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Discussion in 'UCF Fan Forum' started by BlakNGoldAllDay, May 17, 2019 at 12:39 PM.
AAC strength of schedule rankings: UCF gets toughest draw yet, but will it be enough for CFP consideration?
By Tom Fornelli
2 hrs ago • 8 min read
Scheduling matters more than ever before in the College Football Playoff era. As we've seen in the history of the CFP, it's one of the most significant factors in deciding who gets a shot to play for a national title and who does not. It's not just whether you win your conference, but who you play along the way. It's also proven that it's not just about who you have beaten, but who you lost to during the season.
We've already seen numerous examples of teams missing out on the playoff not just because of who they lost to, but which teams they never gave themselves a chance to beat.
So it only makes sense that we try to get an idea of which teams will play the more demanding schedules before the season even begins, and that's precisely what we've done. Now, it isn't a perfect process, but it's one I think gives us a good idea of what to expect. I'll explain.
Methodology: Essentially, what I do is look at which teams each program is playing, and how strong those teams have performed in my ranking system in past years. The history of a program is a better indicator of its future success than just about anything, though I did make a change this season.
In previous years I ranked programs based on how they fared the last five seasons. This year I've changed it to the last three seasons. Yes, the sample size is smaller, but what I noticed is that it's typically the same teams performing well over the last three as it was the previous five, but by changing it to three, it shows a bit more accuracy for the upcoming season. For example, playing UCF last season wasn't worth as much as it probably should have been when considering UCF's previous five seasons. Now, considering only the last three, UCF is much stronger. On the flip side, there's a program like Oregon, which is the No. 27 team overall over the previous five seasons but is only No. 47 in the last three. Considering the Ducks haven't finished any of the previous three seasons ranked in the AP Top 25 poll, that No. 47 ranking better reflects their overall strength at present than the previous five seasons ranking.
Finally, I consider other factors like where the game is played, as well as when it's played. For example, if you're playing Boston College on the road and it's your fifth game in five weeks, that's more difficult than if you were playing Boston College on the road following a bye. The same can be said if your opponent is coming off a bye while you've played a month straight. There's also the issue of playing on a short week.
I then crunch all the numbers, and in the end, I get something that gives us all a good idea of which teams are most likely to face the most difficult schedules in 2019.
And, without further ado, here are your 2019 American Athletic Conference strength of schedule rankings.
So everyone else has a harder schedule than us because they play UCF? Got it.
Must be it. I tried copying and pasting but shows only pictures for some reason on my end.
Yep. And for consistency sake, I'm sure he'll put Clemson's SOS at 9th or higher in the ACC.
Problem is everyone gets a boost because they play us lol. The way I think about G5 conferences is you need that one team to be a hunter and bring in some quality wins and get ranked... so then the rest of your conference can feed off that team to move up. Its a good problem to have if you're UCF tbh.
The teams above us have objectively tougher non conference schedules so no surprise. The AAC has some tough games this year out of conference.
No. Not all.
Michigan State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Army, TCU, Auburn, Washington State, Wisconsin, etc. all have better panache than Pitt or Stanford.
The guy also didn’t base his ranking on opinion. Objectively it isn’t hard to see that there are many other AAC teams with tougher schedules. Sorry you disagree.
Tulane-FIU, Auburn , Missouri State and Army.
SMU- Ark St, North Texas, Texas State and TCU
Navy- Holy Cross, AirForce, Notre Dame and Army.
UCF- Pitt, Stanford, FAU and FAMU.
Army’s Current HC is 35-28. That’s better than Stanford? Shaw is 82-26. Leach is 49-40. Not better than Shaw.
Cool. Thanks for illustrating.
So Pitt or Stanford are better than Army (who won 11 of 12 last year with the only loss coming in overtime at Oklahoma) or Notre Dame (who were 12-1 with only loss to the national champions in the CFP)? Nah it’s not even close. The only schedule above that is debatable as being weaker than UCF is SMU, but they got the nod because they play TCU, Houston, Memphis, USF, and Navy on the road and they weigh home/vs away.
I’m only talking OOC. In conference doesn’t matter. That will be sorted out on field.
Army lost to Duke 34-14.