Scheduling-I’m starting to wonder!

[surfer98]

Just think if the 2017 team played UNC, Pitt, Stanford, and Georgia Tech in OOC games and went undefeated. I think it would have been very difficult to keep us out. Wouldn’t that have changed the conversation in our favor or at least put some real pressure on the committee. I also wonder if we should strategically accept 2 for 1’s with certain schools we feel will help us in some fashion (Recruiting, Brand Recognition, away games in Georgia for alumni, etc) Just as a side note- I would never accept a 2 for 1 with an in state school. Does nothing for us! Please change my mind on this.

 

[Stormthecourt?]

I have a secret to share with you - We are never ever ever getting invited to the invitational out of the AAC!

The quicker our fans accept this the more relaxing and enjoyable our seasons will become. People will have realistic expectations and we can rack up NY6 trophies

 

[surfer98]

I don’t know if I agree. Everyone always tells us to play better teams. Maybe we should and see what happens instead of giving up and accepting a glass ceiling of a NY6 bowl game.

 

[Ucfmikes]

I don’t know if I agree. Everyone always tells us to play better teams. Maybe we should and see what happens instead of giving up and accepting a glass ceiling of a NY6 bowl game.

Where are we going to get 4, P5 games a year from chief?? It’s not THAT simple. You do realize that we only have 1 for 2021 and 0.000000 for 2023

Stanford could only play us at home in 2019.
It’s not like Pittsburgh and North Carolina were available in 2017 either. It’s not like DW can magically pick up the phone and schedule all these P5 games

Additionally and mathematically, you lose a game every time you schedule a 2 for 1

 

[Ace of Knights]

I don’t know if I agree. Everyone always tells us to play better teams. Maybe we should and see what happens instead of giving up and accepting a glass ceiling of a NY6 bowl game.

They would just move the goalposts again my friend...

 

[UCF_SystemsEng]

They would just move the goalposts again my friend...

Remember in 2017 when they said if we went undefeated again in 2018 we would have a chance? We weren't even close.

Like @Stormthecourt? said, enjoy the seasons and don't get sucked into drinking their Kool Aid.

 

[Knight Strength]

Just think if the 2017 team played UNC, Pitt, Stanford, and Georgia Tech in OOC games and went undefeated. I think it would have been very difficult to keep us out. Wouldn’t that have changed the conversation in our favor or at least put some real pressure on the committee. I also wonder if we should strategically accept 2 for 1’s with certain schools we feel will help us in some fashion (Recruiting, Brand Recognition, away games in Georgia for alumni, etc) Just as a side note- I would never accept a 2 for 1 with an in state school. Does nothing for us! Please change my mind on this.

I don't think it would have been difficult to keep us out. It would have been very easy for the committee to point to ANY P5 conference schedule and say it was stronger than ours.

I am for strategic 2 for 1 scheduling ONLY if Dr. Danny White decides its a good deal for us. DW has a long-term, forward-thinking, card counting strategy. He is Dr. Strange seeing a million futures, weighing magnitudes of effect, and prioritizing variables in order of precedence. He's playing 3D chess and we're all only capable of playing "Go Fish".

He's determined that home games, fan base size, and revenue are more important than marquee match ups. When we were kept out of the Big 12, it was because of these things, not because recruits don't recognize us or because our SOS isn't strong enough. Those things come AFTER you get into a "P5" conference, not before. The blue bloods have been around 150 years so they have more fans and they get more in donations.

The "everyone" who always tells us to play "P5" teams are the people who want us to fill our schedule with Bama, tOSU, OU, and Clemson so we can take a bunch of Ls and shut up. And if we beat them, we won't get credit for being good, ESPN will say those teams were having down years...so our SOS isn't that strong after all. Dont believe that bulls*** you've heard about Houston being a lock for the CFI after beating OU in 2016. They would never let a "G5" team in with only one blue blood win. Several other teams beat a blue blood AND played a "P5" schedule and they didnt get in either.

