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Only Hawaii and Vermont are Good

Yeah, who could POSSIBLY question a paper on a RESPITATORY virus done by an ECONOMIC organization that's NOT even peer reviewed? :rolleyes:

Lap it up jizz junkies!

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The questioning would be through a study that shows that outdoor gathering are high risk for coronavirus spread. Not just shaking your fist in the air in disagreement.
 
If you’re shunning people for gathering shun all people for gathering regardless of where they are.

I understand being locked in a 49x49 bar is bad. That closing makes sense.

I get that outside has the air and sun to help combat It. If you believe that the sun helps.

But you still should avoid groups, according to your good doctor. protests and beaches are not avoiding groups. I can’t see how you can condone one as not spreading but the other as spreading. Logically, you can’t say that one outside thing is safer than the other when there is in incomplete and skewed set of data
 
The results dont lie.

Everything else is just your opinion.

You mean the results of contact tracing where they aren’t allowed to collect unbiased data since they can’t ask questions? Yeah I’m sure those numbers are 100% accurate.
 
If you’re shunning people for gathering shun all people for gathering regardless of where they are.

I understand being locked in a 49x49 bar is bad. That closing makes sense.

I get that outside has the air and sun to help combat It. If you believe that the sun helps.

But you still should avoid groups, according to your good doctor. protests and beaches are not avoiding groups. I can’t see how you can condone one as not spreading but the other as spreading. Logically, you can’t say that one outside thing is safer than the other when there is in incomplete and skewed set of data
I’m not condoning anything. Just telling you that one is higher risk than the other. Not that either is zero risk. We have shut down bars because in addition to being high risk, it is more enforceable than a general ban on all gatherings.
 
You mean the results of contact tracing where they aren’t allowed to collect unbiased data since they can’t ask questions? Yeah I’m sure those numbers are 100% accurate.
I mean the people infected. Early open states are getting crushed. Late open states are ok for now.
 
I’m not condoning anything. Just telling you that one is higher risk than the other. Not that either is zero risk. We have shut down bars because in addition to being high risk, it is more enforceable than a general ban on all gatherings.

I get that. Im not opposed to It, in fact I think a general ban from Jump Street would have been the best move. Total shutdown and move on. But now, if you’re picking and choosing things to close I get banning all indoor things. But for some people on here (not you) to say Protests don’t spike It, but going to the beach, or the anti mask protesters does is just not logical.
 
I mean the people infected. Early open states are getting crushed. Late open states are ok for now.

16 States should go back into Stay at Home. Anyone on that list orange or above. Which means almost half the country has failed.
 
What is the narrative? That outdoor spread is less likely than indoor? Particularly doing an activity where a mask can be worn (protest) vs one where it cannot (drinking in a bar). The only semi valid point is it’s going to be hard to contact trace a gathering that doesn’t have a particular location and easily identifiable group of people with whom there was an interaction. I’m pretty sure they can ask people if they have been in any outdoor gatherings. They can ask if they have been to the open theme parks right? I don’t see those closing at this point due to outbreaks.

by the way saying that the virus cannot spread outdoors is Inaccurate as well and I don’t think anyone is saying that. All people are saying is that it is a lower risk activity than sitting stationary in an indoor environment with an infected person. That much should be common sense. The fact is that outdoor gatherings (protest or any other) have not been traced to virus outbreaks. Yet. Not to say it couldn’t happen.
You can have outdoor scenarios where rate of transmission is less than indoor situations. All outdoor situations are not the same. Outdoor has a number of variables when it comes to transmission of biological (or chemical) agents and it's not the end all and be all of the answer. Things like temperature, wind, humidity, terrain, cloud cover, wind stability, and presence of sunlight all have dramatic effect on the dispersion models that we use in the CBRN world when doing hazard modeling and consequence management. The probability of infection/probability of contagion algorithms also take into account exposure time, protective measures and known r0 of the virus. I can run the same V&V'ed advanced models on our systems right now that the military and federal governments use that show an alarming rate of transmission from the protests given that they occurred at night in warm and dry weather conditions and involved people without PPE training and minimal PPE equipment associating for hours and hours in close proximity performing anything from minimal to strenuous activity. The narrative that protests didn't spread and don't spread is false. The reason that the media is running with it is that the government is quite simply not looking for it and actively avoiding looking for it in many cases.

