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The Heupel Effect (Turd Effect)

U C to the F

Silver Knight
Feb 15, 2021
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So I’ve always been curious as to how negatively Heupel actually makes his teams’ defense. Decided to Google it, and wouldn’t you know, he makes them terrible. Common theme....his offense blows out the weak teams but they get worked against the good teams. Sound familiar?

Found the following link on Missouri defensive rankings below pretty telling, par for the course. He was there 2016 and 2017, but check out the defensive rankings the year before he got there. Now I know, you all hate bashing the Turd, but you also stuck up for his “great” offense and bashed Randy Shannon’s “bad” defense. I’ve been saying, the defensive performance is a direct correlation to the Heupel Effect more than the Randy Effect.

 
You should do the same analysis for the Malzahn/Chizik effect and or the Frost/O’Leary effect. Be interesting contrast/comparison.
 
So I’ve always been curious as to how negatively Heupel actually makes his teams’ defense. Decided to Google it, and wouldn’t you know, he makes them terrible. Common theme....his offense blows out the weak teams but they get worked against the good teams. Sound familiar?

Found the following link on Missouri defensive rankings below pretty telling, par for the course. He was there 2016 and 2017, but check out the defensive rankings the year before he got there. Now I know, you all hate bashing the Turd, but you also stuck up for his “great” offense and bashed Randy Shannon’s “bad” defense. I’ve been saying, the defensive performance is a direct correlation to the Heupel Effect more than the Randy Effect.

His teams went 28-8. He won a conference title (using a backup QB). He played in a NY6 game (using a backup QB).

His losses:
1. 2018 - Lost 40-32 to 10-3 LSU at neutral site Fiesta Bowl.
***New true freshman QB playing, which is usually a disaster unless you are Bama, Clemson or Ohio State.
2. 2019 - Lost 35-34 @ 8-5 Pitt
3. 2019 - Lost 27-24 @ 11-3 Cincy
4. 2019 - Lost 34-31 @ 4-8 Tulsa (Bad loss but for some reason they own us playing on their field; Tulsa is 5-0 against us on their field).
5. 2020 - Lost 34-26 at home to 6-3 Tulsa
6. 2020 - Lost 50-49 @ 8-3 Memphis
7. 2020 - Lost 36-33 at home to 9-1 Cincy
8. 2020 - Lost 49-23 to 11-1 BYU at neutral site Boca Raton Bowl

I only see one blowout.

The total record of the teams we lost to is 67-27. I'd say his results have to do more with the situation, than simply blaming offense or defense. I can't fault him for losing to LSU in the Fiesta Bowl. I was shocked we won the AAC title game, and weren't blown off the field by LSU, using a backup QB. Good thing that AAC title game was at home. If it was on the road we probably do not make the miraculous comeback we did make.

2019 we were playing a true freshman (who played more like a QB in his second season) and went 3-3 on the road. I wasn't expecting our record to be (10-3), nevermind knowing that just a play or two in each of those games goes our way, we may win those games. It's harder to win on the road than at home (home teams have like a 20% advantage), especially with a true freshman QB. They get rattled. In 2019 only 40 teams managed a better road record than us. Only 9 teams in 2019 managed a better than .500 record against ranked opponents, and this only takes into account the record of teams at the time the game was played. That means 121 teams couldn't manage to do better than .500 against ranked opponents, nevermind playing ranked opponents on the road.

2020 we just weren't as good. COVID wreaked havoc on how teams practiced, prepared, traveled, etc.. Depth was a big factor due to opt-outs, and especially late in the season as players were kicked off the team or just decided not to play any longer.

I would 100% agree it is clear that when your offense is that efficient, your defense needs to be that much better (or have a very good turnover margin). Not making up excuses for him. Just saying my opinion is the situations seemed to outweigh X's and O's, and give credit where credit is due. We lost to some good teams.

I thank Josh for his contribution. He filled in nicely and did fine for a first time head coach. Almost any new hire is a gamble, even if they have previous, successful experience. I'm not sorry to see him go, either. I think we greatly upgraded our coaching staff, whether that pans out on the field is another story that will unfold. Looking forward to seeing what we look like in the fall.
 