I want everyone to temper their enthusiasm about getting into a "P5" conference too. It is stiff competition and we could easily take several Ls the first few years. After only a few years of average seasons, I don't think UCF fans will turn out they way they have been. We will be back to square 1 except well be going up against tougher competition. This will make Ws come harder and building our brand terribly difficult. Let's kill it where were at for a while. The AAC can be as good as any. Tulane has 3 SEC titles. There's a history of success in several AAC programs, it just needs time to keep growing. The AAC just might scoop up Big 12 teams if their commish keeps f***ing up the way he has been.

Is your mind changed?

 

[Stormthecourt?]

I want everyone to temper their enthusiasm about getting into a "P5" conference too. It is stiff competition and we could easily take several Ls the first few years. After only a few years of average seasons, I don't think UCF fans will turn out they way they have been. We will be back to square 1 except well be going up against tougher competition. This will make Ws come harder and building our brand terribly difficult. Let's kill it where were at for a while. The AAC can be as good as any. Tulane has 3 SEC titles. There's a history of success in several AAC programs, it just needs time to keep growing. The AAC just might scoop up Big 12 teams if their commish keeps f***ing up the way he has been.Is your mind changed?

At least under that scenario I’ll have my cabana seats at a discounted rate for years to come.

 

[JAFFX2]

I want everyone to temper their enthusiasm about getting into a "P5" conference too. It is stiff competition and we could easily take several Ls the first few years. After only a few years of average seasons, I don't think UCF fans will turn out they way they have been. We will be back to square 1 except well be going up against tougher competition.............

Is your mind changed?

Nope

 

[goodknightfl]

more p5 games would not matter. in 2017 and 2018 hurricanes cost us a p5 game, do you really think it would have mattered that we played them.

 

[Endeavor.]

I have a secret to share with you - We are never ever ever getting invited to the invitational out of the AAC!

The quicker our fans accept this the more relaxing and enjoyable our seasons will become. People will have realistic expectations and we can rack up NY6 trophies

This is true, but the only reason I can see a lack of P5 teams on the schedule will hurt us is if the committee tries to give the NY6 to another G5 champion.
Last year Herbstreit was trying to make the argument that Fresno State and Utah State were better teams than UCF and I can see the committee intentionally being biased against us unless we go undefeated.

 

[surfer98]

I’m still not convinced that playing better teams isn’t going to better our team and program. For me the biggest issue is that we are letting the committee off the hook by scheduling weak teams- ex. FAMU. If we play good OOC games and beat them it takes away their argument and strengthens the argument we are making. I am firm believer the 2017 team could have beaten anyone. If they would have been given the opportunity to beat multiple power 5 teams throughout the season they could have. Again, strengthening our argument against the cartel. As a sports fan, a throw away game (FCS) is boring and doesn’t build our program, fan base, etc. It seems like we are just accepting a 2nd tier level (G5) and hoping for an invite that might never come.

 

[firm_bizzle]

I’m still not convinced that playing better teams isn’t going to better our team and program. For me the biggest issue is that we are letting the committee off the hook by scheduling weak teams- ex. FAMU. If we play good OOC games and beat them it takes away their argument and strengthens the argument we are making. I am firm believer the 2017 team could have beaten anyone. If they would have been given the opportunity to beat multiple power 5 teams throughout the season they could have. Again, strengthening our argument against the cartel. As a sports fan, a throw away game (FCS) is boring and doesn’t build our program, fan base, etc. It seems like we are just accepting a 2nd tier level (G5) and hoping for an invite that might never come.

We'll play better teams, just not home and home. Probably in a kickoff classic. Right now we just need to keep winning and improving attendance/facilities in preparation for the shakeup of college football in 2025.

 

[Cubs79]

We'll play better teams, just not home and home. Probably in a kickoff classic. Right now we just need to keep winning and improving attendance/facilities in preparation for the shakeup of college football in 2025.

