Someone asked a bit ago for numbers on DG's season, so here they are

[Money_Milton]

I'm not sure who it was or how to go back and look, but I finally finished charting (preliminary) the '19 season. There's still stuff I want to go back/am in the process of double checking/adding in, but here's a in depth look at DG's numbers.

Some more stuff I want to look at is release time correlation with success, numbers under pressure, vs. man and zone, etc.. open to suggestions as well.

*It's a pain in the ass to upload pictures and add them all in here so I'm just going to copy and paste my tweets, sorry in advance*

 

[Knight Strength]

Great thread. I miss football.

 

[Money_Milton]

Great thread. I miss football.

same, mostly because I have to find a real job now lol

 

[KnightVision82]

Bottom line just like we saw in his H.S. film he has a great, accurate arm. Didn't realize that he arcs the passes nicely so his receivers can run under the ball unlike Mack or Wimbush last season.

 

[mattropolis]

Good Info. Thanks for doing all the associated work and sharing it!

 

[SCKnight]

If he can improve on his field vision and movement as much as KZ did between Freshman and Sophomore years...damn

 

[Money_Milton]

If he can improve on his field vision and movement as much as KZ did between Freshman and Sophomore years...damn

Ya this is probably biggest thing, but I don't exactly know how limited he was this season in terms of playbook/having full field reads so it's really hard to comment about it, but there were times he kind of forced balls where he had someone open on other side of field (again not knowing the context around this).. so I definitely think he can grow.

The only INT he really threw that was him getting confused by coverage was the against Pitt in the back corner of the end zone,, and that's usually the toughest adjustment from levels.

 

[SCKnight]

Ya this is probably biggest thing, but I don't exactly know how limited he was this season in terms of playbook/having full field reads so it's really hard to comment about it, but there were times he kind of forced balls where he had someone open on other side of field (again not knowing the context around this).. so I definitely think he can grow.

The only INT he really threw that was him getting confused by coverage was the against Pitt in the back corner of the end zone,, and that's usually the toughest adjustment from levels.

I don't think anyone will know until fall season. Hopefully he improves rather than staying stagnant. While I think KZ is special, and it is not necessarily fair to judge against his standards, I would not mind having two special QBs from Hawaii.

 

[Wings0fred]

Good Info. Thanks for doing all the associated work and sharing it!

Agreed - always a pleasure to read through your findings!

My takeaway is that, even if DG only marginally improves year to year, we are in great shape at QB. If he has a MM jump from freshman year...we will probably be good enough for an NFL wild card spot.

 

[PhDee]

I'm not sure who it was or how to go back and look, but I finally finished charting (preliminary) the '19 season. There's still stuff I want to go back/am in the process of double checking/adding in, but here's a in depth look at DG's numbers.

Some more stuff I want to look at is release time correlation with success, numbers under pressure, vs. man and zone, etc.. open to suggestions as well.

*It's a pain in the ass to upload pictures and add them all in here so I'm just going to copy and paste my tweets, sorry in advance*

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It was me who asked!! Very impressive work, you clearly have a background in data science..What does EPA stand for?

I also agree that looking at his decision making under various defensive schemes is interesting

 

[Money_Milton]

It was me who asked!! Very impressive work, you clearly have a background in data science..What does EPA stand for?

I also agree that looking at his decision making under various defensive schemes is interesting

I do not sadly, trying to teach myself some programming during the off-season, but we'll see how that goes haha.

EPA is Expected Points added,, so at the beginning of every play there's Expected points from that current situation.. it factors in field position, time, quarter, down and distance.. essentially goes from -2 (safety) to 7 (touchdown), so EPA is the expected points after the play is over (new situation) subtracted by the EP at the beginning of the play. I'm not very good at explaining things..

So this link is prob better:

http://www.advancedfootballanalytic...s-explained/expected-points-and-epa-explained

 

[Endeavor.]

Deep balls are cool but what makes a QB good in my eyes are just simple things like picking up a 3rd and 6. Those plays make up most of the game.

Our playbook needs some expansion with schemes that get a guy open across the middle for a 10 yard gain to make this deep ball really worth it.

Whats the point of getting a 50 yard pass into the red zone if we have no plays that work under 20 yards of field.

 

[Knight Strength]

Deep balls are cool but what makes a QB good in my eyes are just simple things like picking up a 3rd and 6. Those plays make up most of the game.

Our playbook needs some expansion with schemes that get a guy open across the middle for a 10 yard gain to make this deep ball really worth it.

Whats the point of getting a 50 yard pass into the red zone if we have no plays that work under 20 yards of field.

Marlon slant!

 

[JAFFX2]

same, mostly because I have to find a real job now lol

I thought by now you would be an on staff advisor to CJH!

 

[SCKnight]

Deep balls are cool but what makes a QB good in my eyes are just simple things like picking up a 3rd and 6. Those plays make up most of the game.

Our playbook needs some expansion with schemes that get a guy open across the middle for a 10 yard gain to make this deep ball really worth it.

Whats the point of getting a 50 yard pass into the red zone if we have no plays that work under 20 yards of field.

Looking at this data was this a real or perceived issue? Our Red zone stats:
Games Attempts Scores Score% TDs TD% FG FG%
13 57 45 78.95 33 57.89 1 2 21.05

This is a better percentage than 2017, but not as good as 2018 (2018 was amazing). I would put the difference down to a veteran QB vs. Freshman QB. KZ was a master in the red zone. Also I think that the playbook with DG will open considerably with a season under his belt and a full summer to install more of the playbook.

But some other stats

Total scoring #6 nationally
Rushing #21
Passing #10

Overall nothing to complain about too much

 

[PhDee]

I do not sadly, trying to teach myself some programming during the off-season, but we'll see how that goes haha.

