**Hurricane Florence Watch**

[CubanM11]

Something to just start keeping an eye on at the moment. New models showing (both GFS and the Euro) showing NC in some iffyness around the 14 and 15th of next week. I say because we happen to be in NC playing UNC on the 15th.

No crazy hype here but we need to watch it. Hopefully it veers away and no issue here. Run these models and you will see what both major models are saying.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...tl&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018090506&fh=6

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...n=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2018090500&fh=12

 

[Stormthecourt?]

10 days out? Haha

 

[SCKnight]

Now, if we could just get it to hit Lincoln....

 

[Crazyhole]

Now, if we could just get it to hit Lincoln....

We are getting projections that the tropical storm coming in is going to track over us on saturday as it peters out. Could be a wet Saturday in lincoln.

 

[CubanM11]

10 days out? Haha

Again,

only bringing up as models have it going towards NC around next weekend. Just worth watching and keeping under consideration. It could easily veer off before it hits the coast. Lets hope that happens.

 

[Shark19]

Now, if we could just get it to hit Lincoln....

But save the corn itself.....someone needs to think about the corn.

 

[Nautiknight]

So, I am a weather -hurricane junkie. The forecast discussion at the hurricane center is interesting read. Over the past 3 model runs a more westward track keeps actually happening and the models are saying a north Atlantic ridge is building back in. Euro is saying a week trough by day 5 will be around the east coast but it's not strong enough for a big northern turn. The GFS is saying a stronger trough will create enough space in the high to turn. The NHC is saying for now it's somewhere in the middle.

I flip over to the NOAA page for Raliegh and the long term does mention keeping an eye out for Florence towards the end of next week.

 

[Stormthecourt?]

So, I am a weather -hurricane junkie. The forecast discussion at the hurricane center is interesting read. Over the past 3 model runs a more westward track keeps actually happening and the models are saying a north Atlantic ridge is building back in. Euro is saying a week trough by day 5 will be around the east coast but it's not strong enough for a big northern turn. The GFS is saying a stronger trough will create enough space in the high to turn. The NHC is saying for now it's somewhere in the middle.

I flip over to the NOAA page for Raliegh and the long term does mention keeping an eye out for Florence towards the end of next week.

You might as well have been speaking a foreign language with that post

 

[SCKnight]

So, I am a weather -hurricane junkie. The forecast discussion at the hurricane center is interesting read. Over the past 3 model runs a more westward track keeps actually happening and the models are saying a north Atlantic ridge is building back in. Euro is saying a week trough by day 5 will be around the east coast but it's not strong enough for a big northern turn. The GFS is saying a stronger trough will create enough space in the high to turn. The NHC is saying for now it's somewhere in the middle.

I flip over to the NOAA page for Raliegh and the long term does mention keeping an eye out for Florence towards the end of next week.

 

[Poolside Knight]

So, I am a weather -hurricane junkie. The forecast discussion at the hurricane center is interesting read. Over the past 3 model runs a more westward track keeps actually happening and the models are saying a north Atlantic ridge is building back in. Euro is saying a week trough by day 5 will be around the east coast but it's not strong enough for a big northern turn. The GFS is saying a stronger trough will create enough space in the high to turn. The NHC is saying for now it's somewhere in the middle.

I flip over to the NOAA page for Raliegh and the long term does mention keeping an eye out for Florence towards the end of next week.

I nerd out on Hurricanes as well. You get some of the nicest weather days in Florida during these months when a Hurricane is nearby but doesn't hit. Hopefully it turns & doesn't get that High pressure system pushing it into the East Coast

 

[Nautiknight]

The two highest incidents of recorded land falling hurricanes on the Atlantic seaboard are the Florida Keys to Palm Beach then from Charleston to the Outer Banks. On the Gulf coast it's from around Carabelle to Houston is ground zero for hurricanes. This could be one of those storms and its timing could impact the UNC game either with wet weather or total cancellation. Time will tell by this time next week.