I think counting on kickoff classic games is a mistake. It seems like teams are going away from those to begin with when you look at scheduling down the road, but those games are also meant for TV ratings. UCF vs Cinci primetime game last year received a 2.3 rating on national TV. That isn't bad by any means, but when you consider OSU vs TCU for example, got a 4.2, then I am not sure TV execs would be real excited about a UCF vs Tennessee or something along those lines.

 

[KnightVision82]

Just play P5 in NY6 every season as we do the same thing the SEC teams do which is schedule a bunch of scrub non-conference teams!

 

[Cubs79]

Just play P5 in NY6 every season as we do the same thing the SEC teams do which is schedule a bunch of scrub non-conference teams!

The thing about the SEC scheduling all scrubs is simply a myth. This year alone SEC teams play Clemson, Oregon, Texas, Miami, Notre Dame, WVU, etc out of conference. And that doesn't include the SEC vs ACC games that close out the year.

 

[SCKnight]

I

The "everyone" who always tells us to play "P5" teams are the people who want us to fill our schedule with Bama, tOSU, OU, and Clemson so we can take a bunch of Ls and shut up. And if we beat them, we won't get credit for being good, ESPN will say those teams were having down years...so our SOS isn't that strong after all. Dont believe that bulls*** you've heard about Houston being a lock for the CFI after beating OU in 2016. They would never let a "G5" team in with only one blue blood win. Several other teams beat a blue blood AND played a "P5" schedule and they didnt get in either.
?

The Everyone who says this are the fans who know that this type of scheduling is impossible. Lining up big names along with winning all conference game (because losing one of those is automatic disqualification) along with those big games all in one year is probably statistically impossible and they know it. But since it cannot be established they get to use it whenever they want and will point to FSU in the 80s and now USF. It will be interesting to see what happens if USF gets continually steamrolled

 

[mattropolis]

Just think if the 2017 team played UNC, Pitt, Stanford, and Georgia Tech in OOC games and went undefeated. I think it would have been very difficult to keep us out. Wouldn’t that have changed the conversation in our favor or at least put some real pressure on the committee. I also wonder if we should strategically accept 2 for 1’s with certain schools we feel will help us in some fashion (Recruiting, Brand Recognition, away games in Georgia for alumni, etc) Just as a side note- I would never accept a 2 for 1 with an in state school. Does nothing for us! Please change my mind on this.

It would have been easy to keep us out, because they did keep us out. They left us way out. No amount of wins by any non-P5 program is going to get you in the CFI. We proved that by having back-to-back undefeated regular seasons (and 25 wins in a row). If that doesn’t get you in (which is only the 5th time since 1990....with well over 3,000 total seasons of football played) nothing will.

 

[UCFootball14]

It would have been easy to keep us out, because they did keep us out. They left us way out. No amount of wins by any non-P5 program is going to get you in the CFI. We proved that by having back-to-back undefeated regular seasons (and 25 wins in a row). If that doesn’t get you in (which is only the 5th time since 1990....with well over 3,000 total seasons of football played) nothing will.

That’s an insane stat 5/3000. 0.16% damn. We good

 

[Square Knight]

I think counting on kickoff classic games is a mistake. It seems like teams are going away from those to begin with when you look at scheduling down the road, but those games are also meant for TV ratings. UCF vs Cinci primetime game last year received a 2.3 rating on national TV. That isn't bad by any means, but when you consider OSU vs TCU for example, got a 4.2, then I am not sure TV execs would be real excited about a UCF vs Tennessee or something along those lines.

If it was UCF vs any of the brand name SEC teams, every SEC fan would tune in just to see UCF lose. A lot of other Blue Blood fans would do the same. That is, assuming UCF continued its high level success the year before the game.