I am continuously amazed at how some people seem to have no real perspective. This obsession and hatred with a coach that did (at a minimum) an above average job as a coach is just perplexing. I get it, UCF needed a change, and appears to have gotten an excellent new leader. But geez. Move on dude.
 
Best offense in the SEC in 2017... but couldn't beat anyone with a decent record.
Because their defense was ranked #95. That's not on Heupel. Imagine their record if they had had the 2015 offense ranked #125, the year before Heupel arrived. In 2016 their offense was ranked #13. That's quite a jump.

Their 2015 record was 5-7 (1-7 in SEC play)
2016: 4-8 (2-6 in SEC play) - Heupel
2017: 7-6 (4-4 in SEC play) - Heupel
2018: 8-4 (4-4 in SEC play)
2019: 6-6 (3-5 in SEC play)
2020: 5-5 in SEC play

Prior to 2015 they had quite a nice run through 2007 with several 10 win seasons but out of several chances, they only won 1 game that mattered....the 2013-2014 season Cotton Bowl (which was a BCS Bowl that year). No conference titles.

Prior to 2007, you have to go back to 1960 to find a season where the won 10 games. They were conference co-champs in 1969 and 1960. Last outright conference title is 1945. So out of their first 105 years of football, they had one season where they won 10 games...one. They somehow managed to only have won season where they didn't win game, although they do have 7 seasons where they only won 1 game (most of those seasons a million years ago in the early 1900's). Their program essentially sucks. They collect checks because they happen to exist 100 years ago. Some teams are up and down over long periods of time but when you have 100 years of sucking I think you can call that a trend.
 
The turd effect part of the title is what might have some of you lathered up and sticking up for CJH. The point of the post is that there is clearly a correlation to the offensive scheme and the stress it puts on a defense. It is a fact and all you have to do is look at the stats that the OP was referencing........
 
So I’ve always been curious as to how negatively Heupel actually makes his teams’ defense. Decided to Google it, and wouldn’t you know, he makes them terrible. Common theme....his offense blows out the weak teams but they get worked against the good teams. Sound familiar?

Found the following link on Missouri defensive rankings below pretty telling, par for the course. He was there 2016 and 2017, but check out the defensive rankings the year before he got there. Now I know, you all hate bashing the Turd, but you also stuck up for his “great” offense and bashed Randy Shannon’s “bad” defense. I’ve been saying, the defensive performance is a direct correlation to the Heupel Effect more than the Randy Effect.

Thanks for posting. Always interesting!
 
The turd effect part of the title is what might have some of you lathered up and sticking up for CJH. The point of the post is that there is clearly a correlation to the offensive scheme and the stress it puts on a defense. It is a fact and all you have to do is look at the stats that the OP was referencing........
You mean fast paced offenses put stress on the Defense. How enlightening. I'm sure the correlation has only happened with Heup. :rolleyes: I just don't get villainizing a coach who led the program to back to back ranked seasons during the only 2 real season he coached. Be disappointed, be critical, be glad we have a new coach. But don't be a douchebag. It just serves to fulfil so many stereotypes we try to avoid.
 
You mean fast paced offenses put stress on the Defense. How enlightening. I'm sure the correlation has only happened with Heup. :rolleyes: I just don't get villainizing a coach who led the program to back to back ranked seasons during the only 2 real season he coached. Be disappointed, be critical, be glad we have a new coach. But don't be a douchebag. It just serves to fulfil so many stereotypes we try to avoid.
It is beyond pathetic when fans on this board express an opinion and then get personally attacked with sophomoric name calling because someone disagrees.........
 
You mean fast paced offenses put stress on the Defense. How enlightening. I'm sure the correlation has only happened with Heup. :rolleyes: I just don't get villainizing a coach who led the program to back to back ranked seasons during the only 2 real season he coached. Be disappointed, be critical, be glad we have a new coach. But don't be a douchebag. It just serves to fulfil so many stereotypes we try to avoid.
Agree. I think he made mistakes and had a flawed offense but don't see a point in bashing him. Not that that's what OP was doing but in general.
 
