Just for the heck of it, I wanted to see some actual facts about the programs often mentioned as candidates for the B12. Everyone has an opinion, but I wanted to see numbers to give a quantifiable assessment to each program.
The information below covers some key areas that I believe will/would help decide which schools might one day receive an invitation to join the B12. Some of the areas include TV markets, recruiting base, and success against power 5 programs.
One of the biggest determining factors, in my opinion, is fan support, and the best way to gauge that is through fan attendance. In considering attendance, I took the liberty of eliminating any candidate that could not average a minimum of 30,000 fans over a five year period, and I focused on the last five years for the majority of my information, while using information in some cases from other seasons.
One last thought before I start dropping numbers; if a program was not included in a category, their statistics did not indicate they were one of the better candidates for that category, or they provided no new benefit to the conference in that category. For example, when considering top 100 TV markets, I did not include Texas markets on behalf of Houston because the state of Texas is already a part of the B12 TV footprint.
This first section lists the school, then lists the power 5 schools they have defeated since 2000. In some cases, the school may have multiple wins over the same power 5 program, but I only listed the school once.
Information courtesy of: http://www.cfbdatawarehouse.com
ECU
Since 2000...
Duke, WVU, VT, Syracuse, Louisville, Texas Tech, TCU, Virginia, NC State, UNC
BYU
Since 2000...
UVA, Utah, California, Miss State, Syracuse, GT, Notre Dame, TCU, Oregon, Arizona, UCLA, Washington, Oregon State, Oklahoma, Wash State, Ole Miss, Texas
BOISE STATE
Since 2000...
Iowa State, TCU, Oregon State, Oklahoma, Oregon, VT, Utah, Georgia, Arizona State, Washington, Arizona
UCF
Since 2000...
Alabama, NC State, Georgia, Boston College, Penn State, Louisville, Rutgers, Baylor,
CINCINNATI
Since 2000...
Syracuse, TCU, Louisville, WVU, Rutgers, Oregon State, Pittsburgh, NC State, Vanderbilt, VT, Duke, Purdue,
MEMPHIS
Since 2000...
Ole Miss, Louisville
SOUTH FLORIDA
Since 2000...
Pittsburgh, Louisville, Rutgers, Syracuse, UNC, WVU, Kansas, Florida State, Clemson, Notre Dame
HOUSTON
Since 2000...
Louisville, Miss State, OK State, UCLA, Penn State, Rutgers, Pittsburgh
UCONN
Since 2000...
Rutgers, Iowa State, Indiana, Wake Forest, Duke, Pitt, Syracuse, Louisville, Virginia, Baylor, Notre Dame, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, WVU, Maryland
SAN DIEGO STATE
Since 2000...
Utah, Washington State
FRESNO STATE
Since 2000...
California, Colorado, Oregon State, Wisconsin, Georgia Tech, UCLA, Washington, Kansas State, Virginia, Rutgers, Illinois
ARMY
Since 2000...
Baylor, Vanderbilt, Duke, Northwestern, Boston College,
NAVY
Since 2000...
Vanderbilt, Duke, Rutgers, Stanford, Pitt, Notre Dame, Missouri, Wake Forest, Indiana,
AIR FORCE
Since 2000...
Utah, Northwestern, California, Washington, TCU, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech
This next section lists the top 100 TV markets housed within the states in which the potential members reside. I only listed new states that are not currently home to B12 teams.
Information courtesy of: http://www.stationindex.com/tv/tv-markets
TOP 100 TV MARKETS IN STATES
ECU
24 Charlotte
27 Raleigh-Durham
36 Greenville-Spartansburg-Asheville-Anderson
46 Greensboro-High Point-Winston-Salem
92 Tri-Cities (TN-VA-NC)
103 Greenville-New Bern-Washington
UCF/USF
13 Tampa-St. Pete
16 Miami-Ft. Lauderdale
19 Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbourne
38 West Palm Beach-Ft. Pierce
47 Jacksonville
60 Mobile-Pensacola
62 Ft. Myers-Naples
BYU
33 Salt Lake City
CINCINNATI
17 Cleveland-Akron
32 Columbus
34 Cincinnati
64 Dayton
73 Toledo
MEMPHIS
29 Nashville
48 Memphis
59 Knoxville
92 Tri-Cities (TN-VA-NC)
CONNECTICUT
30 Hartford-New Haven
FRESNO STATE/SAN DIEGO STATE
2 Los Angeles
6 San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose
20 Sacremento-Stockton-Modesto
28 San Diego
55 Fresno-Visalia
Army, Navy and Air Force are national programs and thus narrowing their appeal to the state that houses their campuses seemed to simplify their respective overall television appeal. In case you are wondering, Boise, Idaho is ranked #112.
