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Can Frost Actually Build, Develop, and Coach? His Career By The Numbers

I did this exercise to test my assumptions in answering this question: How "good" is Scott Frost at doing the things I believe are most important to building a program that can compete for conference championships regularly (my standard for UCF)?

YMMV on the value of what I deem "most important" versus what I don't list here, most notably "vibes" and program familiarity. I don't particularly value the history of 2017 when it comes to winning in 2025 and beyond, and while I believe the CFB coaching landscape has changed drastically since 2016-2017, I still think that high school recruiting is the most trustworthy pathway to winning games regularly.

To be fair, I'll share the primary assumption I had before I started pulling the numbers: Frost is a below-average hire for us. He felt like a C- candidate, but I couldn't put a finger on why. When I tried to, I kept coming back to this: His programs have consistently struggled against competition with equal or slightly better talent, and the sheer volume of close game losses at Nebraska had me believing that they resulted from a lack of discipline and consistency in the fundamentals of football brought on by poor coaching.

So, with that, here are the numbers, and I'll share at the end how much my mind was changed, if at all.

Team Performance – Overall (Listed: National Ranks in FPI and SP+)
  • 2016 – UCF: 73rd, 76th
  • 2017 – UCF: 11th, 22nd
  • 2018 – Nebraska: 62nd, 49th
  • 2019 – Nebraska: 60th, 52nd
  • 2020 – Nebraska: 38th, 32nd
  • 2021 – Nebraska: 38th, 37th
Team Performance – Offense (Listed: National Ranks in FPI and SP+)
  • 2016 – UCF: 118th, 120th
  • 2017 – UCF: 9th, 6th
  • 2018 – Nebraska: 41st, 42nd
  • 2019 – Nebraska: 67th, 42nd
  • 2020 – Nebraska: 41st, 35th
  • 2021 – Nebraska: 31st, 33rd
Team Performance – Defense (Listed: National Ranks in FPI and SP+)
  • 2016 – UCF: 20th, 35th
  • 2017 – UCF: 32nd, 63rd
  • 2018 – Nebraska: 82nd, 55th
  • 2019 – Nebraska: 45th, 61st
  • 2020 – Nebraska: 34th, 38th
  • 2021 – Nebraska: 26th, 28th
Team Performance – Special Teams (Listed: National Ranks in FPI and SP+)
  • 2016 – UCF: 43rd, 13th
  • 2017 – UCF: 10th, 51st
  • 2018 – Nebraska: 67th, 71st
  • 2019 – Nebraska: 120th, 123rd
  • 2020 – Nebraska: 115th, 93rd
  • 2021 – Nebraska: 128th, 127th
Player Development – Players Drafted From That Season’s Roster
  • 2016 – UCF: 1 (CB S. Griffin)
  • 2017 – UCF: 4 (CB M. Hughes, WR T. Smith, TE J. Akins, LB S. Griffin)
  • Post-Frost UCF Draftees: 6 (DT T. Hill, WR G. Davis, S R. Grant, CB A. Robinson, WR J. Harris, DT K. Davis)
  • 2018 – Nebraska: 0
  • 2019 – Nebraska: 2 (DT K. Davis, DT C.Davis)
  • 2020 – Nebraska: 2 (OT B. Jaimes, OG M. Farniok)
  • 2021 – Nebraska: 3 (OC C. Jurgens, CB C. Taylor-Britt, WR S. Toure)
  • Post-Frost NU Draftees: 2 (DE O. Mathis, WR T. Palmer)
  • Note: Frost only had two players drafted before Day 3 (Jurgens and Taylor-Britt), and only two skill players that were Day 3 guys (Toure and Palmer), and Palmer only played 3 games under Frost in 2022. WR Wan’Dale Robinson was recruited by Frost but transferred to Kentucky for his breakout and eventual second-round pick season.
Player Development – Eventual NFL Draft Players Recruited (Source: Rivals)
  • 2016 – UCF: 2 (Hill and Grant)
  • 2017 – UCF: 2 (G. Davis and K. Davis)
  • 2018 – Nebraska: 2 (Jurgens and Taylor-Britt)
  • 2019 – Nebraska: 2 (HS WR Wan’Dale Robinson, HS QB Luke McCaffrey)
  • 2020 – Nebraska: 1 (JUCO DT Jordon Riley)
  • 2021 – Nebraska: N/A (these players are in their third year)
Roster Building – National Recruiting Class Rankings (Listed: 247 then Rivals)
  • 2016 – UCF: 66th, 57th
  • 2017 – UCF: 50th, 53rd
  • 2018 – Nebraska: 21st, 23rd
  • 2019 – Nebraska: 18th, 15th
  • 2020 – Nebraska: 20th ,17th
  • 2021 – Nebraska: 24th, 18th (beginning of transfer portal as currently modeled)
Roster Building – Blue Chips Recruited (Listed: 247 then Rivals)
  • 2016 – UCF: 0, 2 (Dowdell, Snelson)
  • 2017 – UCF: 1, 1 (C. Richardson)
  • 2018 – Nebraska: 6, 9
  • 2019 – Nebraska: 7, 11
  • 2020 – Nebraska: 10, 11
  • 2021 – Nebraska: 3, 3

