I think it could go several ways. Trump's in far more danger in the senate than conventional wisdom dictates. Still most likely they don't convict, but I think we're probably around 20% right now. Bigger shoes would have to drop for conviction, but with Bolton, Mulvaney, Perry, and Rudy all potentially drawn into testify at some point (possibly in the Senate), plenty of variables left. The House hearings are a big deal, but the Senate trial is going to be even bigger. Front page news, day after day after day for weeks on end.
If after the show is over and Trump remains President, he's likely to be substantially weakened politically but also emboldened. The general election will be nuts, with Trump shedding what little restraint he has left, claiming everything is a fraud and hoax, giving us the most politically awkward transition of power ever. Think "Scott Frost deletes recruiting database" kind of scorched earth.