GAME 2: UCF @ Boise State, Sims, predictions, etc.

[mr. knightman]

9/6/2023 GAME 2 Boise State Edition:


Let's recap the Kent State Game:

As expected if not better?

I can't blame Plumlee for one of the INTs, but can for the other one...I really wish "errors" with WRs not catching, or tipping a ball up didn't count against a QB.

Julian destroyed everything, including vegas, with prediction of 56-7...only 1 point off from the final of 56-6. I'm curious if he found Archimedes' dial.

I have also found that computers are good for testing gravity.


Moving on...


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Boise State Fun-Facts:

Boise State's field is blue, in case you didn't know that by now...
Many say that Boise State should be banned from having a blue field and wearing all blue at home. Some have countered by stating that teams that wear all green should then change thier field to something other than green. Seems like good logic. It's fun.
Boise State started as a Junior College.
Boise State's first year in FBS/Div-A was the same as UCF's, 1996.


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Players to watch for Boise State:

#24 George Holani - RB, 5'11" 210 pounds, RS SR/GR. Oh no, not this guy again...

#10 Taylen Green - QB, 6'6" 221 pounds, RS SO. Tall. Had 244 Passing against Washington, longest 50 yards, 2 INTs. Seems like it could pull it together. May struggle against UCF's experienced DL.

#80 Eric McAlister - WR, 6'4" 200 pounds, RS SO. 11 catches for 69 yards against Washington.


***Onto the REAL Beef*** (Or nothing because you're not hungry)

Weather forecast at 7:00PM Eastern kickoff:
Sunset: 8:06pm Mountan
Temp: 85F
Poncho-factor: 0%


TV: FS1 (Eric Collins, Devin Gardner)

Radio:
UCF: 96.9 The Game (Daniels, Colubiale, Adams)
Boise: KBOI 670 AM/93.1 FM (Bob Behler, Pete Cavender)



The computer is still alive, but it has a resentment towards Julian that's starting to show. I ran 12 CPU simulations for a good math spread. Should be mostly clear or partly cloudy, so I did not run any with weather.


Average of 12 simulation results:

UCF 44
Boise St. 39

Sim Avg Spread:
UCF -5 (Vegas: UCF -3.5 7:20pm 9/6 Vegas Insider)


I think this is about right. Winning at Boise State will be hard. Probability generally leans towards a loss.

I don't think UCF will lose...my mind will probably change after the first quarter, but I'm thinking positive vibes.

Plumlee...no more INTs please. K?


"Heart" Prediction:


UCF 38
Boise St. 33

"Heart" spread:

(Trigger warning) CENTRAL FLORIDA : -5 (Vegas be almost damned)

Julian aka "The Soothsayer" returns with his line of dungeon-level doom...

UCF 38
Boise St. 31

Julian's line of doom: UCF -7 (I think he's just trying to be different...ha)

 

[AuburnLegacy_1]

Wait...

Did you say Boise State plays on a blue field? Has anyone else heard this? I need confirmation.

 

[Gwoz]

Holani was a very late scratch in 2021 game, Boise State went on to only rush for 20 yards despite a close game. Both RBs that played in the UCF game are no longer on the team and averaged 3 yards per carry in their careers. Holani averages 5+ yards per carry with 561 career carries.

 

[akahotsizzle]

I only just learned that Chins is their DL coach. I feel better now on Offense. I think we'll score.

Their QB is supposed to be a bigger version of JRP but they kept him bottled up against Washington, much to the chagrin of the Boise fanbase. I think our DL is our single best unit outside of our RBs but running QBs always hurt us, and their RBs are also very solid. I have to think Boise will put up points too.

UCF takes it, 41 - 31. I won't know it until it's all over though because I won't regain consciousness for a while after my heart attack suffered with a Plumlee fumble while being a "competitor" happens, and I collapse on my living room floor.

 

[beelit47]

I only just learned that Chins is their DL coach. I feel better now on Offense. I think we'll score.

Their QB is supposed to be a bigger version of JRP but they kept him bottled up against Washington, much to the chagrin of the Boise fanbase. I think our DL is our single best unit outside of our RBs but running QBs always hurt us, and their RBs are also very solid. I have to think Boise will put up points too.

UCF takes it, 41 - 31. I won't know it until it's all over though because I won't regain consciousness for a while after my heart attack suffered with a Plumlee fumble while being a "competitor" happens, and I collapse on my living room floor.

4 man rush with Nikai running a spy on qb