This next section is brief and covers average rank for number of viewers per game in terms of TV ratings from 2013.
Information courtesy of: http://www.goodbullhunting.com/2013...ball-tv-ratings-2013-regular-season-final-sec
#40 UCF - 1.6 million viewers avg.
#55 Boise State - 1.189 million viewers avg.
#56 San Diego State - 1.134 million viewers avg.
#57 BYU - 1.129 million viewers avg.
#61 UConn - 1.013 million viewers avg.
#62 Navy - 0.990 million viewers avg.
#66 Fresno State - 0.849 million viewers avg.
#68 Air Force - 0.843 million viewers avg.
#70 USF - 0.743 million viewers avg.
#80 Cincinnati - 0.531 million viewers avg.
#84 Houston - 0.371 million viewers avg.
This next section details average home attendance for the last 5 seasons ranked from most/highest to least/lowest. The first number is the average for the last five years. It also shows the single season 5-year high and low, which are the actual numbers as reported by NCAA.org. I used a cutoff of a minimum of 30,000 per year, except for Memphis because they have been a popular name thrown about since expansion talk resumed.
01) BYU – 60, 235 (High: 61,381… Low: 57,141)
02) East Carolina – 47,092 (High: 50,012… Low: 43,985)
03) South Florida – 38,985 (High: 44,550… Low: 30,694)
04) Central Florida – 37,680 (High: 39,614… Low: 34,283)
05) San Diego State – 34,101 (High: 39,865… Low: 30,879)
06) Boise State – 33,912 (High: 35,404… Low: 32,504)
07) Air Force – 33,645 (High: 40,093… Low: 28,161)
08) UConn – 33,596 (High: 38,248… Low: 27,248)
09) Navy – 33,537 (High: 35,558… Low: 32,363)
10) Fresno State – 33,345 (High: 36,917… Low: 29,298)
11) Army – 33,082 (High: 34,262… Low: 31,667)
12) Cincinnati – 31,422 (High: 35,067… Low: 28,840)
13) Memphis – 26,151 (High 33,851… Low: 20,078)
This next section deals with recruiting and which schools add the best recruiting bed to the B12. The numbers indicate the total number of 3, 4, and 5 star recruits produced by each state housing a potential B12 member between 2011-2015 recruiting classes.
Information courtesy of: http://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2015/4/15/8143431/states-most-players-recruits
1) Florida - 1295
2) California - 878
3) Ohio - 462
4) North Carolina - 284
5) Tennessee - 184
5) Maryland - 184
7) Utah - 98
8) New York - 78
9) Colorado - 60
10) Connecticut - 39
11) Idaho - 16
The following graphic shows the total number of all recruits that signed a letter of intent from the top 27 states that produce FBS-level football talent between 2008-2013.
Information courtesy of: http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2013/9/11/4718442/college-football-state-texas-california-florida
The last area has to do with overall on the field results over the last five years. I have the win/loss records of the candidates listed to provide a glimpse of the trending direction of each program, although trends rise and fall with each new season. It doesn't indicate the overall historic significance of the program, but it covers the what-have-you-done-lately area of the program.
