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Can USF afford the Bulls’ $340 million on-campus football stadium?

90Knight

90Knight

Bronze Knight
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Can USF afford the Bulls’ $340 million on-campus football stadium?​

https://www.tampabay.com/sports/bulls/2023/06/09/usf-football-on-campus-stadium-ocs-bulls-conference-realignment/?utm_medium=social&utm_content=@TBTimes_Sports&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=SocialFlow

“I don’t know if I’d call it economic malpractice,” said College of the Holy Cross economics professor Victor Matheson, who literally co-wrote the book on sports economics, “but it’s pretty close to it.” 😂

In the 2021-22 fiscal year, the Bulls brought in $18.7 million in football-related revenue, according to figures submitted to the U.S. Department of Education. That means the stadium must essentially double the team’s revenue if it will pay for itself.

You’re throwing $350 million on something that you know is going to lose money for you under almost any scenario,” Matheson said, “with a small percentage chance that you end up losing less.”

Once again UCF keeps proving who does things “The right way” .
 
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their fans get so angry when any non homer states the obvious that it doesn’t make economic sense at that price
 
You didn’t have to be an economic expert to know they can’t afford it, but I do love the experts calling it “pretty close…to economic malpractice” lol 😂. Of course they are too proud (no idea why) to build something more realistic like Tulane or FAU or even like our stadium.
 
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The revenue projections are way out there. They have really high season ticket prices. Much higher than ours and we just barely sell out our stadium going into the b12 and with twice the number of student tickets
 
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Changed browsers and was able to read :p

Poor bools....would be funny if the proposal got voted down.
 
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I'll bet this passes without a single dissent. No doubt a recent upgrading in 1 aspect has all of them dreaming of the Big 10 invite.

(Yes I know no one in the universe thinks usf is going anywhere, but they can dream.)
 
"The feasibility study assumes an average attendance of 31,130. The Bulls have hit that figure in only six games over the last four years; five came against big-name opponents."

Now that's hilarious.
 
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One more---on usf's chances of getting into a 'major' conference- "Matheson rejected it as a “terrible” Hail Mary."
 
80'sKnight said:
"The feasibility study assumes an average attendance of 31,130. The Bulls have hit that figure in only six games over the last four years; five came against big-name opponents."

Now that's hilarious.
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I’m too lazy to google anything Bulls - the other game above 31k was probably against us? Or are they now counting UCF as big-name!
 
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I posted this in the dungeon

I was just looking at the revenue from the UCF Stadium Corp. the 12k student ticket allotment are not revenue because they are free to students. UCF athletics gets student fees from all students but that is not football revenue and it has nothing to do with the stadium revenues. UCF season tickets in a 45k stadium are 27k . The revenues for the UCF stadium including distributions from UCF athletics, premium seating, ticket sales, field sponsorships etc. was right around $8M. Now maybe there is some revenue I am missing like parking (which I believe historically came with your season tickets)

usf says they will have 6k in student tickets none of which will generate revenue. That gives them a maximum of 29k in paying tickets. They anticipate 10k seats subject to donation while UCF has 16,670 subject to donation. They have the same number of premium suites (24), club seats 1200 as to our 3500. 800 on field seats (similar to ours) 40 loge box seats (think we have around 25)

I am not a finance guy from what I can glean from Stadium financials 2022 here are the comparisons: Maybe with more background in this could help me, but this should give you an idea on how skewed their projections are

UCF premium Seating 2022: $2,965,400: plus UCF gets "rent" from the association which I assume is part of non-premium ticket donations $2,121,000 so $5,086,400
usf projection $8,396,000

UCF Ticket sales 2022: $4,229,550:
usf projection $7,620,000

UCF 2022 Stadium rights $1.9M
usf projection $2.5M

UCF 2022 ad sponsors $180k
usf projection $1M

UCF $2022 food commissions $677,811.00
usf projection $452,700

UCF 2022 operating expenses $4,363,393
usf projected expenses $4,053,770

UCF net 2022 revenue approx: $8M
USF projects $15M a year in net revenue

UCF debt service 2022 $3,626,778 So UCF makes money on their stadium

So they based their projections on $150M in debt over 30 years at 4.0% with a debt service cost of $8.7 a year. with them having a debt coverage ratio of 1.54 and making
But now we know they will finance $200M at 5.5% over 20 years with a $17M debt service and even with their "projections" at a deficit of $3,150,300 a year.

Now they are projecting $20M a year in revenue? Where is the $5M coming from?

If the cows can pull off these projections then UCF tickets are a serious bargain.
 
