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Strength of resume

SublimeKnight

Golden Knight
Feb 14, 2011
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This is an interesting article about how a playoff committee should look at wins/losses/SoS...

https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...ll-2018-strength-of-schedule-week-10-rankings

What I found interesting, is that, strictly by the numbers, UCF's 7-0 is actually a good bit better than Notre Dame's 8-0.

Another tidbit from the article. If UCF wants to look like a top 5 team, they should beat temple by 16 points tomorrow. It's also noted, that that is kind of skewed, since Temple is playing so much better as of late.
 
I like sbnations (Bill somebody?) stuff. Like other polls, even if its unfair, it is consistent. And consistent is something people can live with.
 
I check S&P+ and Colley Matrix every week. Would be cool to watch us move up in these (or other) rankings as our schedule gets tougher. Also looking for PITT and Memphis to help if they can.
 
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I check S&P+ and Colley Matrix every week. Would be cool to watch us move up in these (or other) rankings as our schedule gets tougher. Also looking for PITT and Memphis to help if they can.
Those teams can help, but I'm really more interested in what we can do against Temple. They are a legit top 10 defense, especially at stopping the run. If we win at all, I'll be happy. I think this team is capable of winning by a TD though. If we win by more than 2 scores, than UCF is better than I currently think they are.

Straight up matchups, this is the best team left on our schedule. USF might play us tighter/tougher, but that's more about the rivalry.
 
Those teams can help, but I'm really more interested in what we can do against Temple. They are a legit top 10 defense, especially at stopping the run. If we win at all, I'll be happy. I think this team is capable of winning by a TD though. If we win by more than 2 scores, than UCF is better than I currently think they are.

Straight up matchups, this is the best team left on our schedule. USF might play us tighter/tougher, but that's more about the rivalry.
Don't sweat it. We'll just run our 150lb RB between the tackles for the entire 60 minutes and shred them for about 500 yards.
 
Those teams can help, but I'm really more interested in what we can do against Temple. They are a legit top 10 defense, especially at stopping the run. If we win at all, I'll be happy. I think this team is capable of winning by a TD though. If we win by more than 2 scores, than UCF is better than I currently think they are.

Straight up matchups, this is the best team left on our schedule. USF might play us tighter/tougher, but that's more about the rivalry.
Temple is not that good stopping the run. Not sure where you read that
 
Was looking at their rushing defense stats vs Navy and Boston College. They weren’t impressive. I remember Cincinnati getting a few nice runs as well. Not sure how much speed that they have on defense
 
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That's a deceiving stat, because they're 5-3. Just like it would be for UCF. When you're winning most of your games, teams need to give up on the run.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaadef

According to that, they are #1 in pass defense and #2 at stopping explosive plays.

They are #33 against the run though, which is also the toughest we've faced.

I think what it is, is they seem tough to run on between the tackles and that's the only way we try to run. I understand why that is, but I'm just saying this not only is a good defense, they're good against our bag of tricks.

Hopefully Heupel has an alternative to inside run / outside pass.
 
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We have weapons all over the field and Heupel is very good at using the ones we need based on what the defense is giving us. They're going to have to pick their poison and we're gonna make them pay.

BC put up 45 on these guys.
 
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How is ucf resume better than ND?? 0 teams that ucf has beat has a winning record. ND beating Michigan seals the deal
 
How is ucf resume better than ND?? 0 teams that ucf has beat has a winning record. ND beating Michigan seals the deal
In a nutshell, s&p+ evaluates every snap to see how often a team is successful given the situation. That is then weighted against how successful other teams were against that same team.

The idea is that just because UCF played against UCONN and ND played against Michigan, you could still learn how good UCF is compared to ND based on how other teams performed against UCONN and Michigan vs how UCF and ND did.

TLDR; ND might play "better" teams, but UCF is kicking the crap out of lesser teams more convincely
 
So for example: Texas beat OU, Oklahoma State beat Texas so that means oklahoma state will beat OU? That's why i don't like going that route.
 
