I did this exercise to test my assumptions in answering this question: How "good" is Scott Frost at doing the things I believe are most important to building a program that can compete for conference championships regularly (my standard for UCF)?
YMMV on the value of what I deem "most important" versus what I don't list here, most notably "vibes" and program familiarity. I don't particularly value the history of 2017 when it comes to winning in 2025 and beyond, and while I believe the CFB coaching landscape has changed drastically since 2016-2017, I still think that high school recruiting is the most trustworthy pathway to winning games regularly.
To be fair, I'll share the primary assumption I had before I started pulling the numbers: Frost is a below-average hire for us. He felt like a C- candidate, but I couldn't put a finger on why. When I tried to, I kept coming back to this: His programs have consistently struggled against competition with equal or slightly better talent, and the sheer volume of close game losses at Nebraska had me believing that they resulted from a lack of discipline and consistency in the fundamentals of football brought on by poor coaching.
So, with that, here are the numbers, and I'll share at the end how much my mind was changed, if at all.
Team Performance – Overall (Listed: National Ranks in FPI and SP+)
- 2016 – UCF: 73rd, 76th
- 2017 – UCF: 11th, 22nd
- 2018 – Nebraska: 62nd, 49th
- 2019 – Nebraska: 60th, 52nd
- 2020 – Nebraska: 38th, 32nd
- 2021 – Nebraska: 38th, 37th
Team Performance – Offense (Listed: National Ranks in FPI and SP+)
- 2016 – UCF: 118th, 120th
- 2017 – UCF: 9th, 6th
- 2018 – Nebraska: 41st, 42nd
- 2019 – Nebraska: 67th, 42nd
- 2020 – Nebraska: 41st, 35th
- 2021 – Nebraska: 31st, 33rd
Team Performance – Defense (Listed: National Ranks in FPI and SP+)
- 2016 – UCF: 20th, 35th
- 2017 – UCF: 32nd, 63rd
- 2018 – Nebraska: 82nd, 55th
- 2019 – Nebraska: 45th, 61st
- 2020 – Nebraska: 34th, 38th
- 2021 – Nebraska: 26th, 28th
Team Performance – Special Teams (Listed: National Ranks in FPI and SP+)
- 2016 – UCF: 43rd, 13th
- 2017 – UCF: 10th, 51st
- 2018 – Nebraska: 67th, 71st
- 2019 – Nebraska: 120th, 123rd
- 2020 – Nebraska: 115th, 93rd
- 2021 – Nebraska: 128th, 127th
Player Development – Players Drafted From That Season’s Roster
- 2016 – UCF: 1 (CB S. Griffin)
- 2017 – UCF: 4 (CB M. Hughes, WR T. Smith, TE J. Akins, LB S. Griffin)
- Post-Frost UCF Draftees: 6 (DT T. Hill, WR G. Davis, S R. Grant, CB A. Robinson, WR J. Harris, DT K. Davis)
- 2018 – Nebraska: 0
- 2019 – Nebraska: 2 (DT K. Davis, DT C.Davis)
- 2020 – Nebraska: 2 (OT B. Jaimes, OG M. Farniok)
- 2021 – Nebraska: 3 (OC C. Jurgens, CB C. Taylor-Britt, WR S. Toure)
- Post-Frost NU Draftees: 2 (DE O. Mathis, WR T. Palmer)
- Note: Frost only had two players drafted before Day 3 (Jurgens and Taylor-Britt), and only two skill players that were Day 3 guys (Toure and Palmer), and Palmer only played 3 games under Frost in 2022. WR Wan’Dale Robinson was recruited by Frost but transferred to Kentucky for his breakout and eventual second-round pick season.
Player Development – Eventual NFL Draft Players Recruited (Source: Rivals)
- 2016 – UCF: 2 (Hill and Grant)
- 2017 – UCF: 2 (G. Davis and K. Davis)
- 2018 – Nebraska: 2 (Jurgens and Taylor-Britt)
- 2019 – Nebraska: 2 (HS WR Wan’Dale Robinson, HS QB Luke McCaffrey)
- 2020 – Nebraska: 1 (JUCO DT Jordon Riley)
- 2021 – Nebraska: N/A (these players are in their third year)
Roster Building – National Recruiting Class Rankings (Listed: 247 then Rivals)
- 2016 – UCF: 66th, 57th
- 2017 – UCF: 50th, 53rd
- 2018 – Nebraska: 21st, 23rd
- 2019 – Nebraska: 18th, 15th
- 2020 – Nebraska: 20th ,17th
- 2021 – Nebraska: 24th, 18th (beginning of transfer portal as currently modeled)
Roster Building – Blue Chips Recruited (Listed: 247 then Rivals)
- 2016 – UCF: 0, 2 (Dowdell, Snelson)
- 2017 – UCF: 1, 1 (C. Richardson)
- 2018 – Nebraska: 6, 9
- 2019 – Nebraska: 7, 11
- 2020 – Nebraska: 10, 11
- 2021 – Nebraska: 3, 3
I came away from this feeling slightly better about Frost's ability to build UCF in to a top 3-4 program in the Big 12. Why? Surprisingly, it's the defensive performance at Nebraska and the hope, however misguided, that he learned something about game management and special teams from his time on Sean McVay's staff (despite their rather poor ST numbers this season). I was also impressed by the 2020 recruiting class, which picked up a ton of blue chips even after the sheen of the 2017 UCF season had worn off Frost and his staff. The player development is concerning, though, even more so than the on-field performance. There are very few guys in the league right now recruited and developed by a Frost program.
Here's how I would grade Frost in these three areas as he enters round two at UCF:
Game Management/On-Field Performance: C+
Roster Building: A-
Player Development: C
Overall (in other words, how good of a P4 coach is Scott Frost, right now?): B-
I'm not saying anything revelatory by pointing out that none of us know what Terry's situation actually was - how much money did he have to offer a coach (salary and pool), what candidates were willing to listen to him, etc. Props to Brandon for delivering so much of that information to us, because it gives us this platform to actually have a discussion now and in to the future about who the right guy is/was. I think I would rather have Odom if it was a binary choice, but I'm also willing to admit that the ceiling does seem higher with Frost if he can fix the issues that plagued him at Nebraska.