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SCKnight said:
I posted this in the dungeon

I was just looking at the revenue from the UCF Stadium Corp. the 12k student ticket allotment are not revenue because they are free to students. UCF athletics gets student fees from all students but that is not football revenue and it has nothing to do with the stadium revenues. UCF season tickets in a 45k stadium are 27k . The revenues for the UCF stadium including distributions from UCF athletics, premium seating, ticket sales, field sponsorships etc. was right around $8M. Now maybe there is some revenue I am missing like parking (which I believe historically came with your season tickets)

usf says they will have 6k in student tickets none of which will generate revenue. That gives them a maximum of 29k in paying tickets. They anticipate 10k seats subject to donation while UCF has 16,670 subject to donation. They have the same number of premium suites (24), club seats 1200 as to our 3500. 800 on field seats (similar to ours) 40 loge box seats (think we have around 25)

I am not a finance guy from what I can glean from Stadium financials 2022 here are the comparisons: Maybe with more background in this could help me, but this should give you an idea on how skewed their projections are

UCF premium Seating 2022: $2,965,400: plus UCF gets "rent" from the association which I assume is part of non-premium ticket donations $2,121,000 so $5,086,400
usf projection $8,396,000

UCF Ticket sales 2022: $4,229,550:
usf projection $7,620,000

UCF 2022 Stadium rights $1.9M
usf projection $2.5M

UCF 2022 ad sponsors $180k
usf projection $1M

UCF $2022 food commissions $677,811.00
usf projection $452,700

UCF 2022 operating expenses $4,363,393
usf projected expenses $4,053,770

UCF net 2022 revenue approx: $8M
USF projects $15M a year in net revenue

UCF debt service 2022 $3,626,778 So UCF makes money on their stadium

So they based their projections on $150M in debt over 30 years at 4.0% with a debt service cost of $8.7 a year. with them having a debt coverage ratio of 1.54 and making
But now we know they will finance $200M at 5.5% over 20 years with a $17M debt service and even with their "projections" at a deficit of $3,150,300 a year.

Now they are projecting $20M a year in revenue? Where is the $5M coming from?

If the cows can pull off these projections then UCF tickets are a serious bargain.
Click to expand...
Nice analysis.

Somebody’s student fees are about to skyrocket to cover the deficit. How does the usf board approve this without a sound and realistic financial plan? Students better buckle up for the ride because higher student fees is the only way they can pay for this when their delusional projections don’t pan out.

That’s a lot of debt, even for a school who’s done things “the right way“ and about to pull in Big XII 45-50 million dollar checks with BCS payouts.
 
SCKnight said:
I posted this in the dungeon

I was just looking at the revenue from the UCF Stadium Corp. the 12k student ticket allotment are not revenue because they are free to students. UCF athletics gets student fees from all students but that is not football revenue and it has nothing to do with the stadium revenues. UCF season tickets in a 45k stadium are 27k . The revenues for the UCF stadium including distributions from UCF athletics, premium seating, ticket sales, field sponsorships etc. was right around $8M. Now maybe there is some revenue I am missing like parking (which I believe historically came with your season tickets)

usf says they will have 6k in student tickets none of which will generate revenue. That gives them a maximum of 29k in paying tickets. They anticipate 10k seats subject to donation while UCF has 16,670 subject to donation. They have the same number of premium suites (24), club seats 1200 as to our 3500. 800 on field seats (similar to ours) 40 loge box seats (think we have around 25)

I am not a finance guy from what I can glean from Stadium financials 2022 here are the comparisons: Maybe with more background in this could help me, but this should give you an idea on how skewed their projections are

UCF premium Seating 2022: $2,965,400: plus UCF gets "rent" from the association which I assume is part of non-premium ticket donations $2,121,000 so $5,086,400
usf projection $8,396,000

UCF Ticket sales 2022: $4,229,550:
usf projection $7,620,000

UCF 2022 Stadium rights $1.9M
usf projection $2.5M

UCF 2022 ad sponsors $180k
usf projection $1M

UCF $2022 food commissions $677,811.00
usf projection $452,700

UCF 2022 operating expenses $4,363,393
usf projected expenses $4,053,770

UCF net 2022 revenue approx: $8M
USF projects $15M a year in net revenue

UCF debt service 2022 $3,626,778 So UCF makes money on their stadium

So they based their projections on $150M in debt over 30 years at 4.0% with a debt service cost of $8.7 a year. with them having a debt coverage ratio of 1.54 and making
But now we know they will finance $200M at 5.5% over 20 years with a $17M debt service and even with their "projections" at a deficit of $3,150,300 a year.

Now they are projecting $20M a year in revenue? Where is the $5M coming from?

If the cows can pull off these projections then UCF tickets are a serious bargain.
Click to expand...
it's a win-win for us. if it works out we (and others) will learn something that could help us when building or upgrading facilities. and if it doesn't work out we get to laugh.
 