EAST CAROLINA
2010: 6-7
2011: 5-8
2012: 8-5
2013: 10-3
2014: 8-5
CENTRAL FLORIDA
2010: 11-3
2011: 5-7
2012: 10-4
2013: 12-1
2014: 9-4
BRIGHAM YOUNG
2010: 7-6
2011: 10-3
2012: 8-5
2013: 8-5
2014: 8-5
BOISE STATE
2010: 12-1
2011: 12-1
2012: 11-2
2013: 8-5
2014: 12-2
SOUTH FLORIDA
2010: 8-5
2011: 5-7
2012: 3-9
2013: 2-10
2014: 4-8
CINCINNATI
2010: 4-8
2011: 10-3
2012: 10-3
2013: 9-4
2012: 9-4
MEMPHIS
2010: 1-11
2011: 2-10
2012: 4-8
2013: 3-9
2014: 10-3
UCONN
2010: 8-5
2011: 5-7
2012: 5-7
2013: 3-9
2014: 2-10
HOUSTON
2010: 5-7
2011: 13-1
2012: 5-7
2013: 8-5
2014: 8-5
SAN DIEGO STATE
2010: 9-4
2011: 8-5
2012: 9-4
2013: 8-5
2014: 7-6
FRESNO STATE
2010: 8-5
2011: 4-9
2012: 9-4
2013: 11-2
2014: 6-8
ARMY
2010: 7-6
2011: 3-9
2012: 2-10
2013: 3-9
2014: 4-8
NAVY
2010: 9-4
2011: 5-7
2012: 8-5
2013: 9-4
2014: 8-5
AIR FORCE
2010: 9-4
2011: 7-6
2012: 6-7
2013: 2-10
2014: 10-3
Different people can look at the same information and come up with different conclusions. With that said, there are a few things that this information suggests to me.
#1 Teams in larger power five conferences clearly benefit in TV ratings from being in those larger conferences as more casual fans appear to tune in to a game if the game features teams from their own conference.
#2 UCF is the clear #1 option in terms of what they bring to the table across the board. Geography and lack of history which affect their perception are their only obstacles. USF was in the running with a lot of positives, but they do not bring anything that UCF wouldn't provide. The separating factors were on the field performance and the fact that UCF TV ratings were more than twice that of USF.
#3 Memphis should not even be in the conversation of joining the Big 12. They fail to produce in nearly every category I looked at.
#4 BYU should be in the mix to join, but for football only.
#5 It is a shame Fresno State and San Diego State are so far out west, because otherwise they would be right in the mix as potential additions to the conference.
#6 Boise State brings a winning program and little else to the table. If they were to ever fall on hard times, they would be no benefit to the conference whatsoever. Considering even the great programs go through dry spells, you cannot help but feel like Boise's days are numbered. Maybe that isn't fair, but it is realistic. And one has to consider that they may never recover from that dry spell if/when it happens.
#7 If I had to pick four teams to bring in to the Big 12 today based on an aggregate of the information I reviewed, the teams would be 1) UCF... 2) BYU*... 3) East Carolina... 4) Cincinnati.
* = Football only.
The information below covers some key areas that I believe will/would help decide which schools might one day receive an invitation to join the B12. Some of the areas include TV markets, recruiting base, and success against power 5 programs.
One of the biggest determining factors, in my opinion, is fan support, and the best way to gauge that is through fan attendance. In considering attendance, I took the liberty of eliminating any candidate that could not average a minimum of 30,000 fans over a five year period, and I focused on the last five years for the majority of my information, while using information in some cases from other seasons.
One last thought before I start dropping numbers; if a program was not included in a category, their statistics did not indicate they were one of the better candidates for that category, or they provided no new benefit to the conference in that category. For example, when considering top 100 TV markets, I did not include Texas markets on behalf of Houston because the state of Texas is already a part of the B12 TV footprint.
This first section lists the school, then lists the power 5 schools they have defeated since 2000. In some cases, the school may have multiple wins over the same power 5 program, but I only listed the school once.
Information courtesy of: http://www.cfbdatawarehouse.com
ECU
Since 2000...
Duke, WVU, VT, Syracuse, Louisville, Texas Tech, TCU, Virginia, NC State, UNC
BYU
Since 2000...
UVA, Utah, California, Miss State, Syracuse, GT, Notre Dame, TCU, Oregon, Arizona, UCLA, Washington, Oregon State, Oklahoma, Wash State, Ole Miss, Texas
BOISE STATE
Since 2000...
Iowa State, TCU, Oregon State, Oklahoma, Oregon, VT, Utah, Georgia, Arizona State, Washington, Arizona
UCF
Since 2000...
Alabama, NC State, Georgia, Boston College, Penn State, Louisville, Rutgers, Baylor,
CINCINNATI
Since 2000...
Syracuse, TCU, Louisville, WVU, Rutgers, Oregon State, Pittsburgh, NC State, Vanderbilt, VT, Duke, Purdue,
MEMPHIS
Since 2000...
Ole Miss, Louisville
SOUTH FLORIDA
Since 2000...
Pittsburgh, Louisville, Rutgers, Syracuse, UNC, WVU, Kansas, Florida State, Clemson, Notre Dame
HOUSTON
Since 2000...