It is inconceivable that there were not increased transmissions from the protests and the one study that analyzed it tried to say that there were no spikes because the increased transmission was offset by people avoiding the protests. There are all kinds of issues with that. First, they couldn't even categorize the transmissions from the protests. Second, even if you measured the initial transmissions from the protest as small, the subsequent retransmissions would all track back to the protests. The bar would be an exacerbation, not the origin. You'd have to condition out all of the transmissions that occurred because the index patients got theirs at the protests to isolate for bars and no one has done that. Additionally, the age group of people that spiked coincides with the age group of the people at the protests, and that isn't a coincidence. The fact that the same age group then went out to bars in the days and weeks after the protests does not disqualify the protests from being strong sources, especially when the protests brought people from many disparate locations together thus contaminating areas that were uncontaminated.

From a consequence management standpoint, you do need to lock down bars as they are a venue with a very high rate of transmission. But, all things being equal, you should also keep the protests to a minimum, even though they are outside. There's a reason that the guidelines in many states limited outdoor gatherings as well and to groups as small as 50. Simply put, to excuse the protestors from their responsibility in transmitting COVID is quite irresponsible.
 
You can have outdoor scenarios where rate of transmission is less than indoor situations. All outdoor situations are not the same. Outdoor has a number of variables when it comes to transmission of biological (or chemical) agents and it's not the end all and be all of the answer. Things like temperature, wind, humidity, terrain, cloud cover, wind stability, and presence of sunlight all have dramatic effect on the dispersion models that we use in the CBRN world when doing hazard modeling and consequence management. The probability of infection/probability of contagion algorithms also take into account exposure time, protective measures and known r0 of the virus. I can run the same V&V'ed advanced models on our systems right now that the military and federal governments use that show an alarming rate of transmission from the protests given that they occurred at night in warm and dry weather conditions and involved people without PPE training and minimal PPE equipment associating for hours and hours in close proximity performing anything from minimal to strenuous activity. The narrative that protests didn't spread and don't spread is false. The reason that the media is running with it is that the government is quite simply not looking for it and actively avoiding looking for it in many cases.

It is inconceivable that there were not increased transmissions from the protests and the one study that analyzed it tried to say that there were no spikes because the increased transmission was offset by people avoiding the protests. There are all kinds of issues with that. First, they couldn't even categorize the transmissions from the protests. Second, even if you measured the initial transmissions from the protest as small, the subsequent retransmissions would all track back to the protests. The bar would be an exacerbation, not the origin. You'd have to condition out all of the transmissions that occurred because the index patients got theirs at the protests to isolate for bars and no one has done that. Additionally, the age group of people that spiked coincides with the age group of the people at the protests, and that isn't a coincidence. The fact that the same age group then went out to bars in the days and weeks after the protests does not disqualify the protests from being strong sources, especially when the protests brought people from many disparate locations together thus contaminating areas that were uncontaminated.

From a consequence management standpoint, you do need to lock down bars as they are a venue with a very high rate of transmission. But, all things being equal, you should also keep the protests to a minimum, even though they are outside. There's a reason that the guidelines in many states limited outdoor gatherings as well and to groups as small as 50. Simply put, to excuse the protestors from their responsibility in transmitting COVID is quite irresponsible.

Love this guy so much
 
bc Forbes is some idealistic publication*
You mean the Forbes article that just reported on the findings of a study...funded by the Koch brothers? Best believe if they found a link they would be shouting it from rooftops and Faux News would have it as the top headline.
 
I am for closing down bars and night clubs again, as the people there tend to ignore social distancing. The protest out side should have been better controlled, and beaches that have over crowding should be closed for the weekend of the 4th. Reopen beaches Tuesday. not all beaches are overcrowded, so local govt's should decide on closings. you don't need a total shutdown.
 
11,500 infections and 17 deaths in Florida. How long are we going to be scared?
For as long as the media needs ratings and there is no other story that moves the dial more. People who have no clue are faithfully devoted to the words of other people who have no clue as if it were a religion. At least some people listen to epidemiologists, but even they will contradict each other because the majority of their knowledge about any novel virus comes after the virus has run its course.
 
We aren't even at the level of this being the flu anymore. This is the common cold.
Suggesting the virus isn't dangerous and nothing to worry about is a self-defeating message. It's messages like your gem that has caused our country's new infection spike.

I'm curious, how is this approach helping our economy? Inquiring minds want to know.
 
