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Gus Malzahn Average Losses Per Year

ucfjosh2000

Silver Knight
Jan 29, 2003
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Orlando, FL
If you take out the Alabama losses, championship game losses, and bowl losses (one to UCF), Malzahn averaged exactly 3 losses a year at Auburn. He also lost 3 games his only year at Arkansas St. I would love to predict an undefeated season, but according to the facts, we might be in for a 3 loss season.

If that's the case, which 3 games are we losing? My guess is Louisville, Cincinnati, and SMU.

If you throw in Boise St, @ Navy, and Tulane as the toughest remaining games, I see 6 potential losses on the schedule. Going 3-3 in those 6 games is very realistic IMO.

We all know undefeated seasons are super rare, so if he can go 4-2 or even 5-1 in those 6 games, I'll be happy with that.
 

Interesting insight. Sounds about right, I’ll take all of this. I can see DG being extremely efficient with a way higher completion percentage this year. Prob averaging in the 250+ yards per game. Longer drives, no huddle but not necessarily going lightning speed. 2017 was the best, anything close to that then I’m all in.
 
We need to get to the AAC championship game- after that I'll take the results as they come. With the talent on the team and the teams we play against- that would be a successful season.
 
I don't think LSU, Georgia, Texas A&M, or Clemson are on the schedule this year. A lot of coaches would drop 3 games a year with that schedule. Didn't he beat Bama a few times? Just saying. If he wins 10 games a year here, he's a pretty darn good coach. Win 10 games at Auburn, but lose to Bama, not a good year. I think he is going to be pretty fired up this year, and with the way he is recruiting, I think we could be in line for some exciting seasons coming up.
 
I wasn’t frustrated that we lost games over the past two years, I was frustrated with how we lost them. Blowing leads or seemingly being unprepared were painful, I never felt like the other team was doing anything spectacular to beat us.

Regardless of record (well, to a point…), I will enjoy the season if we show progress across the board and play to the strengths we have.
 
One thing I feel better about after last night, red zone. Not so much 20 and in, but inside the 5 yard line. For the last few seasons it seemed like we really struggled to get those yards. With the way we ran the ball last night, I fee like 1st and goal from inside the 5 is going to be almost automatic against our schedule. In years past, I never felt comfortable with that. Running the football is a really good thing. It loosened up Boise's coverage last night. Something that you didn't see in the Heupel era. A power runner like Bowser down on the goal line is something we haven't really had since the GOL era (once a hugger always a hugger, you old timers no what I'm talking about).

I don't agree with having a freshman out their fielding punts. Kickoffs sure, but not punts. That can change the course of the game in the blink of an eye. That being said, I think Gus has a vision of where he wants us to be in 2-3 years. I think he is going to do some things that is going to lead to some of us scratching our heads. Why are you doing this? I think he is going to try and win every ball game on the schedule, but I think he is really thinking a couple of years down the road. Get as many players ready as soon as possible.

I seem him as kind of a hybrid between Frost and GOL. There are times when you go for it and there are times when you play it safe. Frost, and Huepel for that matter, always wanted to go for it, or at least it seemed that way to me. GOL was very conservative, a little to conservative for my taste. Case in point, 4th and I think 3 from the Boise 45 with about 4 minutes left in the 1st half. Frost and Heupeul would have wanted to go for it, and maybe they get it. But, if they don't you hand over the ball to a team that has a good lead and the momentum with great field position. Could have been the ball game. But instead he punted (playing a team game, not just the offense has to win the game).. Played good defense, got a break from the Qb Center shotgun exchange and we got the ball back. Punt returner needs to field the ball though. Then came the turning point, on 3rd and I think it was 11, Boise called timeout when we were (it looked to me) trying to run out the clock. Frost did the same thing his first year against Maryland in an almost identical situation. Maryland ended up converting and going down and scoring right before half and turning the momentum of the game around. This time we benefited and certainly turned the momentum in our favor heading into half. Gus is an experienced coach who, IMO, knows when to be aggressive and when to lay back and take what the other team is going to give you. He will probably be wrong from time to time, but I am willing to bet he gets it right more often than not.

One other thing, it seemed like as the game rolled on, Gus grew more comfortable with calling plays that DG was in sync with. That may take some time to develop, but I think by mid season, look out. Cincy, watch out. In Gus I trust. For now anyways.
 
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One thing I feel better about after last night, red zone. Not so much 20 and in, but inside the 5 yard line. For the last few seasons it seemed like we really struggled to get those yards. With the way we ran the ball last night, I fee like 1st and goal from inside the 5 is going to be almost automatic against our schedule. In years past, I never felt comfortable with that. Running the football is a really good thing. It loosened up Boise's coverage last night. Something that you didn't see in the Heupel era. A power runner like Bowser down on the goal line is something we haven't really had since the GOL era (once a hugger always a hugger, you old timers no what I'm talking about).

