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Strength of Schedule

surfer98

surfer98

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Nov 30, 2017
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AAC should require all teams to schedule only power 6 teams for out of conference games to increase our strength of schedule. Playing group of 5 teams and FCS teams only hurts our case to be included. We should try and use our connection with Georgia Tech to schedule that game every year. This would be fun for all the Georgia UCF alumni (and easy road game for Florida Almuni and students) to take over Bobby Dodd!!
 
I live north of Atlanta and Georgia Tech isn't that popular except with Alumni. Similar to UCF in Orlando. Everything is about the bulldogs, Auburn, Alabama, etc. Georgia Tech and UCF would only stand to benefit. It would be very beneficial to both schools for recruiting, etc. Just a thought. Also would love to see UCF more visible in other states and would love to get to see UCF play more. There are more UCF alumni in Georgia than any other state outside of Florida.
 
Of course we could feast on Kansas, vandy, wake forest, Illinois, Purdue, Rutgers, Oregon st, Colorado types EVERY year, but P5 Charlie won't let those games be scheduled.
 
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We should have written in the deal with Frost for Nebraska to play us a certain amount of games home and away. Somehow we scheduled North Carolina and Pittsburgh for next season. There were willing to play us. If we added one more power 5 team and not have scheduled FAU next year we would have done what I discussed early, only power 5 out of conference games. Our schedule really hurt our credibility this season.
 
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Somebody tell Danny White. This is a brilliant idea
giphy.gif
 
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This is exactly what we shouldn't do.
This is not how the P5 schedule and they end up with higher Sagarin ratings than the AAC. Think on that.
 
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SublimeKnight said:
This is exactly what we shouldn't do.
This is not how the P5 schedule and they end up with higher Sagarin ratings than the AAC. Think on that.
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Ok but isn't their rating high because they play 8 or 9 P5 games in conference? We play 0, so 3 P5 would be a better than 2. Anyway, as said earlier, good luck with that, it's not like we aren't trying to do exactly that. Does anyone remember a year or 2 ago when Alabama was whining that they couldn't get anyone to play them on a certain date which we also had open, yet ...? I'm guessing they settled with a FCS
 
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surfer98 said:
I live north of Atlanta and Georgia Tech isn't that popular except with Alumni. Similar to UCF in Orlando. Everything is about the bulldogs, Auburn, Alabama, etc. Georgia Tech and UCF would only stand to benefit. It would be very beneficial to both schools for recruiting, etc. Just a thought. Also would love to see UCF more visible in other states and would love to get to see UCF play more. There are more UCF alumni in Georgia than any other state outside of Florida.
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I have a feeling that if Georgia could legally stop playing Georgia Tech they would.
 
surfer98 said:
We should have written in the deal with Frost for Nebraska to play us a certain amount of games home and away. Somehow we scheduled North Carolina and Pittsburgh for next season. There were willing to play us. If we added one more power 5 team and not have scheduled FAU next year we would have done what I discussed early, only power 5 out of conference games. Our schedule really hurt our credibility this season.
Click to expand...

Hopefully DW negotiated that into the buyout.
 
surfer98 said:
We should have written in the deal with Frost for Nebraska to play us a certain amount of games home and away. Somehow we scheduled North Carolina and Pittsburgh for next season. There were willing to play us. If we added one more power 5 team and not have scheduled FAU next year we would have done what I discussed early, only power 5 out of conference games. Our schedule really hurt our credibility this season.
Click to expand...
With Kiffin, FAU is no easy victory anymore. Don't sleep on #theFAU
 
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80'sKnight said:
Ok but isn't their rating high because they play 8 or 9 P5 games in conference? We play 0, so 3 P5 would be a better than 2. Anyway, as said earlier, good luck with that, it's not like we aren't trying to do exactly that. Does anyone remember a year or 2 ago when Alabama was whining that they couldn't get anyone to play them on a certain date which we also had open, yet ...? I'm guessing they settled with a FCS
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Sagarin doesn't have any special weighting for P5s. They are p5 because they win their ooc cupcake games.
 
SublimeKnight said:
Sagarin doesn't have any special weighting for P5s. They are p5 because they win their ooc cupcake games.
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s

ok Didn't know that about Sagarin. While we were slowing inching up polls at the end of the season we were sinking in Sagarin.
 
Psycho Jim said:
WINNING your OOC games increases your SOS

Losing does not.
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This is true from a conference perspective.

To a team, losing doesn't hurt your SOS, it hurts your SOR. However from a conference perspective, losing hurts the conference's SOS.

For instance, if USF loses Illinois next year, it doesn't affect their SOS (but it hurts their SOR). However, it hurts UCF's SOS (and SOR) because we play USF.

So when you see that a B1G team has a higher SOS than UCF, it's because their conference mates won their OOC games (probably to cupcakes). This is also where money comes in. B1G and SEC teams have the cash to buy one and done games, where they control the crowd, the refs, the replay booth...