Louisville, Miss State, OK State, UCLA, Penn State, Rutgers, Pittsburgh
UCONN
Since 2000...
Rutgers, Iowa State, Indiana, Wake Forest, Duke, Pitt, Syracuse, Louisville, Virginia, Baylor, Notre Dame, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, WVU, Maryland
SAN DIEGO STATE
Since 2000...
Utah, Washington State
FRESNO STATE
Since 2000...
California, Colorado, Oregon State, Wisconsin, Georgia Tech, UCLA, Washington, Kansas State, Virginia, Rutgers, Illinois
ARMY
Since 2000...
Baylor, Vanderbilt, Duke, Northwestern, Boston College,
NAVY
Since 2000...
Vanderbilt, Duke, Rutgers, Stanford, Pitt, Notre Dame, Missouri, Wake Forest, Indiana,
AIR FORCE
Since 2000...
Utah, Northwestern, California, Washington, TCU, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech
This next section lists the top 100 TV markets housed within the states in which the potential members reside. I only listed new states that are not currently home to B12 teams.
Information courtesy of: http://www.stationindex.com/tv/tv-markets
TOP 100 TV MARKETS IN STATES
ECU
24 Charlotte
27 Raleigh-Durham
36 Greenville-Spartansburg-Asheville-Anderson
46 Greensboro-High Point-Winston-Salem
92 Tri-Cities (TN-VA-NC)
103 Greenville-New Bern-Washington
UCF/USF
13 Tampa-St. Pete
16 Miami-Ft. Lauderdale
19 Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbourne
38 West Palm Beach-Ft. Pierce
47 Jacksonville
60 Mobile-Pensacola
62 Ft. Myers-Naples
BYU
33 Salt Lake City
CINCINNATI
17 Cleveland-Akron
32 Columbus
34 Cincinnati
64 Dayton
73 Toledo
MEMPHIS
29 Nashville
48 Memphis
59 Knoxville
92 Tri-Cities (TN-VA-NC)
CONNECTICUT
30 Hartford-New Haven
FRESNO STATE/SAN DIEGO STATE
2 Los Angeles
6 San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose
20 Sacremento-Stockton-Modesto
28 San Diego
55 Fresno-Visalia
Army, Navy and Air Force are national programs and thus narrowing their appeal to the state that houses their campuses seemed to simplify their respective overall television appeal. In case you are wondering, Boise, Idaho is ranked #112.
This next section is brief and covers average rank for number of viewers per game in terms of TV ratings from 2013.
Information courtesy of: http://www.goodbullhunting.com/2013...ball-tv-ratings-2013-regular-season-final-sec
#40 UCF - 1.6 million viewers avg.
#55 Boise State - 1.189 million viewers avg.
#56 San Diego State - 1.134 million viewers avg.
#57 BYU - 1.129 million viewers avg.
#61 UConn - 1.013 million viewers avg.
#62 Navy - 0.990 million viewers avg.
#66 Fresno State - 0.849 million viewers avg.
#68 Air Force - 0.843 million viewers avg.
#70 USF - 0.743 million viewers avg.
#80 Cincinnati - 0.531 million viewers avg.
#84 Houston - 0.371 million viewers avg.
This next section details average home attendance for the last 5 seasons ranked from most/highest to least/lowest. The first number is the average for the last five years. It also shows the single season 5-year high and low, which are the actual numbers as reported by NCAA.org. I used a cutoff of a minimum of 30,000 per year, except for Memphis because they have been a popular name thrown about since expansion talk resumed.
01) BYU – 60, 235 (High: 61,381… Low: 57,141)
02) East Carolina – 47,092 (High: 50,012… Low: 43,985)
03) South Florida – 38,985 (High: 44,550… Low: 30,694)
04) Central Florida – 37,680 (High: 39,614… Low: 34,283)
05) San Diego State – 34,101 (High: 39,865… Low: 30,879)
06) Boise State – 33,912 (High: 35,404… Low: 32,504)
07) Air Force – 33,645 (High: 40,093… Low: 28,161)
08) UConn – 33,596 (High: 38,248… Low: 27,248)
09) Navy – 33,537 (High: 35,558… Low: 32,363)
10) Fresno State – 33,345 (High: 36,917… Low: 29,298)
11) Army – 33,082 (High: 34,262… Low: 31,667)
12) Cincinnati – 31,422 (High: 35,067… Low: 28,840)
13) Memphis – 26,151 (High 33,851… Low: 20,078)
This next section deals with recruiting and which schools add the best recruiting bed to the B12. The numbers indicate the total number of 3, 4, and 5 star recruits produced by each state housing a potential B12 member between 2011-2015 recruiting classes.