EPA is Expected Points added,, so at the beginning of every play there's Expected points from that current situation.. it factors in field position, time, quarter, down and distance.. essentially goes from -2 (safety) to 7 (touchdown), so EPA is the expected points after the play is over (new situation) subtracted by the EP at the beginning of the play. I'm not very good at explaining things..

So this link is prob better:

http://www.advancedfootballanalytic...s-explained/expected-points-and-epa-explained

Got it now, thanks!

 

[Money_Milton]

Very bored ! Here is man vs. zone splits.

 

[PhDee]

Very bored ! Here is man vs. zone splits.

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Cool stuff, thanks! So DG is a *better* passer against zone but is way more *productive* versus man.

I never played football, but I wonder if coaches have their method of running quasi random controlled trials of plays to see what works. Or are they using the eye test based on their instincts?

 

[Knight Strength]

Awesome! We appreciate the fruits of your boredom.

What do you use to make your figures?

 

[Money_Milton]

Awesome! We appreciate the fruits of your boredom.

What do you use to make your figures?

Assuming you mean graphs, I just did this on google sheets,, I am not very good with that kinda stuff lol, but it's more eye appealing than posting just numbers

 

[Money_Milton]

Cool stuff, thanks! So DG is a *better* passer against zone but is way more *productive* versus man.

I never played football, but I wonder if coaches have their method of running quasi random controlled trials of plays to see what works. Or are they using the eye test based on their instincts?

He was on average throwing the ball 2 yards down field more vs. Man (higher degree of difficulty) so it's tough to look at completion and say *better*. He made more mistakes vs. Zone than Man (in terms of turnover worthy throws) as well.

Definitely much more efficient vs. Man.

Man vs. Zone splits for one season is most likely just noise (PFF studied this with Mahomes), but I think it could be a reflection on scheme.. Heupel's offense is a lot about space and just being better than your defender and throwing vs. man would probably be better for that.

I wouldn't actually put much stock in these splits, just something that was easy to create,,, and I don't have many ideas of other stuff to look at haha

 

[Knight Strength]

Assuming you mean graphs, I just did this on google sheets,, I am not very good with that kinda stuff lol, but it's more eye appealing than posting just numbers

Yea I agree 100%. I always look at the tables/figures/graphs before I decide to read a whole paper.

 

[PhDee]

He was on average throwing the ball 2 yards down field more vs. Man (higher degree of difficulty) so it's tough to look at completion and say *better*. He made more mistakes vs. Zone than Man (in terms of turnover worthy throws) as well.

Definitely much more efficient vs. Man.

Man vs. Zone splits for one season is most likely just noise (PFF studied this with Mahomes), but I think it could be a reflection on scheme.. Heupel's offense is a lot about space and just being better than your defender and throwing vs. man would probably be better for that.

I wouldn't actually put much stock in these splits, just something that was easy to create,,, and I don't have many ideas of other stuff to look at haha

This is all really cool, wouldn't be surprised if Huep takes a look at this lol

 

[Money_Milton]

Don't really know if anyone is interested in this, but here's every route run by a UCF receiver last season (that you could see)

Wanted to show route combos, but it has put my brain in a pretzel

 

[KnightVision82]

Lots of work here. I'll give my analytical input in July after I study this more

Bottom line is if DG improves like KZ did in his ability to see the field quickly, look out competition.

The other thing is it wasn't unexpected that on occasion we saw our true freshmen QB intimidated by other teams or frustrated by his freshmen (newbee) struggles. However, that's should be a thing of the past now that he's got a successful season under his belt and another off season to train

 

[Wings0fred]

Don't really know if anyone is interested in this, but here's every route run by a UCF receiver last season (that you could see)

Wanted to show route combos, but it has put my brain in a pretzel

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Neat stuff (as always!)

question: When a receiver went out to block for a bubble screen, did the blocking WR count as “none” or “bubble”?

1 out of every 10 routes being nothing seems high at first but, if I recall, we only utilized half the field a lot.

 

[PhDee]

Lots of work here. I'll give my analytical input in July after I study this more

Bottom line is if DG improves like KZ did in his ability to see the field quickly, look out competition.

The other thing is it wasn't unexpected that on occasion we saw our true freshmen QB intimidated by other teams or frustrated by his freshmen (newbee) struggles. However, that's should be a thing of the past now that he's got a successful season under his belt and another off season to train

I actually think the opposite about DG...I saw several opponents on different teams try to rattle DG, push him around, and get in his face during the season and all I saw from him is fighting back and getting back in their face..I.think he's not afraid of anybody and he's a fighter

 

[Knight Strength]

I actually think the opposite about DG...I saw several opponents on different teams try to rattle DG, push him around, and get in his face during the season and all I saw from him is fighting back and getting back in their face..I.think he's not afraid of anybody and he's a fighter

I saw this too. I don't think he was intimidated. I'm sure he felt pressure at times though.

 

[Money_Milton]

Neat stuff (as always!)

question: When a receiver went out to block for a bubble screen, did the blocking WR count as “none” or “bubble”?

1 out of every 10 routes being nothing seems high at first but, if I recall, we only utilized half the field a lot.

so receivers that blocked on screen passes are labeled as DSB (downfield screen block),, none just means they didn't run a route on the play.. UCF had a lot of plays where only one half of the field ran routes.

 

[BlakNGoldAllDay]

 

[Wings0fred]

so receivers that blocked on screen passes are labeled as DSB (downfield screen block),, none just means they didn't run a route on the play.. UCF had a lot of plays where only one half of the field ran routes.

Aaaaah that’s the key. Didn’t know the acronym.

thanks!

 

[PhDee]

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Dammit I'm jealous