If we demand that Tulane go and play @LSU, they're only going to get a one and done series with them and we're playing right into their hands. Our bad teams need to exclusively schedule bad G5 teams they can beat. The upper end of our conference can schedule the occasional P5s, when we get fair conditions.
 
surfer98 said:
AAC should require all teams to schedule only power 6 teams for out of conference games to increase our strength of schedule. Playing group of 5 teams and FCS teams only hurts our case to be included. We should try and use our connection with Georgia Tech to schedule that game every year. This would be fun for all the Georgia UCF alumni (and easy road game for Florida Almuni and students) to take over Bobby Dodd!!
Click to expand...

How do you think SOS is calculated?

It certainly doesn't work the way you're implying.
 
KnightsAreForReal said:
With Kiffin, FAU is no easy victory anymore. Don't sleep on #theFAU
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The Kiffin clan has certainly turned the FAU program around. I caught a few games and they looked solid. Agressive hard hitting defense (Al-Shair being the linchpin) now coupled with a creative and effective offense with Driscoll behind center. I coached a couple of their players in youth football (Al Shair being one) and my son goes to school there now, so I watched more of their games than I normally would. With their best running back coming back (the one mentioned above) I think their game with you will be better than your game with USF (who will likely fall off with Flowers gone).
 
G8RLegist said:
The Kiffin clan has certainly turned the FAU program around. I caught a few games and they looked solid. Agressive hard hitting defense (Al-Shair being the linchpin) now coupled with a creative and effective offense with Driscoll behind center. I coached a couple of their players in youth football (Al Shair being one) and my son goes to school there now, so I watched more of their games than I normally would. With their best running back coming back (the one mentioned above) I think their game with you will be better than your game with USF (who will likely fall off with Flowers gone).
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I think they are good, but have to consider the CUSA is pretty weak. The only OOC game they won was against an FCS team. Navy stomped them, and the 2nd place team in their division (8-4 FIU) we stomped by 44. The drop off between AAC and CUSA is much greater than the P5 to the AAC.
 
hemightbejeremy said:
I think they are good, but have to consider the CUSA is pretty weak. The only OOC game they won was against an FCS team. Navy stomped them, and the 2nd place team in their division (8-4 FIU) we stomped by 44. The drop off between AAC and CUSA is much greater than the P5 to the AAC.
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All very true, but their conference wasn't any better the last 5 years and they still couldn't win more than 3 games a season. This year they won 10 (with two of the losses being to Navy and Wisconsin) and the Conference title. That's a huge jump in one year. Larger than UCF made last year. Are they one of the top teams in the nation? Heck no. But are they a team that could sneak up on a very good team that took them for granted? Absolutely.
 
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ucfversusbcs said:
These P5 socialite trolls visit our boards with their patronizing remarks, back handed compliments and "tips" on how to be respected yet where are these socialite trolls who would drop interest in B1G football if they lost their p5 status, why aren't they standing up for UCF when Nebraska's future OOC doesn't include UCF?
https://nebraska.247sports.com/Bolt...d-changes-to-its-upcoming-schedules-112222751
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Here’s the thing, if UCF was given the same amount of money as Nebraska and Nub was given the same amount of money as UCF over the next five years, who do you think we be perceived as the “power” program? I promise you UCF would be much better than 4-8 playing the same schedule as Nub.
 
ucfversusbcs said:
These P5 socialite trolls visit our boards with their patronizing remarks, back handed compliments and "tips" on how to be respected yet where are these socialite trolls who would drop interest in B1G football if they lost their p5 status, why aren't they standing up for UCF when Nebraska's future OOC doesn't include UCF?
https://nebraska.247sports.com/Bolt...d-changes-to-its-upcoming-schedules-112222751
Click to expand...

Are you referring to me? I simply don’t care who Nebraska plays, in conference or out of conference. But just as a point of information, UCF does not have room for another OOC road game in 2020.
 
NestaKnight1 said:
Here’s the thing, if UCF was given the same amount of money as Nebraska and Nub was given the same amount of money as UCF over the next five years, who do you think we be perceived as the “power” program? I promise you UCF would be much better than 4-8 playing the same schedule as Nub.
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My point is the Nub (as you call them why didnt i think of that?) socialite fans and theyre socialite because if P5 was removed they wouldnt be fans of FBS football, were coming to our boards and spouting off advice for our program yet where's the Nub fans outrage when we're being left off their ooc schedule?
If the Nub fans really are genuine about their opinion of us, they should be upset we aren't on their schedule, otherwise the mods should have ban them instantly as they bring nothing to the table and even their attempts at nuance is coming apart at the seams.
 
HappyNapper said:
Most p5 teams play 10 P5 teams every season. most p5 teams dont play any FCS schools MOST not all.
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9 of those are in thier conference. We can't play 9 P5 games. The question is how can we get credit for playing in our conference. How can we make the AAC P6 based on Saragin/SOS. The answer is not in the B1G 9 conference games, but what they do in the 3 OOC games. Which is NOT playing 3 P5 games. It's 2 G4 you win 80%+ of time and a P5 you win at least half the time.
 