SCKnight said:
I posted this in the dungeon

I was just looking at the revenue from the UCF Stadium Corp. the 12k student ticket allotment are not revenue because they are free to students. UCF athletics gets student fees from all students but that is not football revenue and it has nothing to do with the stadium revenues. UCF season tickets in a 45k stadium are 27k . The revenues for the UCF stadium including distributions from UCF athletics, premium seating, ticket sales, field sponsorships etc. was right around $8M. Now maybe there is some revenue I am missing like parking (which I believe historically came with your season tickets)

usf says they will have 6k in student tickets none of which will generate revenue. That gives them a maximum of 29k in paying tickets. They anticipate 10k seats subject to donation while UCF has 16,670 subject to donation. They have the same number of premium suites (24), club seats 1200 as to our 3500. 800 on field seats (similar to ours) 40 loge box seats (think we have around 25)

I am not a finance guy from what I can glean from Stadium financials 2022 here are the comparisons: Maybe with more background in this could help me, but this should give you an idea on how skewed their projections are

UCF premium Seating 2022: $2,965,400: plus UCF gets "rent" from the association which I assume is part of non-premium ticket donations $2,121,000 so $5,086,400
usf projection $8,396,000

UCF Ticket sales 2022: $4,229,550:
usf projection $7,620,000

UCF 2022 Stadium rights $1.9M
usf projection $2.5M

UCF 2022 ad sponsors $180k
usf projection $1M

UCF $2022 food commissions $677,811.00
usf projection $452,700

UCF 2022 operating expenses $4,363,393
usf projected expenses $4,053,770

UCF net 2022 revenue approx: $8M
USF projects $15M a year in net revenue

UCF debt service 2022 $3,626,778 So UCF makes money on their stadium

So they based their projections on $150M in debt over 30 years at 4.0% with a debt service cost of $8.7 a year. with them having a debt coverage ratio of 1.54 and making
But now we know they will finance $200M at 5.5% over 20 years with a $17M debt service and even with their "projections" at a deficit of $3,150,300 a year.

Now they are projecting $20M a year in revenue? Where is the $5M coming from?

If the cows can pull off these projections then UCF tickets are a serious bargain.
Click to expand...
This is why I want a lurking USF fan to explain how this is going to work

So either record high student fees, hoping for Lightning owner to give them 50 mil, or a financial disaster for the University?
 
Poolside Knight said:
This is why I want a lurking USF fan to explain how this is going to work

So either record high student fees, hoping for Lightning owner to give them 50 mil, or a financial disaster for the University?
Click to expand...
I understand why they want an OCS. I also understand that there is a correlation between certain amenities and the ability to use the facility for non-football related functions. But I have seen no predictions of such secondary income sources and the current projections which would make their ticket prices and donation numbers some of the highest and a sponsorship deal that was one of the most lucrative in the nation still show a $3M+ deficit a year.
 
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Bottom line…they have to build it and they will no matter how fiscally irresponsible. It’s not like it will get repoed…so they will use creative accounting and tax students. Sounds like the American way to me.
 
SCKnight said:
I understand why they want an OCS. I also understand that there is a correlation between certain amenities and the ability to use the facility for non-football related functions. But I have seen no predictions of such secondary income sources and the current projections which would make their ticket prices and donation numbers some of the highest and a sponsorship deal that was one of the most lucrative in the nation still show a $3M+ deficit a year.
Click to expand...
I think an MLS team eventually saves them.
 
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In a sense, the USF-stadium thing is a "We're all agreeing to lie to each other, and we all know we're lying to each other" situation.
USF needs the stadium, everyone knows they need the stadium, and everyone knows that the math doesn't really come close to working, but everyone has to pretend they believe it does, so that they can get the stadium, and everyone can save face when the budget ends up as a giant mess by saying that they were lied to about the costs.
 
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What usf continues to fail to realize is that they’re a perpetual losing program and that their lack of achievement on the field is what kept them out of the Big XII. An on campus stadium will sit empty when they continue their losing ways.

We have a packed bounce house which helps us recruit, gives us a home field advantage, excites students and fans, generates lots of $$$$$$$ for us in ticket sales/naming rights/donations, and all of this is due to our years of winning conference championships, BCS bowls, upsetting P5 schools, and winning a National Championship.

UCF has been doing things “the right way” for a very long time. usf?…has done nothing but lose for a very long time and now they’re going to lose millions on this stadium. It’ll be a failed endeavor when it’s sitting empty due to their continual losing ways.
 
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Have they considered that bigger non-con home games they previously got by being in Ray Jay will no longer be happening in a smaller on campus stadium? Alabama isn't coming to town again unless they agree to play it at Ray Jay. Outside of the FAU home game every other year, maybe a game against Memphis, which of the conference games is going to excite people enough to sell tickets and get people in the stands buying concessions?
 
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90Knight said:
What usf continues to fail to realize is that they’re a perpetual losing program and that their lack of achievement on the field is what kept them out of the Big XII. An on campus stadium will sit empty when they continue their losing ways.