I came away from this feeling slightly better about Frost's ability to build UCF in to a top 3-4 program in the Big 12. Why? Surprisingly, it's the defensive performance at Nebraska and the hope, however misguided, that he learned something about game management and special teams from his time on Sean McVay's staff (despite their rather poor ST numbers this season). I was also impressed by the 2020 recruiting class, which picked up a ton of blue chips even after the sheen of the 2017 UCF season had worn off Frost and his staff. The player development is concerning, though, even more so than the on-field performance. There are very few guys in the league right now recruited and developed by a Frost program.

Here's how I would grade Frost in these three areas as he enters round two at UCF:

Game Management/On-Field Performance: C+
Roster Building: A-
Player Development: C
Overall (in other words, how good of a P4 coach is Scott Frost, right now?): B-

I'm not saying anything revelatory by pointing out that none of us know what Terry's situation actually was - how much money did he have to offer a coach (salary and pool), what candidates were willing to listen to him, etc. Props to Brandon for delivering so much of that information to us, because it gives us this platform to actually have a discussion now and in to the future about who the right guy is/was. I think I would rather have Odom if it was a binary choice, but I'm also willing to admit that the ceiling does seem higher with Frost if he can fix the issues that plagued him at Nebraska.

Truly, thank you

Summary for those who do not want to read:
I hate all of you with a passion as strong as 1000 suns. that is all

I know some of you love to give me S*** which is perfectly fine (truly appreciate any/all interactions and truly trying to grow/improve with every post), and others always show me love. With the HC stuff finally being over (the other coaches should not be as crazy but who knows) and this season finally coming to a close, I wanted to say thank you to each and every member in here. It is absolutely crazy to me to somehow be viewed as anything more than a random poster in here, but I am glad I have been able to grow my connections so I can share with all of y'all. Thank you to Brandon for allowing me to post in here and "make up things" on a daily basis lol. It is still shocking to me to log in each day and see 50+ interactions on my posts. I noticed it specifically during this coaching search, I would come back after like an hour away and see 100+ interactions. It is a bit overwhelming but to have that many people give even 1 second of their time to interact with my posts.....means a lot. I am not usually one to say thank you or be sentimental, but after all this I did want to say thank you. IDC if you are one who laughs at every post I make, simply likes my posts, comments, or hell even read it and not react at all. It is just a great feeling to be taken in by this UCF family as a UCF grad and I appreciate all of you. I have had multiple people reach out with opportunities due to this forum and though I have yet to take any (maybe one day i will join a podcast/website/channel) of them up.....who knows what the future holds. As long as their is enough of you who want me to continue to provide what I am hearing and Brandon is good making money off me each month as I pay the subscription lol....I will continue to share what I am allowed and what I am being told.

Now that is enough of that nice posting....You do not need to react or respond to this post, that was not the intention of it. I just look forward to meeting more of you in the future. The few I have gotten to meet have all been amazing and as time continues, I look forward to meeting even more of ya. Now back to me making up S***

- The new DC is 10000000% going to be Jon Sumrall and Barry Odom together. They have found the fusion earings from Dragon Ball Z and plan to wear them on 1 ear each to form into Barry Sumrall.

