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The Stock Market Thread: Where we blame everything we can except Trump. (Unless its going well)

Do you now understand that so-called 'trade wars' have less to do with the stock market than central-bank money printing? As long as CB's are printing money, and pumping them into stocks, our precious portfolios are safe.

If some economic situation should make money printing and huge defect spending a negative, look out below. David Rosenberg did some data analysis and based on historical norms he said the S&P had a fair value of 1550.

In the meantime, the tale of two cities - those with inflatable assets like stocks and real estate, and those without grows wider and wider.
 
Boston.Knight said:
Do you now understand that so-called 'trade wars' have less to do with the stock market than central-bank money printing? As long as CB's are printing money, and pumping them into stocks, our precious portfolios are safe.

If some economic situation should make money printing and huge defect spending a negative, look out below. David Rosenberg did some data analysis and based on historical norms he said the S&P had a fair value of 1550.

In the meantime, the tale of two cities - those with inflatable assets like stocks and real estate, and those without grows wider and wider.
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Completely spot on. To extend that point even further, add debt into the mix. For the first time in the history of our country we've gotten to the point that debt isn't necessarily a burden but is also starting to become desirable, thanks to the lag of money velocity. Not debt for the purpose of consuming but for capital improvement on both the public and private side.
 
To add one more thing: stocks and real estate aren't the only inflatable assets that are worth investing in. At this point, any non-perishable item or commodity is worthy of consideration.


An easy example of this for Floridians would be construction materials. Just imagine the money you could make investing in something as simple as plywood, knowing that the next time a hurricane comes through the demand for it goes way up and just the simplest of market conditions are going to dictate a profit. Now, take the current situation, where there is somewhere between 3 and 4 times the amount of dollars out there than what we have circulating domestically. As soon as that money comes back into circulation then the value of your plywood is multiplied by that factor. Add on top of that the fact that outside forces can suddenly and dramatically increase the demand for your investment and you could see an 8 to 12 fold increase in the relative value to the dollar. On top of that, you could borrow the money to purchase your product at under 5%, and if you have the ability to maintain that debt service in the interim, you could turn it into a ridiculously profitable risk.
 
Crazyhole said:
To add one more thing: stocks and real estate aren't the only inflatable assets that are worth investing in. At this point, any non-perishable item or commodity is worthy of consideration.
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You heard it here. Dump your retirement into green beans or grape jelly for maximum return.
 
fried-chicken said:
You heard it here. Dump your retirement into green beans or grape jelly for maximum return.
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Well grain isn't a terrible investment, which is why you see an increasing number of private producers putting up more and more storage to take advantage of the situation, but the risk of spoiling and exponential growth in future production takes some of the glitter off.
 
Crazyhole said:
Completely spot on. To extend that point even further, add debt into the mix. For the first time in the history of our country we've gotten to the point that debt isn't necessarily a burden but is also starting to become desirable, thanks to the lag of money velocity. Not debt for the purpose of consuming but for capital improvement on both the public and private side.
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And think , not even 20 years ago the idea of running huge $1T plus budget deficits during economic good times was unthinkable. Even Clinton managed to have a budget surplus one year.

The Republicans should be ashamed of themselves for their reckless abandonment of sound monetary and fiscal policy. Today, they are nothing more than war-mongering liberals in an elephant costume, stinking up DC.
 
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Crazyhole said:
Well grain isn't a terrible investment, which is why you see an increasing number of private producers putting up more and more storage to take advantage of the situation, but the risk of spoiling and exponential growth in future production takes some of the glitter off.
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I agree about commodity exposure. Jeff Gundlach is pounding the table on the same. The problem is all the easy money floating around enables "zombie" commodity producers to artificially stay alive. A lot of them should have long been belly up by now. Instead, they keep pumping out supply at a loss, which keeps prices suppressed.

That said, the return to normalization will put pressure on the weak. They should be some of the first to rollover when/if the spiggot stops, and we could see a nice leg up on commodities.
 
Boston.Knight said:
And think , not even 20 years ago the idea of running huge $1T plus budget deficits during economic good times was unthinkable. Even Clinton managed to have a budget surplus one year.