JH had huge shoes to fill and almost managed to do it. Cut the guy some slack, appreciate the buy out money for the program, and move on to supporting our new coaches.
He sucks. Managed to take a program at the top to 6-4 in three years. Not just the record but the team talent went rapidly downhill under him. The man is an incompetent program manager.

Good riddance to him, Golesh, Hazle and the rest of his acolytes.
 
You can’t say a good scoring offense leads to a bad defense. Most of the top 15 teams have good offenses abd defense. You don’t get tired if you force 3 and outs.
 
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It is beyond pathetic when fans on this board express an opinion and then get personally attacked with sophomoric name calling because someone disagrees.........
Yea, sure bud. Whatever.
 
The turd effect part of the title is what might have some of you lathered up and sticking up for CJH. The point of the post is that there is clearly a correlation to the offensive scheme and the stress it puts on a defense. It is a fact and all you have to do is look at the stats that the OP was referencing........
Some get it others don’t, such is life. It’s the turd effect...
 
You can’t say a good scoring offense leads to a bad defense. Most of the top 15 teams have good offenses abd defense. You don’t get tired if you force 3 and outs.
Closest gimmick offense I’ve seen to the turd’s is Kent St’s. They also couldn’t field a defense, also lit up bad teams and lost to good teams. Most top 15 teams have balance, which is what CGM promised to bring. No team can force 3 and outs every def series either.
 
His teams went 28-8. He won a conference title (using a backup QB). He played in a NY6 game (using a backup QB).

His losses:
1. 2018 - Lost 40-32 to 10-3 LSU at neutral site Fiesta Bowl.
***New true freshman QB playing, which is usually a disaster unless you are Bama, Clemson or Ohio State.
2. 2019 - Lost 35-34 @ 8-5 Pitt
3. 2019 - Lost 27-24 @ 11-3 Cincy
4. 2019 - Lost 34-31 @ 4-8 Tulsa (Bad loss but for some reason they own us playing on their field; Tulsa is 5-0 against us on their field).
5. 2020 - Lost 34-26 at home to 6-3 Tulsa
6. 2020 - Lost 50-49 @ 8-3 Memphis
7. 2020 - Lost 36-33 at home to 9-1 Cincy
8. 2020 - Lost 49-23 to 11-1 BYU at neutral site Boca Raton Bowl

I only see one blowout.

The total record of the teams we lost to is 67-27. I'd say his results have to do more with the situation, than simply blaming offense or defense. I can't fault him for losing to LSU in the Fiesta Bowl. I was shocked we won the AAC title game, and weren't blown off the field by LSU, using a backup QB. Good thing that AAC title game was at home. If it was on the road we probably do not make the miraculous comeback we did make.

2019 we were playing a true freshman (who played more like a QB in his second season) and went 3-3 on the road. I wasn't expecting our record to be (10-3), nevermind knowing that just a play or two in each of those games goes our way, we may win those games. It's harder to win on the road than at home (home teams have like a 20% advantage), especially with a true freshman QB. They get rattled. In 2019 only 40 teams managed a better road record than us. Only 9 teams in 2019 managed a better than .500 record against ranked opponents, and this only takes into account the record of teams at the time the game was played. That means 121 teams couldn't manage to do better than .500 against ranked opponents, nevermind playing ranked opponents on the road.

2020 we just weren't as good. COVID wreaked havoc on how teams practiced, prepared, traveled, etc.. Depth was a big factor due to opt-outs, and especially late in the season as players were kicked off the team or just decided not to play any longer.

I would 100% agree it is clear that when your offense is that efficient, your defense needs to be that much better (or have a very good turnover margin). Not making up excuses for him. Just saying my opinion is the situations seemed to outweigh X's and O's, and give credit where credit is due. We lost to some good teams.

I thank Josh for his contribution. He filled in nicely and did fine for a first time head coach. Almost any new hire is a gamble, even if they have previous, successful experience. I'm not sorry to see him go, either. I think we greatly upgraded our coaching staff, whether that pans out on the field is another story that will unfold. Looking forward to seeing what we look like in the fall.
Give it up, he sucked. Be grateful we now have a real head coach that will stop the bleeding and turn this program around.
 