Information courtesy of: http://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2015/4/15/8143431/states-most-players-recruits
1) Florida - 1295
2) California - 878
3) Ohio - 462
4) North Carolina - 284
5) Tennessee - 184
5) Maryland - 184
7) Utah - 98
8) New York - 78
9) Colorado - 60
10) Connecticut - 39
11) Idaho - 16
The following graphic shows the total number of all recruits that signed a letter of intent from the top 27 states that produce FBS-level football talent between 2008-2013.
Information courtesy of: http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2013/9/11/4718442/college-football-state-texas-california-florida
The last area has to do with overall on the field results over the last five years. I have the win/loss records of the candidates listed to provide a glimpse of the trending direction of each program, although trends rise and fall with each new season. It doesn't indicate the overall historic significance of the program, but it covers the what-have-you-done-lately area of the program.
EAST CAROLINA
2010: 6-7
2011: 5-8
2012: 8-5
2013: 10-3
2014: 8-5
CENTRAL FLORIDA
2010: 11-3
2011: 5-7
2012: 10-4
2013: 12-1
2014: 9-4
BRIGHAM YOUNG
2010: 7-6
2011: 10-3
2012: 8-5
2013: 8-5
2014: 8-5
BOISE STATE
2010: 12-1
2011: 12-1
2012: 11-2
2013: 8-5
2014: 12-2
SOUTH FLORIDA
2010: 8-5
2011: 5-7
2012: 3-9
2013: 2-10
2014: 4-8
CINCINNATI
2010: 4-8
2011: 10-3
2012: 10-3
2013: 9-4
2012: 9-4
MEMPHIS
2010: 1-11
2011: 2-10
2012: 4-8
2013: 3-9
2014: 10-3
UCONN
2010: 8-5
2011: 5-7
2012: 5-7
2013: 3-9
2014: 2-10
HOUSTON
2010: 5-7
2011: 13-1
2012: 5-7
2013: 8-5
2014: 8-5
SAN DIEGO STATE
2010: 9-4
2011: 8-5
2012: 9-4
2013: 8-5
2014: 7-6
FRESNO STATE
2010: 8-5
2011: 4-9
2012: 9-4
2013: 11-2
2014: 6-8
ARMY
2010: 7-6
2011: 3-9
2012: 2-10
2013: 3-9
2014: 4-8
NAVY
2010: 9-4
2011: 5-7
2012: 8-5
2013: 9-4
2014: 8-5
AIR FORCE
2010: 9-4
2011: 7-6
2012: 6-7
2013: 2-10
2014: 10-3
Different people can look at the same information and come up with different conclusions. With that said, there are a few things that this information suggests to me.
#1 Teams in larger power five conferences clearly benefit in TV ratings from being in those larger conferences as more casual fans appear to tune in to a game if the game features teams from their own conference.
#2 UCF is the clear #1 option in terms of what they bring to the table across the board. Geography and lack of history which affect their perception are their only obstacles. USF was in the running with a lot of positives, but they do not bring anything that UCF wouldn't provide. The separating factors were on the field performance and the fact that UCF TV ratings were more than twice that of USF.
#3 Memphis should not even be in the conversation of joining the Big 12. They fail to produce in nearly every category I looked at.
#4 BYU should be in the mix to join, but for football only.
#5 It is a shame Fresno State and San Diego State are so far out west, because otherwise they would be right in the mix as potential additions to the conference.
#6 Boise State brings a winning program and little else to the table. If they were to ever fall on hard times, they would be no benefit to the conference whatsoever. Considering even the great programs go through dry spells, you cannot help but feel like Boise's days are numbered. Maybe that isn't fair, but it is realistic. And one has to consider that they may never recover from that dry spell if/when it happens.
#7 If I had to pick four teams to bring in to the Big 12 today based on an aggregate of the information I reviewed, the teams would be 1) UCF... 2) BYU*... 3) East Carolina... 4) Cincinnati.
* = Football only.