 

[Nautiknight]

You might as well have been speaking a foreign language with that post

Let me Mansplain it to you. Hurricanes are low level low pressure storms with a high pressure dome or cap on them. You know this likely from watching TV.

High Pressure is a bubble of similar air like a balloon if you will . It's called sinking air and under high pressure you have clear skies because the air is pressing down from the top of it down to the earth. In order to have storms you need warm moist air to rise from the ground and interact with cold air above it. You need lift from the ground to the sky .

So it turns out high pressure rotates clockwise and low pressure systems like hurricanes rotate counter clockwise. The high pressure over the North Atlantic acts as blocking force like a line backer and it prevents the hurricane from going north. If you are south of the high pressure the prevailing winds will travel from east to west...it steers the hurricane to the west and prevents any northern movement much like a speedy defense keeping the plays east west and not North south .

A trough is like a seam that a receiver or running back slips through between two blockers. It's enough of wedge between two highs where a hurricane can slip in and go north. So if the trough is there the storm can turn and recurve . If the trough is weak , it will not over come the blocking high and head west or toward the sidelines thus towards the eastern seaboard. It's really quite simple. ;-)

 

[CubanM11]

Models not looking good at the current moment. Something to keep watching still.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents

 

[Nautiknight]

Models not looking good at the current moment. Something to keep watching still.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents

If you the Discussion they are saying another high pressure is building in north of the system in the western atlantic. If that comes to fruition, the steering currents will push the storm towards the Southeastern coast. There is a lot of uncertainty still.

 

[Nautiknight]

National Hurricane Center 5 PM update is interesting. The models are now in consensus of a strong blocking high for the Northeast US. They also show Florence reaching major hurricane strength in 36-48 hours. I think we will have an idea about the situation come Monday. The data suggests a land falling major hurricane for the Carolinas later next week.

 

[sonnyt23]

This would suck for my party of 7 as we are all booked into Chapel Hill and on the same flight out of OIA next Thursday. Hopefully this turns north and we can enjoy a Tarheel beatdown!

 

[Mikesi]

I think the chances are pretty low that it affects as far inland as Chapel Hill right at the time of the game Looks like more of a Wed-Friday event. Could be crappy weather, but probably will be passed. Hurricanes usually curve northward and don’t plow east west through the state.

 

[Gwoz]

I think the chances are pretty low that it affects as far inland as Chapel Hill right at the time of the game Looks like more of a Wed-Friday event. Could be crappy weather, but probably will be passed. Hurricanes usually curve northward and don’t plow east west through the state.

If NC is in a state of emergency, which is fairly likely if it's hit by a major hurricane as it's predicted, a football game is a lot less likely to play. I'm going to guess NC is less equipped to handle a major hurricane, but does have the advantage of having more ways for emergency vehicles and utility truck convoys to enter the state.

 

[SirRob94]

Not this again. If this game gets dropped they will say that we played nobody.

What the Cartel thinks of this game: ESPN's matchup predictor UNC 61.5% and UCF 38.6%.

 

[Mikesi]

If NC is in a state of emergency, which is fairly likely if it's hit by a major hurricane as it's predicted, a football game is a lot less likely to play. I'm going to guess NC is less equipped to handle a major hurricane, but does have the advantage of having more ways for emergency vehicles and utility truck convoys to enter the state.

I looked at the National Hurricane website. This looks like a Wednesday and Thursday event. Additionally, Chapel Hill is way inland and often major hurricanes in history don’t effect it. It’s clearly far from the coast. Hurricanes have notoriously veered northward before getting that far inland

Now if it’s a late Thursday and Friday event, that may be more of an issue. Additionally, there’s a lot that can happen between now and Saturday

 

[Mikesi]

Not this again. If this game gets dropped they will say that we played nobody.

What the Cartel thinks of this game: ESPN's matchup predictor UNC 61.5% and UCF 38.6%.

Are you kidding me??? That’s totally messed up.

 

[Mikesi]

If NC is in a state of emergency, which is fairly likely if it's hit by a major hurricane as it's predicted, a football game is a lot less likely to play. I'm going to guess NC is less equippedy to handle a major hurricane, but does have the advantage of having more ways for emergency vehicles and utility truck convoys to enter the state.