 

[SimpleJack53]

I’m still not convinced that playing better teams isn’t going to better our team and program. For me the biggest issue is that we are letting the committee off the hook by scheduling weak teams- ex. FAMU. If we play good OOC games and beat them it takes away their argument and strengthens the argument we are making. I am firm believer the 2017 team could have beaten anyone. If they would have been given the opportunity to beat multiple power 5 teams throughout the season they could have. Again, strengthening our argument against the cartel. As a sports fan, a throw away game (FCS) is boring and doesn’t build our program, fan base, etc. It seems like we are just accepting a 2nd tier level (G5) and hoping for an invite that might never come.

You are drinking the koolaid UF plays 2 FCS teams each year os they win iut they go to the CFP.

SOS has only ever mattered since 2018. Aka they made it up in 2017 to keep us out.

JWB it's the only thing that matters, win them all.

 

[muckdawg24]

The myth is the SEC did schedule more difficult teams, now there is more importance on it they are starting to beef up their slates. UF scheduling Colorado is blockbuster*.

 

[Cubs79]

You are drinking the koolaid UF plays 2 FCS teams each year os they win iut they go to the CFP.

SOS has only ever mattered since 2018. Aka they made it up in 2017 to keep us out.

JWB it's the only thing that matters, win them all.

SOS has been around since the CFP began. It obviously isn't the only factor, and each committee member has their own views much weight they give it, but it most certainly wasn't created as a spite to UCF. Here is an article from 2016 talking about.
http://www.espn.com/college-footbal...l-playoff-committee-strength-schedule-metrics

 

[Cubs79]

The myth is the SEC did schedule more difficult teams, now there is more importance on it they are starting to beef up their slates. UF scheduling Colorado is blockbuster*.

The SEC is like every other conference more or less. Most of their teams play one non conference power 5 team early in the year, and then several have an ACC team at the end of the year. That isn't much different than the Big 10, Pac 12, etc.

 

[surfer98]

SEC has built in strength of schedule with their conference games. AAC doesn’t- that’s why we need to play strong OOC to improve our schedule. This would take away the CFP committee and Power 5 homers arguments. How can anyone knock a OOC schedule with (just examples) Pitt, Duke, Stanford, FIU on the schedule. That coupled with our stronger AAC teams makes an excellent schedule for fans, committee, etc. If we run the table with that schedule we would gain a lot of support around the country to expand the playoffs. I think we need to do what needs to be done to balance the toughest schedule possible and building a fan base.

 

[Knight Strength]

SEC has built in strength of schedule with their conference games. AAC doesn’t- that’s why we need to play strong OOC to improve our schedule. This would take away the CFP committee and Power 5 homers arguments. How can anyone knock a OOC schedule with (just examples) Pitt, Duke, Stanford, FIU on the schedule. That coupled with our stronger AAC teams makes an excellent schedule for fans, committee, etc. If we run the table with that schedule we would gain a lot of support around the country to expand the playoffs. I think we need to do what needs to be done to balance the toughest schedule possible and building a fan base.

I understand your perspective and respect it. I think you're in the minority in that you believe Pitt, Duke, Stanford, and FIU would change the committees assessment of our SOS enough to get into the CFI.

So to explain our perspective, based on the belief that we will never get into the CFI. We don't need to try to strengthen our SOS. There is no benefit to scheduling Miami, UF, and Alabama.

In fact, we will likely get a a couple of losses. With those losses we will easily be eliminated from a chance at the NY6 bowl game. Which is what we believe is the best bowl game we have a shot at.

So not taking 2 for 1s is a strategic scheduling move to allow us the best chance at getting into the NY6 bowl.

 

[Square Knight]

SEC has built in strength of schedule with their conference games. AAC doesn’t- that’s why we need to play strong OOC to improve our schedule. This would take away the CFP committee and Power 5 homers arguments. How can anyone knock a OOC schedule with (just examples) Pitt, Duke, Stanford, FIU on the schedule. That coupled with our stronger AAC teams makes an excellent schedule for fans, committee, etc. If we run the table with that schedule we would gain a lot of support around the country to expand the playoffs. I think we need to do what needs to be done to balance the toughest schedule possible and building a fan base.