I don't agree with having a freshman out their fielding punts. Kickoffs sure, but not punts. That can change the course of the game in the blink of an eye. That being said, I think Gus has a vision of where he wants us to be in 2-3 years. I think he is going to do some things that is going to lead to some of us scratching our heads. Why are you doing this? I think he is going to try and win every ball game on the schedule, but I think he is really thinking a couple of years down the road. Get as many players ready as soon as possible.

I seem him as kind of a hybrid between Frost and GOL. There are times when you go for it and there are times when you play it safe. Frost, and Huepel for that matter, always wanted to go for it, or at least it seemed that way to me. GOL was very conservative, a little to conservative for my taste. Case in point, 4th and I think 3 from the Boise 45 with about 4 minutes left in the 1st half. Frost and Heupeul would have wanted to go for it, and maybe they get it. But, if they don't you hand over the ball to a team that has a good lead and the momentum with great field position. Could have been the ball game. But instead he punted (playing a team game, not just the offense has to win the game).. Played good defense, got a break from the Qb Center shotgun exchange and we got the ball back. Punt returner needs to field the ball though. Then came the turning point, on 3rd and I think it was 11, Boise called timeout when we were (it looked to me) trying to run out the clock. Frost did the same thing his first year against Maryland in an almost identical situation. Maryland ended up converting and going down and scoring right before half and turning the momentum of the game around. This time we benefited and certainly turned the momentum in our favor heading into half. Gus is an experienced coach who, IMO, knows when to be aggressive and when to lay back and take what the other team is going to give you. He will probably be wrong from time to time, but I am willing to bet he gets it right more often than not.

One other thing, it seemed like as the game rolled on, Gus grew more comfortable with calling plays that DG was in sync with. That may take some time to develop, but I think by mid season, look out. Cincy, watch out. In Gus I trust. For now anyways.
I love your comments, agree with all of it. I also found myself a little frustrated when Gus punted that 4th and 2 exchange but then had to tell myself this is how good coaches with good defenses/offenses play the game to win. We have to re-work our brain for this. I was super impressed with Gus and his game plan. Take away the 2 mistake throws and that game would have been a blow out.
 
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Predicted the Louisville loss but obviously didn't predict Gabriel to go down and then to lose to Navy. I had 3 losses predicted, but now that's likely to be 4+. I don't think you can really fault a coach when you lose your starting QB, especially when you're next best option is a true freshman. I'm still rooting of course to win the remaining 8 regular season games, but with all the injuries the chances of that have gone way down. I'm hoping 4 is the max number of games we lose and we finish no worse than 8-4. If that's the case, wonder which bowl we get and what opponent. Likely a G5 opponent right?
 
Predicted the Louisville loss but obviously didn't predict Gabriel to go down and then to lose to Navy. I had 3 losses predicted, but now that's likely to be 4+. I don't think you can really fault a coach when you lose your starting QB, especially when you're next best option is a true freshman. I'm still rooting of course to win the remaining 8 regular season games, but with all the injuries the chances of that have gone way down. I'm hoping 4 is the max number of games we lose and we finish no worse than 8-4. If that's the case, wonder which bowl we get and what opponent. Likely a G5 opponent right?
Saw an article that says Tennessee
 
I predicted 8-4 before the season, stating our D would be suspect as a result of Heupel's final season. And I was right.

Had we not had the injuries, that might have held. Now I just want 0.500. We're also living on transfers.

So I don't expect 2022 to be that much better, especially the D. We won't be competitive until 2023.

I am rather enjoying the utter ignorance of the UCF program by Auburn fans though. They clearly don't follow us and just assume every G5 can go undefeated and not have depth issues.
 
I don't think LSU, Georgia, Texas A&M, or Clemson are on the schedule this year. A lot of coaches would drop 3 games a year with that schedule. Didn't he beat Bama a few times? Just saying. If he wins 10 games a year here, he's a pretty darn good coach. Win 10 games at Auburn, but lose to Bama, not a good year. I think he is going to be pretty fired up this year, and with the way he is recruiting, I think we could be in line for some exciting seasons coming up.

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I don't think LSU, Georgia, Texas A&M, or Clemson are on the schedule this year. A lot of coaches would drop 3 games a year with that schedule. Didn't he beat Bama a few times? Just saying. If he wins 10 games a year here, he's a pretty darn good coach. Win 10 games at Auburn, but lose to Bama, not a good year. I think he is going to be pretty fired up this year, and with the way he is recruiting, I think we could be in line for some exciting seasons coming up.

Don't do this to yourself.
 
If you take out the Alabama losses, championship game losses, and bowl losses (one to UCF), Malzahn averaged exactly 3 losses a year at Auburn. He also lost 3 games his only year at Arkansas St. I would love to predict an undefeated season, but according to the facts, we might be in for a 3 loss season.