If this game gets cancelled. Since the chances are unbelievably small for this to have happened, I’m 100% certain that we are cursed. I booked my freaking hotel in February or March!!!

 

[BlakNGoldAllDay]

Are you kidding me??? That’s totally messed up.

I’m happy with that. Hope UNC kills ECU and then we kill UNC. I’d rather be the underdog and win. Then they can’t say we didn’t play anyone. Need Pitt to win too. Even FAU has to bounce back.

 

[Gwoz]

GT was canceled 6 days after Irma. As of now it looks like the storm is making landfall Thursday afternoon.

 

[Mikesi]

I’m happy with that. Hope UNC kills ECU and then we kill UNC. I’d rather be the underdog and win. Then they can’t say we didn’t play anyone. Need Pitt to win too. Even FAU has to bounce back.

Lots of the above are predicted. Many today are picking Pittsburgh in the upset

We should be 65-80% vs North Carolina. We were prior to the season and it’s at least that now
What’s changed?? I’m shocked. I have to see it myself

 

[Mikesi]

GT was canceled 6 days after Irma. As of now it looks like the storm is making landfall Thursday afternoon.

I understand. The situations are completely different. There are many many things. I’m definitely not saying that it can’t happen

Additionally, we are still several days away and if we know anything, we know that forecasting hurricanes and their paths are so not an exact science

 

[Mikesi]

Latest, looks like projected landfall is more towards the few days right before the game instead of Wednesday. Definitely sucks that there’s a chance.

 

[Gwoz]

Traveling to Lincoln this year could come to reality.

 

[Goldenbuc]

Latest track looks like Friday/Saturday landfall in the Carolinas. They could move the game back to Thursday if it’s hitting on Saturday. If not, this game will be cancelled for sure. Schools won’t take a chance.

 

[BlakNGoldAllDay]

Latest track looks like Friday/Saturday landfall in the Carolinas. They could move the game back to Thursday if it’s hitting on Saturday. If not, this game will be cancelled for sure. Schools won’t take a chance.

Orlando this year and they get home next time.

 

[Nautiknight]

Latest track looks like Friday/Saturday landfall in the Carolinas. They could move the game back to Thursday if it’s hitting on Saturday. If not, this game will be cancelled for sure. Schools won’t take a chance.

The European model has Florence more or less tracking up the I-26 corridor say between Charleston and Charlotte FRiday/Saturday. I live in the Smoky Mountains and if the Euro is right we are going to get wet. The governor issued a state of emergency this morning for NC.

 

[Stormthecourt?]

The European model has Florence more or less tracking up the I-26 corridor say between Charleston and Charlotte FRiday/Saturday. I live in the Smoky Mountains and if the Euro is right we are going to get wet. The governor issued a state of emergency this morning for NC.

If it stays on course the game will be cancelled. They will say they don’t have the police and ambulances to spare for a football game

 

[Mikesi]

This ****ing sucks!!!

 

[MercedesKnight]

Orlando this year and they get home next time.

That's looking like the best option. Is that even possible? If so, they need to start making arrangements like, right now.

 

[Lurky]

I'm guessing NC would rather not play and reschedule a cupcake. No way they are coming to Orlando, IMO.

 

[Centralflorida09]

Let's give it a few days.....odds are this is hype. Taking the fam up to Chapel Hill, let's bring it Knight Nation! Let's fill the stadium, tickets are cheap on Vivid.....

 

[Stormthecourt?]

Does anyone know if hurricanes can knock over civil war statues?

 

[Mikesi]

Projected to be over the North Carolina area at 8:00 A.M. Thursday.

Chapel Hill is 155 Miles from the Atlantic Ocean in the southeast direction

 

[LemmyKilmister]

This isn't looking good.

 

[Stormthecourt?]

This isn't looking good.

Sucks because this would have been an easy ACC win.

But some things are more important than football and I hope the North Carolina folks homes and businesses survive the storm