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SublimeKnight said:
9 of those are in thier conference. We can't play 9 P5 games. The question is how can we get credit for playing in our conference. How can we make the AAC P6 based on Saragin/SOS. The answer is not in the B1G 9 conference games, but what they do in the 3 OOC games. Which is NOT playing 3 P5 games. It's 2 G4 you win 80%+ of time and a P5 you win at least half the time.
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Bingo. The key for the top P5 strength of schedule is to schedule G4 games (or lower AAC teams like Tulane) and win those 95% of the time. Why would they schedule a top matchup with AAC teams that at best you are winning 60-70% if the time of the matchups are right? Perception for a P5 losing to AAC is automatically a bad loss. Even if it really isn’t.
 
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Another way of improving SOS is a difficult one...all teams in the AAC win an impressive majority of their ooc games especially against the P5. Sure UCF and USF took care of their p5 opponents, but UConn for example didn't. What hurt our perception with UConn the most is losing to Mizzou. Going into that game, UConn was on a 3 game winning streak and Mizzou started the season 2-5, trending slightly upwards after beating Idaho. Uconn was considered slightly better based on trends, but they went on to lose by 40. This is where the P5 socialites beat their chest and say see even a crap P5 can outclass a middle of the road AAC team on a 3 game win streak!!! There's other examples. UCF losing to Mizzou in 2012 is one. FSU destroying on the MAC Michigans who had a better record is another.
I noticed we've improved against the ACC for example like 10-12 or something since our inception, but those games in the middle count if you want to perception to change.
The best example of G5 middle of the road beating SEC middle of the road was Wyoming's 35-7 win over Tennessee.
Otherwise 8 out of 10 times, the Vandy's and Kentucky's have beaten middle of the road to solid G5 teams.
 
Another idea to test and it worked for Mississppi State why cant it work for UCF? How about do these one and dones with Top 10 teams, maybe get a win or maybe lose, but then go undefeated and destroy everyone else - some may actually have good records so they have to consider that we beat good teams too. Maybe we get more credit just for playing say for example Auburn, Bama and LSU (the good losses)?
 
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ucfversusbcs said:
Another idea to test and it worked for Mississppi State why cant it work for UCF? How about do these one and dones with Top 10 teams, maybe get a win or maybe lose, but then go undefeated and destroy everyone else - some may actually have good records so they have to consider that we beat good teams too. Maybe we get more credit just for playing say for example Auburn, Bama and LSU (the good losses)?
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My problem with one and dones, is the officiating. This isn't the late-80s when FSU and Miami could go anywhere and the only extra disadvantage was crowd noise. Back then, college officials all dreamed of being NFL officials. Today, I'm betting the B1G outpays the NFL. Then there's the replay booth, who combined with on field officials can disqualify players for targeting.
 
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ucfversusbcs said:
Sure UCF and USF took care of their p5 opponents, but UConn for example didn't.
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That is a serious problem and not an easy one for us to solve. All the P5s have thier Vandys, Wakes, Illinois, etc. They get them to schedule appropriately to limit the damage. Our problem is we don't know who are Alabama is and who are Vandy is from one year to the next. I want to believe that we've turned a corner, but 2 years ago we were winless and Temple won the AAC. If I told you in 3 years that UH or Memphis would win the AAC and the other would be last, could you tell me with confidence which is which? Until we get consistency with coaches, everyone has to schedule conservative OOC.
 
SublimeKnight said:
My problem with one and dones, is the officiating. This isn't the late-80s when FSU and Miami could go anywhere and the only extra disadvantage was crowd noise. Back then, college officials all dreamed of being NFL officials. Today, I'm betting the B1G outpays the NFL. Then there's the replay booth, who combined with on field officials can disqualify players for targeting.
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...but but we should get CFP points for even being on the field! At least thats what happened with Miss State.
 
I would think playing a top 10 team close in a nationally televised game would do more for a school's reputation than blowing out FIU in a regional broadcast. Fair or not.
 
ucfversusbcs said:
My point is the Nub (as you call them why didnt i think of that?) socialite fans and theyre socialite because if P5 was removed they wouldnt be fans of FBS football, were coming to our boards and spouting off advice for our program yet where's the Nub fans outrage when we're being left off their ooc schedule?
If the Nub fans really are genuine about their opinion of us, they should be upset we aren't on their schedule, otherwise the mods should have ban them instantly as they bring nothing to the table and even their attempts at nuance is coming apart at the seams.
Click to expand...

I agree with you. I was trying to illustrate that if the playing field was truly level, UCF would accomplish more with the same amount of assets.
 
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G8RLegist said:
I would think playing a top 10 team close in a nationally televised game would do more for a school's reputation than blowing out FIU in a regional broadcast. Fair or not.
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Losing the game to a top 10 team would mean nothing. Navy lost @ top 10 Notre Dame by 7. Nobody cared. SMU trailed @ TCU 35-29 entering the 4th quarter before TCU pulled away. Then 2 of the worst teams in the conference got blown out by Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Unless the games are won nobody cares. Also if a team is top 10 and loses to an AAC team odds are they aren't sniffing the top 10 any more anyway. Houston beat Arizona on the road who was ranked top 25 in early November. Memphis beat a ranked UCLA. It is hard for any team to beat a top 10 team anyway no matter the conference.
 
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