Is that kinda the theory? Im asking because i really do not know. Not trying to be a smart a$$
 
So for example: Texas beat OU, Oklahoma State beat Texas so that means oklahoma state will beat OU? That's why i don't like going that route.
No. It's down to each individual plays.
On first down, your goal on offense is to pick up 5 yards. On 2nd down, your goal is to pick up at least half of what you need. On 3rd down, you need to pick up a first. That's the gauge for success/failure. If you pick up 3 yards on 2nd and 5, that's a successful play. If you pick up 3 yards on 3rd and 4, that's a failure. The opposite works for the defense.

It's not isolated to single games, but if you want to think about it like that, let's say OU was successful 35% of the time against Texas. OkSt was successful 70% of the time versus Baylor. Texas's defense, over the season is on average successful 70% of the time, while Baylor's is successful 30% of the time. You could infer that OU is better than OkSt based on those numbers, even if Texas beats OU and OkSt blows out Baylor. With different numbers, you could infer the opposite.

This is only the basis of s&p+, it also accounts for explosiveness / stopping explosive plays, special teams, etc, etc. It's all weighed against the competition faced.
 
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How is ucf resume better than ND?? 0 teams that ucf has beat has a winning record. ND beating Michigan seals the deal
So a week 1 win seals the deal, and then we here the pundits say to ignore Texas’s loss To Maryland....because it was week one. So which argument is it?

BTW, Temple was 5-3 before we played them, and if that QB had played in the first two games I surely think they would have won them and been 7-1 instead of 5-3, but it is still a winning record. We have games left against two teams that are likely to have 1-2 losses when we play, then assuming we play Houston they will probably be 11-1. So by the end of the season (including conference championship)we are probably going to play 4 teams with winning records, and 3 teams with10 wins.

Notre Dame hasn’t lost so they deserve to be where they are at. Like us, they can’t help it that a bunch of teams that are on there schedule happen to be having poor seasons. If you’re going to play the “eye test” card for this particular argument, At the same time you gotta question the optics of notre Dame winning a home game against Ball State 24-16, a home game against Vandy 22-17, and a home game against Pitt 19-14. We smoked Pitt 45-14. The other ranked team Pitt has played is Penn State and they lost 51-6.

Michigan will certainly have a winning record and I would think 10 wins
Ball State is 3-7; they will finish with losing record.
Vandy is 4-5 and will finish with a losing record.
Wake is 4-4, we’ll see if they finish with a winning record...probably not.
Stanford is 5-3 and will likely finish with a winning record.
VaTech is 4-3 but it is unknown if they finish with a winning record.
Pitt is 4-4 but it is unknown if they finish with a winning record.
Navy is 2-6.
Northwestern is 5-3 and will likely finish 7-5 or 8-4.
FSU is 4-4 but it is unknown if they finish with a winning record.
Syracuse is 6-2 and will finish with a winning record.
USC is 4-4 but it is unknown if they finish with a winning record.

So they may end up playing more winning teams than us, or may not. They’re likely to only play one team with ten wins, while we’re likely to play three. This is why you have to wait until the end of the season to really asses a teams record, and who they have played and beaten. Arguing before that is just opinion.

I’d also argue things like we’ve had to put in place an entire new staff top to bottom, as well as implement new offensive and defensive schemes. They get a lot more money, and recruits (on paper) so they should be better than they are. Home games against Ball State, Vandy, and Pitt should have been blowouts.

In the end it doesn’t matter because unless our OOC schedule consists of @Bama, @Clemson, @LSU, and @Notre Dame the pundits just say we don’t play a hard enough schedule....even though the likelihood of any of those teams playing a home and home with us is 0%.
 
Bump. Same link. It's been updated.

Points of interest:
Fresno #6
UCF #9
Ohio State #10
Notre Dame #18
 
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