Let's take a step back and look at our new HC's body of work

This will be an intriguing couple of years. Was Frost a one year wonder or will he re-establish a winning tradition at UCF? And just as important, does he have what it takes to be a consistent winner year in and year out? If so, we want him...if not his stay should be short. I wish we weren't the guinea pig for him to correct his mistakes and mature as a HC, but it is what it is. Let's give him a little slack, not a lot, and see what he can do. I still think Terry, just like he did with Gus, took the easy way out on this hire and needs to be gone when his contract expires. Login to view embedded media

Saturday 12/7 Football Thread - with Coach Watch viewing guide

Here’s everyone’s viewing schedule by coach target:
-Campbell (Iowa State HC) - Noon
- Schuman (UGA DC) - 4pm
- Kotelnicki (PSU OC) - 8pm
- Stein (Oregon OC) - 8pm
- G. Riley (Clemson OC) - 8pm

Now do the dungeon a service and go scout your future coach!!


From @Great2BAKnight2

"People will come Ray...." "Is this Heaven?"

While this had been noted probably a dozen or more times during the search IF Frost landed the job, seeing Brandon's (hopefully last, he needs some SLEEP) early morning post, when he put this in BOLD: McKenzie Milton is a lock for staff, it finally hit home.

AYIXT37IRJFNRPNFYJ27LYDNLU.jpg


Ray, people will come, Ray.

They'll come to UCF for reasons they can't even fathom. They'll turn up in your parking lot, not knowing for sure why they're doing it. They'll arrive at your door as innocent as children, longing for the past.

"Of course, we won't mind if you look around," you'll say. "It's only twenty dollars per person." They'll pass over the money without even thinking about it. For it is money they have and peace they lack.

And they'll walk out to the bleachers, and sit in shirt-sleeves on a perfect afternoon. They'll find they have reserved seats somewhere along one of the sideline, where they sat when they were children and cheered their heroes. And they'll watch the game, and it'll be as if they'd dipped themselves in magic waters. The memories will be so thick, they'll have to brush them away from their faces.

People will come, Ray.

The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been college football.

America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers. It's been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt, and erased again. But college football has marked the time.

This field, this game -- it's a part of our past, Ray. It reminds us of all that once was good, and it could be again.

Ohhhhhhhh, people will come, Ray. People will most definitely come.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I will get goose bumps when I see the long line of cars with their headlights on....all coming home this fall.

drone-mini-3-stadium-shot-vs-louisville-0023-900xx4032-2268-0-378.jpg

Coaches

Jamey Chadwell to UNC
Mack Brown UNC retired
Ryan Silverfield Memphis - UCF Candidate
Barry Odom UNLV -UCF Candidate
Will Stein- Oregon -UCF Candidate
Scott Frost Nebraska and UCF - UCF Candidate
Ed Orgeron LSU -UCF Candidate
Out of this group, Barry Odom and Scott Frost may be the best fit for UCF. Ed Orgeron could be the mystery hire we have forgotten about.

Thank you for supporting us at the Dillsboro Chocolate Factory. Here is a Dungeon Discount Code for 15% off to January

Hey Yall:
All this corch search stuff is creating anxiety and anxiety often means people eat more!

I want to say thank you for helping us in October! So, I went into the Shopify portal and created a 15% discount for all orders $30 or more! It's my way of saying thanks.
The code is chargeon


It expires midnight on New Years Eve.

Thanks again and back to the corch search . 😆

Scott Frost is "dying" to coach again, looks back fondly on his UCF days

Dennis Dodd:

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- Scott Frost is available. Actually, Scott Frost is more than available.

"For the first time in my life, I don't know what's next," the former Nebraska coach told CBS Sports. "I'm dying to get back in."

You don't see many national coach of the year winners as young as Frost, 49, without a job, but these are different times and unique circumstances.

Earning multiple coaching honors after leading UCF to an undefeated season and New Year's Six bowl win over Auburn in 2017, Frost went back home to Nebraska for a chance to lead his alma mater.


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