Closest gimmick offense I’ve seen to the turd’s is Kent St’s. They also couldn’t field a defense, also lit up bad teams and lost to good teams. Most top 15 teams have balance, which is what CGM promised to bring. No team can force 3 and outs every def series either.
I resemble that remark. I still have my Kent State pitchers jacket and hat and glove. Now it’s like tommy boy. Big man little coat. Lol. Baseball team had to work the aisles of the football games every Saturday morning. Rain. Sleet. Snow. Every damn Saturday. To pay for our spring break trip to FL. The worst 4 fall years of my life. We went 0 for three years when I was there. We were Penthouse level bottom 10 famous. Finally Won our last game my senior year. Yay. 1-43. Where was Edelman when We needed him? He was like 7 years old.

ps. We kicked Gator ass in the college World Series though in 2012 I think it was. My high school and college buddy was and is still KSU pitching coach.

most famous KSU baseball. alumni. I played at Thurman Munson memorial stadium. Great catcher. Not much of a pilot.
 
I resemble that remark. I still have my Kent State pitchers jacket and hat and glove. Now it’s like tommy boy. Big man little coat. Lol. Baseball team had to work the aisles of the football games every Saturday morning. Rain. Sleet. Snow. Every damn Saturday. To pay for our spring break trip to FL. The worst 4 fall years of my life. We went 0 for three years when I was there. We were Penthouse level bottom 10 famous. Finally Won our last game my senior year. Yay. 1-43. Where was Edelman when We needed him? He was like 7 years old.

ps. We kicked Gator ass in the college World Series though in 2012 I think it was. My high school and college buddy was and is still KSU pitching coach.

most famous KSU baseball. alumni. I played at Thurman Munson memorial stadium. Great catcher. Not much of a pilot.
I lived in Northern Ohio for my first 12 years or so. My neighbor at the time has a daughter that just graduated while playing softball for them. Her nephew played baseball at Cleveland State but I think they shut program down after his freshman year.
 
I lived in Northern Ohio for my first 12 years or so. My neighbor at the time has a daughter that just graduated while playing softball for them. Her nephew played baseball at Cleveland State but I think they shut program down after his freshman year.
My younger sister also followed me to Kent State and graduated as a RN in her moms footsteps. Met her BFF in college and married the Swimmer Water Polo player from Cleveland state. Awesome dude.

I was born and bred in Orlando and Gainesville but got stuck in Ohio for 10 years through no fault of my own. Akron Ohio. Rubber capital of the world! Met my wife in Ohio when we were 17 and told her in no uncertain terms. Our kids will be born in Florida. Period. And all three were. Lol.
 
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i was thinking about the new transfer rules and how it would have screwed heupel because some key players might have transferred to nebraska (mckenzie, trysten, otis, etc) that offseason. i doubt we go undefeated in the regular season, thus taking a lot of shine off the record that people use to say he was good for UCF.
 
i was thinking about the new transfer rules and how it would have screwed heupel because some key players might have transferred to nebraska (mckenzie, trysten, otis, etc) that offseason. i doubt we go undefeated in the regular season, thus taking a lot of shine off the record that people use to say he was good for UCF.
He was unequivocally good for UCF.
 
It is beyond pathetic when fans on this board express an opinion and then get personally attacked with sophomoric name calling because someone disagrees.........
I actually see things the opposite from most. I feel like his offenses are pretty lethal. I mean, in the SEC if you aren't Bama, LSU, Georgia, Auburn and UF you can't play their game and try to beat them. As Brad Pitt (Billy Beane) says in Moneyball, "If we try to play like the Yankees in here, we will lose to the Yankees out there." They are not going to beat the likes of those teams consistently trying to play the way they do.

We'll see if he ever grows as a head coach and learns to adjust the game to the situation. I mean let's be honest, neither Heupel or Frost ever slowed down. Heupel at least did do it sometimes. Maybe nobody around them brings in scenarios to show them how slowing the game down, or even parts of drives, could lead to wins in close games. Hard to imagine but who knows unless you're on their staffs and in those meetings.
 