The Republicans should be ashamed of themselves for their reckless abandonment of sound monetary and fiscal policy. Today, they are nothing more than war-mongering liberals in an elephant costume, stinking up DC.
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I'm much harder on the GOP for fiscal irresponsibility than monetary, but yes it's pretty disgusting. Even Keynes would be shaking his head.
 
Boston.Knight said:
I agree about commodity exposure. Jeff Gundlach is pounding the table on the same. The problem is all the easy money floating around enables "zombie" commodity producers to artificially stay alive. A lot of them should have long been belly up by now. Instead, they keep pumping out supply at a loss, which keeps prices suppressed.

That said, the return to normalization will put pressure on the weak. They should be some of the first to rollover when/if the spiggot stops, and we could see a nice leg up on commodities.
Click to expand...


Yeah, the CBOT, in connection with our trade policy has been maniputing prices for years. It'll be interesting to see how things shake out when/if Trump goes full bore on NAFTA and his supposed tariffs. My guess at this point is that the heavily leveraged investors are going to get swamped and then the vultures will reap the benefits of both inflation and the trade policy. Farmers that can hold on are going to make an absolute killing a couple of years afterwards. Who knows what happens with oil, way too many variables to even begin to trace that one out.
 
I wonder what Friedman would be saying today. As pragmatic as he was, something tells me he would be screaming.
 
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And think , not even 20 years ago the idea of running huge $1T plus budget deficits during economic good times was unthinkable. Even Clinton managed to have a budget surplus one year.

Curious isn't it. And if it was just the politicians facilitating this I would say that it was ineptitude driving it, but the FED is generally a group of pretty smart people so you have to wonder what exactly the end game is. I used to think that they were just playing a short game trying to stave off deflation with plans of contracting the money supply when M1 starts to expand, but the longer this goes on I am starting to think that they're going to let it balance itself out on its own at the peril of foreign governments and people. They don't seem to take issue with the welfare state at any level.

It's funny, the 20th century gave us about a half dozen brilliant economic minds who went back and forth about their beliefs and all of them had merit. When's the last time we had a Friedman, Hayek, or Keynes? They would all be decrying our actions over the last quarter century and Mises would have gone completely postal, but it just seems like things are so much different now with globalization that none of their positions as a whole are completely applicable anymore.
 
UCF11and1 said:
Where is the bump for Friday afternoon? I'll help you: it lost 0.5%
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Come on man, you know FNB only bumps this in an absolutely pathetically obvious partisan attempt to distract from bad news to his "political team"
 
NinjaKnight said:
Thanks for the concern!

I'll end up with a 12 pack if Fox News Bob keeps this up, embarrassingly pathetic attempt at deflection. But hilarious.
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Come now, we all buy a 12 pack on occasion and none of us are pathetic because of.it.

But in all seriousness, bragging about a 1 or 2% shift in the market is a joke.
 
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Crazyhole said:
Come now, we all buy a 12 pack on occasion and none of us are pathetic because of.it.

But in all seriousness, bragging about a 1 or 2% shift in the market is a joke.
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I agree.

NinjaKnight said:
Christ you are so partisan it is pathetic. No one said anything about the S&P.

https://www.thestreet.com/video/14545188/dow-plunges-almost-500-points-at-market-open.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/ma...most-500-points-after-china-hits-back-n862666

Dow opens down almost 500 points after China hits back with new round of tariffs
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DpQ-H7xU4AIiz5l.jpg





Don't let it ever be said that I have never agreed with Trump.
 
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BRAVO PRESIDENT TRUMP


WELL DONE SIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIR
 
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fried-chicken said:
I know the state of our economy is what's driving the market down.

The 10 year yield has been rising rapidly. The fed has raised rates 6 quarters in a row and we have a president who thinks a trade war is the move to make to bring jobs to a country that doesn't need them.

It's only computers reacting to market conditions of an overheated stock market with P/E ratios at a rate we haven't seen since the last time the market dropped 40%.
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Currency is devalued right now. Inflation? The dollar will be like the pesos soon under Frump
 
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