Used ESPN probabilities of winning each game (80%, 70%, 49%, and 20% for Tulane, Cincy, Tulsa, and USF. Added all combinations for going 0-4, 1-3, 2-2, 3-1, 4-0 (1, 4, 6, 4, and 1 combinations). Results:
Pr(0 win) = 2.4%
Pr(1 win) = 18.5%
Pr(2 win) = 42.2%
Pr(3 win) = 31.4%
Pr(4 win) = 5.5%
By far the most likely specific outcome is WWLL, obviously, but that has only a 23% chance.
The next most likely are WLLL (boo!) at 10% and WLWL at 9% chance.
Pr(0 win) = 2.4%
Pr(1 win) = 18.5%
Pr(2 win) = 42.2%
Pr(3 win) = 31.4%
Pr(4 win) = 5.5%
By far the most likely specific outcome is WWLL, obviously, but that has only a 23% chance.
The next most likely are WLLL (boo!) at 10% and WLWL at 9% chance.