His teams went 28-8. He won a conference title (using a backup QB). He played in a NY6 game (using a backup QB).

His losses:
1. 2018 - Lost 40-32 to 10-3 LSU at neutral site Fiesta Bowl.
***New true freshman QB playing, which is usually a disaster unless you are Bama, Clemson or Ohio State.
2. 2019 - Lost 35-34 @ 8-5 Pitt
3. 2019 - Lost 27-24 @ 11-3 Cincy
4. 2019 - Lost 34-31 @ 4-8 Tulsa (Bad loss but for some reason they own us playing on their field; Tulsa is 5-0 against us on their field).
5. 2020 - Lost 34-26 at home to 6-3 Tulsa
6. 2020 - Lost 50-49 @ 8-3 Memphis
7. 2020 - Lost 36-33 at home to 9-1 Cincy
8. 2020 - Lost 49-23 to 11-1 BYU at neutral site Boca Raton Bowl

I only see one blowout.

The total record of the teams we lost to is 67-27. I'd say his results have to do more with the situation, than simply blaming offense or defense. I can't fault him for losing to LSU in the Fiesta Bowl. I was shocked we won the AAC title game, and weren't blown off the field by LSU, using a backup QB. Good thing that AAC title game was at home. If it was on the road we probably do not make the miraculous comeback we did make.

2019 we were playing a true freshman (who played more like a QB in his second season) and went 3-3 on the road. I wasn't expecting our record to be (10-3), nevermind knowing that just a play or two in each of those games goes our way, we may win those games. It's harder to win on the road than at home (home teams have like a 20% advantage), especially with a true freshman QB. They get rattled. In 2019 only 40 teams managed a better road record than us. Only 9 teams in 2019 managed a better than .500 record against ranked opponents, and this only takes into account the record of teams at the time the game was played. That means 121 teams couldn't manage to do better than .500 against ranked opponents, nevermind playing ranked opponents on the road.

2020 we just weren't as good. COVID wreaked havoc on how teams practiced, prepared, traveled, etc.. Depth was a big factor due to opt-outs, and especially late in the season as players were kicked off the team or just decided not to play any longer.

I would 100% agree it is clear that when your offense is that efficient, your defense needs to be that much better (or have a very good turnover margin). Not making up excuses for him. Just saying my opinion is the situations seemed to outweigh X's and O's, and give credit where credit is due. We lost to some good teams.

I thank Josh for his contribution. He filled in nicely and did fine for a first time head coach. Almost any new hire is a gamble, even if they have previous, successful experience. I'm not sorry to see him go, either. I think we greatly upgraded our coaching staff, whether that pans out on the field is another story that will unfold. Looking forward to seeing what we look like in the fall.
You forgot one thing. He did us a great favor by taking the Tennessee job :)

He's okay for shirt stints and runs a program with integrity but the inconsistent run game and his lack of desire to stay with it in games makes our defense a big target in big games.
 
Let’s be honest. Heupel’s offense was a gimmick offense, but it worked most of the time and was overall lethal.

Having said that, these are the main reasons I was not a fan of Heupel as our head coach:

- He consistently took his foot off the pedal with big leads, and thus got our team out of rhythm and completely threw off the momentum of the team.
- He was a really bad game manager and decision-maker in the moment (minus the let’s go bone call) - he always hesitated and second guessed himself in crucial situations.
- He would not adjust well to defenses that game-planned specifically against our offense.
- Subjectively (and nothing to do with his coaching) he was too coy and often maddeningly defensive to any criticism.

End result, he beat the teams he should, and lost every game against a team with a heart beat. Same rap as at Missouri. It is what it is. It’s a pattern now. We’ll see how he does at UT.

At UCF, he was not a good head coach. Time will tell if he gets better at being the CEO of football. Who cares, though, he’s gone and I’m on the Gus Bus and glad he’s here. While our offense won’t be as good, I’m confident every other facet of our team will be better.

Go Knights. Charge On!!!
 
Let’s be honest. Heupel’s offense was a gimmick offense, but it worked most of the time and was overall lethal.