Suggesting the virus isn't dangerous and nothing to worry about is a self-defeating message. It's messages like your gem that has caused our country's new infection spike.

I'm curious, how is this approach helping our economy? Inquiring minds want to know.

A spike that isn't really killing very many people. The virus is mutating and burning itself out, just like every virus as it infects more people. If we hadn't closed the colleges and schools we would have gotten here back in May.
 
A spike that isn't really killing very many people. The virus is mutating and burning itself out, just like every virus as it infects more people.
I hear ya. It didn't 'magically disappear' in April...or May...or June....BUT JULY??? THIS IS IT, BABY!!!
If we hadn't closed the colleges and schools we would have gotten here back in May.
Listen to the board's virologist, Crazyhole!!! If we'd ignored this deadly virus from the very beginning, we'd be completely over it by now. Right, Jen?
raw
 
I hear ya. It didn't 'magically disappear' in April...or May...or June....BUT JULY??? THIS IS IT, BABY!!!
Listen to the board's virologist, Crazyhole!!! If we'd ignored this deadly virus from the very beginning, we'd be completely over it by now. Right, Jen?
raw


The more people it infects that have a healthy immune system, the more it mutates and becomes less deadly. Thats not a hard concept to understand.
 
Funny how the chud whine about the pandemic has always been, "WE CAN'T LIVE OUR LIVES HIDING!!!!"

God forbid there was a sensible middle-ground -- you know, like following the Trump Administration's State guidelines for reopening the economy. Did that happen? Why didn't it happen?

But does THAT ever get discussed? NO.
 
Funny how the chud whine about the pandemic has always been, "WE CAN'T LIVE OUR LIVES HIDING!!!!"

God forbid there was a sensible middle-ground -- you know, like following the Trump Administration's State guidelines for reopening the economy. Did that happen? Why didn't it happen?

But does THAT ever get discussed? NO.
So why in the hell do you blame trump for it?
 
So why in the hell do you blame trump for it?
The day after he had a press conference to outline them -- and after I made a big deal out of telling you all that (trumpet fanfare) Trump's plan was a good, commonsense step forward -- he totally ignored them and began encouraging Governors to 'do their own thing.'
 
The day after he had a press conference to outline them -- and after I made a big deal out of telling you all that (trumpet fanfare) Trump's plan was a good, commonsense step forward -- he totally ignored them and began encouraging Governors to 'do their own thing.'
He told the press before announcing the plan that governors had the authority to call their own shots. Are you mad that he didn't enforce his plan on a national level?
 
A spike that isn't really killing very many people. The virus is mutating and burning itself out, just like every virus as it infects more people. If we hadn't closed the colleges and schools we would have gotten here back in May.
You may be jumping the gun a bit on this one. Deaths lag presentation of symptoms by 20-30 days. If the mass transmission events were Memorial Day weekend and the protests the next week, then you see the first infections are 3-7 days from there, and the spike occurs with 2nd and 3rd transmission. Taking the median 5 days, that’s 15 days out of first week of June, which corresponds with the actual spikes that have been occurring. Take 20 days from June 20th and you should see a spike in deaths. So we should start seeing it towards the end of next week.

The difference this time around is that we have months of clinical experiences in treating and so you’d think we’ll see better outcomes. Which may extend the timeframe or may temper the spike.
 
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You may be jumping the gun a bit on this one. Deaths lag presentation of symptoms by 20-30 days. If the mass transmission events were Memorial Day weekend and the protests the next week, then you see the first infections are 3-7 days from there, and the spike occurs with 2nd and 3rd transmission. Taking the median 5 days, that’s 15 days out of first week of June, which corresponds with the actual spikes that have been occurring. Take 20 days from June 20th and you should see a spike in deaths. So we should start seeing it towards the end of next week.

The difference this time around is that we have months of clinical experiences in treating and so you’d think we’ll see better outcomes. Which may extend the timeframe or may temper the spike.
Deaths have been declining for weeks. Whether that's from improved treatment or a mutation doesn't really matter. The fact of the matter is that fewer and fewer people are dying and thats the only metric that matters. Of course, the current scare is "long term effects" which are entirely unquantifiable and irrelevant so that whole scare tactic needs to be ignored. Kind of like the "i knew a guy who drank 17 cokes in 3 minutes and BAM! 30 years later he died of cancer" type of thing. Unless the experts can prove some sort of causality, which they still have yet to do on a short term level, there's no reason to think this thing is something to be afraid of.
 