We have a packed bounce house which helps us recruit, gives us a home field advantage, excites students and fans, generates lots of $$$$$$$ for us in ticket sales/naming rights/donations, and all of this is due to our years of winning conference championships, BCS bowls, upsetting P5 schools, and winning a National Championship.

UCF has been doing things “the right way” for a very long time. usf?…has done nothing but lose for a very long time and now they’re going to lose millions on this stadium. It’ll be a failed endeavor when it’s sitting empty due to their continual losing ways.
Click to expand...
To be fair, in 2004 UCF went 0-11 with their new young wippersnapper head coach at the helm... in 2005, the UCF board approved an on campus stadium... Yada yada yada, the rest is history. 😎
 
IMHO, it was that old coach O’Leary who was responsible for turning our program around and not the stadium. Without the right coaches and leadership from Dr. Hitt and ADs we’re not in the Big XII. The vision, winning ways and culture they instilled is the difference between UCF and usf. usf received a P5 invitation despite not having an on campus stadium.

Let’s not forget that usf….was in a P5 conference, with all of the monetary and recruiting advantages long before UCF, yet they managed to screw it all up and never capitalized on all of their advantages.

I’ll admit that I’m not fair when it comes to usf and it’s possible they could start winning, but I think their P5 ship has sailed. This next round of realignment may happen within the next couple of months and it’ll be too little too late. If the PAC 12 dissolves with 2-4 teams coming to the Big XII and the Big 10 takes UO and UW Their only hope may be an ACC expansion and that would require an unlikely FSU and Miami approval.
 
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For $350 million I would hope it would be better than ours. But 10 years of that BIG12 money will likely have ours brought up to the same standard, while they struggle to make the payments.
 
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90Knight said:
IMHO, it was that old coach O’Leary who was responsible for turning our program around and not the stadium. Without the right coaches and leadership from Dr. Hitt and ADs we’re not in the Big XII. The vision, winning ways and culture they instilled is the difference between UCF and usf. usf received a P5 invitation despite not having an on campus stadium.

Let’s not forget that usf….was in a P5 conference, with all of the monetary and recruiting advantages long before UCF, yet they managed to screw it all up and never capitalized on all of their advantages.

I’ll admit that I’m not fair when it comes to usf and it’s possible they could start winning, but I think their P5 ship has sailed. This next round of realignment may happen within the next couple of months and it’ll be too little too late. If the PAC 12 dissolves with 2-4 teams coming to the Big XII and the Big 10 takes UO and UW Their only hope may be an ACC expansion and that would require an unlikely FSU and Miami approval.
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We were forced to build an OCS. We had nowhere to play as the Citrus Bowl was being renovated. But it was the best thing to happen to UCF

I am a GOL hugger, but without the OCS we are not in the B12. The Bounce House transformed game day and UCF campus life. It became a focus. That it is bare bones and moves has really helped give us an identity and a relying point as fans. We are protective of our erector set stadium.

I don't think UCF in 2005 had the borrowing power that usf has now. But even if we did I don't see UCF spending that much. usf is focusing on a facility that they can use to generate non-football revenue (and one that does not resemble the Bounce House that they have dissed for so long) . That means lots of bells and whistles. We just needed a place to play football.

I still think usf is a potential valuable member of a P5 conference. But their culture needs to change. It is not about facilities, but in how much your fans buy in. usf fans never embraced the AAC because they still considered themselves above it. They could not get excited about playing East Carolina even if it were for a shot at the championship. They have always looked ahead to a bigger conference. As such they dont have the dedicated fanbase. Winning helps, but they really are starting over.
 
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SCKnight said:
We were forced to build an OCS. We had nowhere to play as the Citrus Bowl was being renovated. But it was the best thing to happen to UCF

I am a GOL hugger, but without the OCS we are not in the B12. The Bounce House transformed game day and UCF campus life. It became a focus. That it is bare bones and moves has really helped give us an identity and a relying point as fans. We are protective of our erector set stadium.

I don't think UCF in 2005 had the borrowing power that usf has now. But even if we did I don't see UCF spending that much. usf is focusing on a facility that they can use to generate non-football revenue (and one that does not resemble the Bounce House that they have dissed for so long) . That means lots of bells and whistles. We just needed a place to play football.

I still think usf is a potential valuable member of a P5 conference. But their culture needs to change. It is not about facilities, but in how much your fans buy in. usf fans never embraced the AAC because they still considered themselves above it. They could not get excited about playing East Carolina even if it were for a shot at the championship. They have always looked ahead to a bigger conference. As such they dont have the dedicated fanbase. Winning helps, but they really are starting over.
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One could say our culture as a fanbase began at the citrus bowl. We brought furniture in box trucks, kegs in pickup trucks, and dj booths etc. we were there to party.

That culture only evolved with the ocs and memory mall. Usf has none of that
 
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