If that's the case, which 3 games are we losing? My guess is Louisville, Cincinnati, and SMU.

If you throw in Boise St, @ Navy, and Tulane as the toughest remaining games, I see 6 potential losses on the schedule. Going 3-3 in those 6 games is very realistic IMO.

We all know undefeated seasons are super rare, so if he can go 4-2 or even 5-1 in those 6 games, I'll be happy with that.
Just wait brugh, it is gonna get much, much worse.
 
First, let me assure UCF fans all info contained herein is based on data, history and experience with Gus as head coach. It is only meant as a warning of what the future holds. Get off the bus NOW.
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We had our own version that evolved over a few years. Everything included is in there for a reason.
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I wasn’t frustrated that we lost games over the past two years, I was frustrated with how we lost them. Blowing leads or seemingly being unprepared were painful, I never felt like the other team was doing anything spectacular to beat us.

Regardless of record (well, to a point…), I will enjoy the season if we show progress across the board and play to the strengths we have.
Bro, I feel for you, but you guys hired a coach that is well known for exactly this. LSU Auburn 2017, Gus blew a 23-0 lead to LSU after they had lost two weeks earlier to TROY. We later beat Bama and UGA that year and then lost to UCF in the bowl game. Gus sucks so much ass its not even funny. After 3 years you'll almost stop caring about football because he makes it so hard to watch.
 
I wasn’t frustrated that we lost games over the past two years, I was frustrated with how we lost them. Blowing leads or seemingly being unprepared were painful, I never felt like the other team was doing anything spectacular to beat us.
You watch Heupel at all?!
If not, I invite you to watch Tulsa and a few others from last year, even the year before. ;)
 
Everything these Auburn fans are saying is exactly how I saw and felt about Heup. They don't know Heup so can't share the perspective that Gus is an upgrade for us.
 
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I think they are saying it’s an even swap. We’ll find out.
Agreed, that being said if Heupel was coaching this season and the events played out exactly as they have there would be a plane flying with a banner saying Fire Heupel on Saturday.
 
Gus in his entire career has never developed a high school QB... he has ruined an enormous list of them from terrible coaching to getting them hurt running his wing T based offense. This goes back to getting run out of Arkansas for using Mitch Mustain as the bait to get a college coaching gig... any other QB that had success of any sort was a transfer or juco. The man also went 5 years without signing a high school offensive tackle... these are facts. Get used to his excuses... and the same ones every single loss, every single year. I have nothing against UCF. I think it is a program with tremendous potential....

Mark these words... Gus is a nice fella, but he is a complete fraud who thinks he is the smartest guy in the room but can't manage a roster effectively and incapable of making adjustments in game... you folks do realize he also cannot manage the clock and either wastes timeouts or does not use them... like for an entire half or game.

Cold hard facts. No sh** talking...just truth.
 
I think they are saying it’s an even swap. We’ll find out.
Try to wrap your head around this: he does not allow the QB to audible at the LOS. That's right - the defense could have all 11 guys lined up on one side of the field, and if Gus has called a running play to that side...you still run the play. High school QBs are allowed to audible. Hell there's probably MIDDLE SCHOOL QBS that are allowed to. Not Gus. He's the most paranoid coach I've ever seen. He LITERALLY trusts no one but himself.

And don't be fooled by whomever is the OC. It's all Gus. He had a half dozen OCs at AU and guess what never changed? That's right, not allowing the QB to audible out of a doomed play. The OC is also forced to call plays from Gus' playbook...so there's that too. The "OC" is an OC in name only.

Also be prepared to go entire seasons without seeing a pass over the middle - the middle of the field scares Gus. All passes are bombs or they go to the sideline. Learn to love WR screens to the sideline - you'll see a dozen of them every Saturday. Best of luck
 
Try to wrap your head around this: he does not allow the QB to audible at the LOS. That's right - the defense could have all 11 guys lined up on one side of the field, and if Gus has called a running play to that side...you still run the play. High school QBs are allowed to audible. Hell there's probably MIDDLE SCHOOL QBS that are allowed to. Not Gus. He's the most paranoid coach I've ever seen. He LITERALLY trusts no one but himself.

And don't be fooled by whomever is the OC. It's all Gus. He had a half dozen OCs at AU and guess what never changed? That's right, not allowing the QB to audible out of a doomed play. The OC is also forced to call plays from Gus' playbook...so there's that too. The "OC" is an OC in name only.

Also be prepared to go entire seasons without seeing a pass over the middle - the middle of the field scares Gus. All passes are bombs or they go to the sideline. Learn to love WR screens to the sideline - you'll see a dozen of them every Saturday. Best of luck

More facts... even have former QB's he destroyed on podcasts saying this stuff. I knew from the first few minutes of the BSU game that Gabriel would be the next victim of Gus and would never make it the whole season. Feel bad for the young man.
 
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