Deaths have been declining for weeks. Whether that's from improved treatment or a mutation doesn't really matter. The fact of the matter is that fewer and fewer people are dying and thats the only metric that matters. Of course, the current scare is "long term effects" which are entirely unquantifiable and irrelevant so that whole scare tactic needs to be ignored. Kind of like the "i knew a guy who drank 17 cokes in 3 minutes and BAM! 30 years later he died of cancer" type of thing. Unless the experts can prove some sort of causality, which they still have yet to do on a short term level, there's no reason to think this thing is something to be afraid of.
The ascent of the cases curve began roughly 3 weeks ago. In places like Florida which has been responsible for much of the uptick, the 7 day rolling average of deaths has started to climb again.

You can view here

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/

Today’s 29 deaths were the most Florida has ever reported for a Sunday. Friday’s 68 deaths were the most reported in more than a month. Unfortunately the spread has increased at least in Florida and a July 4th long weekend is unlikely to help matters.
 
The ascent of the cases curve began roughly 3 weeks ago. In places like Florida which has been responsible for much of the uptick, the 7 day rolling average of deaths has started to climb again.

You can view here

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/

Today’s 29 deaths were the most Florida has ever reported for a Sunday. Friday’s 68 deaths were the most reported in more than a month. Unfortunately the spread has increased at least in Florida and a July 4th long weekend is unlikely to help matters.
Not surprising, but still not cause for concern. You guys won't get anywhere near New Yorks numbers even with a larger population and more domestic travel. Same with California, Texas, and Arizona.
 
Not surprising, but still not cause for concern. You guys won't get anywhere near New Yorks numbers even with a larger population and more domestic travel. Same with California, Texas, and Arizona.
I don’t doubt the numbers will stay relatively low. Just have to be concerned with the record number of “pneumonia” deaths that are also occurring.
 
I don’t doubt the numbers will stay relatively low. Just have to be concerned with the record number of “pneumonia” deaths that are also occurring.
I wouldn't worry about it. Just take texas and California, 2 states that are diametrically opposed politically. If you land somewhere within the range of those 2 states its probably likely that the numbers are accurate.
 
Your conspiracy theory over pneumonia deaths don't add up to New York numbers. Even if half the pneumonia deaths were covid, it would only bump us to 6,000 deaths in a larger state. Cuomo was an idiot sending covid patients to nursing homes is why New York had the deaths.

Red State governors bad

Blue State governors good
 
Your conspiracy theory over pneumonia deaths don't add up to New York numbers. Even if half the pneumonia deaths were covid, it would only bump us to 6,000 deaths in a larger state. Cuomo was an idiot sending covid patients to nursing homes is why New York had the deaths.
The number of reported pneumonia deaths being high isn’t really a theory so much as an actual thing that is happening.
 
16 States should go back into Stay at Home. Anyone on that list orange or above. Which means almost half the country has failed.

No one should go back to stay at home, as long as the death rates are not rising. and they are not. I have no problems with closing businesses that encourage bad behavior, ie Bars n night clubs. and trying to control very large crowds, concerts, sports ect.

As long as the virus effects are kept mostly under control, you need it to keep working it's way through the population.
 
The number of reported pneumonia deaths being high isn’t really a theory so much as an actual thing that is happening.

Agree, but the bottom line is even if 1/2 of them were Covid, and there is 0 evidence of that, Fla death rate is still way below NY. Cuomo made the NY rate go way higher than it should, when he forced retirement homes to take in covid-19 patients.
 
As long as the virus effects are kept mostly under control, you need it to keep working it's way through the population.

Why do you think this? Honestly you seem more level headed on the virus than you are on most topics so why should we just let this spread when we have a vaccine that has shown great results in the first human trials and is being produced ahead of time in anticipation of approvals? We could have 50 million vaccines in a few months. It doesn't look like herd immunity will happen before a vaccine so why would any infections help us?
 
Where are you seeing a few months for a vaccine? Just read an article from a Harvard doctor hoping a vaccine would be ready in early 2021.
Pfizer said they could have it produced and ready for administration as soon as it get approved because they are on the fast track program. Their RNA vaccine showed higher antibody counts than in recovered covid paitents. Only side effect was fever and they are moving to a larger study group. Its a partnership with BioNTech and it has a ton of money and government backing.

We could have results in October and vaccines by November or December from the interview I saw with their COO.
 
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