Having said that, these are the main reasons I was not a fan of Heupel as our head coach:

- He consistently took his foot off the pedal with big leads, and thus got our team out of rhythm and completely threw off the momentum of the team.
- He was a really bad game manager and decision-maker in the moment (minus the let’s go bone call) - he always hesitated and second guessed himself in crucial situations.
- He would not adjust well to defenses that game-planned specifically against our offense.
- Subjectively (and nothing to do with his coaching) he was too coy and often maddeningly defensive to any criticism.

End result, he beat the teams he should, and lost every game against a team with a heart beat. Same rap as at Missouri. It is what it is. It’s a pattern now. We’ll see how he does at UT.

At UCF, he was not a good head coach. Time will tell if he gets better at being the CEO of football. Who cares, though, he’s gone and I’m on the Gus Bus and glad he’s here. While our offense won’t be as good, I’m confident every other facet of our team will be better.

Go Knights. Charge On!!!
Heupels offense only works when he can out talent the competition at skill positions. He won’t lose many O’Leary type games to Furman, but he’s not going to beat many teams where he doesn’t have superior talent at the skill positions either.
 
"....opt outs/players kicked from the team."
It is beyond pathetic when fans on this board express an opinion and then get personally attacked with sophomoric name calling because someone disagrees.........
So it's not sophomoric for the original post to use a Middle school girl's name-calling of an ex-coach?

PS. I'm glad he's gone simply because of the reaction of the players. If he stayed, I think this year would have been a disaster.
 
I resemble that remark. I still have my Kent State pitchers jacket and hat and glove. Now it’s like tommy boy. Big man little coat. Lol. Baseball team had to work the aisles of the football games every Saturday morning. Rain. Sleet. Snow. Every damn Saturday. To pay for our spring break trip to FL. The worst 4 fall years of my life. We went 0 for three years when I was there. We were Penthouse level bottom 10 famous. Finally Won our last game my senior year. Yay. 1-43. Where was Edelman when We needed him? He was like 7 years old.

ps. We kicked Gator ass in the college World Series though in 2012 I think it was. My high school and college buddy was and is still KSU pitching coach.

most famous KSU baseball. alumni. I played at Thurman Munson memorial stadium. Great catcher. Not much of a pilot.
Great catcher. Not much of a pilot.


OUCH! Still remember that day, and I'm not a Yankee fan.
 
"....opt outs/players kicked from the team."

So it's not sophomoric for the original post to use a Middle school girl's name-calling of an ex-coach?

PS. I'm glad he's gone simply because of the reaction of the players. If he stayed, I think this year would have been a disaster.
I am not defending or condoning any personal attacks made in the thread by the OP or anyone else. I was called a douchebag for merely expressing my opinion that the stats were valid........that is indeed sophomoric
 
Great catcher. Not much of a pilot.


OUCH! Still remember that day, and I'm not a Yankee fan.
True story. I had Thurman munsons autograph on a home run ball I caught over the fence at Municipal stadium. All be it in pregame warm ups. But he signed it on the sweet spot. Rare rare rare. One of maybe a couple hundred he signed before he piloted out of life so young. I sold it for a couple grand to some dude on the internet to pay for my daughters tuition at FSU for her senior year. Lol. We actually used it for backyard ball in middle and high school. It was scraped up. Found it and sold it 30 years later. In the baggie my mom put it in. He was not a good pilot. But I played college ball in his his named stadium.
 
I am not defending or condoning any personal attacks made in the thread by the OP or anyone else. I was called a douchebag for merely expressing my opinion that the stats were valid........that is indeed sophomoric
No you were not called a douchebag. The Reference was to OP
 
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Pretty lame. Not only did you miss the point of the post, but you got all hot and bothered about the word “turd”. We could never hang out...
Yeah I understood the point of the post and whether it is accurate or not is not the point. The point is that I don’t understand why people feel the need to be immature and act like children calling stupid names. And stop pretending that it is limited to this post. It is clearly a widespread practice among some fans. It is stale and not in the least clever. It is also a really bad look. But if you think this is clever and witty then yeah, we could never hang out.
 
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