Everyone would knock Duke and FIU. They would also knock Pitt unless they start winning 9+ games every year. Haters will ALWAYS find a reason to hate.

 

[surfer98]

I have trouble accepting the best we can do is a NY6 bowl and being okay with it. We can accept the label they give us or fight it. We can fight it with strategically scheduling good quality teams and winning our conference. That would put pressure on the committee. Otherwise, we give them an excuse to keep UCF out. I think the The American Athletic Conference’s reputation is improving. If we want to be considered a good team, we have to beat good teams.

 

[ahabmw]

I have trouble accepting the best we can do is a NY6 bowl and being okay with it. We can accept the label they give us or fight it. We can fight it with strategically scheduling good quality teams and winning our conference. That would put pressure on the committee. Otherwise, we give them an excuse to keep UCF out. I think the The American Athletic Conference’s reputation is improving. If we want to be considered a good team, we have to beat good teams.

Winning a NY6 game is winning big games. How many top 25 “P5” games in one season do you think we would need to win to receive inclusion in the playoff? That doesn’t include that we get lucky and the ones we schedule end up in the top 25 at the end of the year. How strong would our conference have to be that year? What is the likelihood even with 2-1’s that our schedule would line up perfectly for that scenario? Why would those top schools even give us a chance when we’re the ones threatening everything they stand for? The variables are many but I think many people think it’s as easy as picking up the phone and calling (It’s not). The safe bet for us, knowing the odds to get a playoff spot even with the perfect schedule are close to 0, is to maximize revenue. With at least 6home games every year we are selling out every game this season. That is big money for us.

 

[Stormthecourt?]

I have trouble accepting the best we can do is a NY6 bowl and being okay with it. We can accept the label they give us or fight it. We can fight it with strategically scheduling good quality teams and winning our conference. That would put pressure on the committee. Otherwise, we give them an excuse to keep UCF out. I think the The American Athletic Conference’s reputation is improving. If we want to be considered a good team, we have to beat good teams.

You’re buying into the lie that ESPN and the committee keep spewing about “everyone” having a chance. Remember that commercial they play at the beginning of the season where they ask “who’s making it into the invitational this year” and then they flip over the names of twenty schools? UCF is in there sometimes but it’s a lie. They will never allow us in. They don’t let us get close enough to the top 4 at the end of the season

 

[Stormthecourt?]

You’re buying into the lie that ESPN and the committee keep spewing about “everyone” having a chance. Remember that commercial they play at the beginning of the season where they ask “who’s making it into the invitational this year” and then they flip over the names of twenty schools? UCF is in there sometimes but it’s a lie. They will never allow us in. They don’t let us get close enough to the top 4 at the end of the season

And why would they lie about it? Well one is because they want us to watch gameday and the reveal show every week and prop up the ratings. Making us think we have a chance keeps us watching. Also I’m sure there is some antitrust issues at play and they want to proclaim the invitational is open to all

 

[Stetson_1883]

And why would they lie about it? Well one is because they want us to watch gameday and the reveal show every week and prop up the ratings. Making us think we have a chance keeps us watching. Also I’m sure there is some antitrust issues at play and they want to proclaim the invitational is open to all

Humans are idiots.

 

[UCFhonors]

SEC has built in strength of schedule with their conference games. AAC doesn’t- that’s why we need to play strong OOC to improve our schedule. This would take away the CFP committee and Power 5 homers arguments. How can anyone knock a OOC schedule with (just examples) Pitt, Duke, Stanford, FIU on the schedule. That coupled with our stronger AAC teams makes an excellent schedule for fans, committee, etc. If we run the table with that schedule we would gain a lot of support around the country to expand the playoffs. I think we need to do what needs to be done to balance the toughest schedule possible and building a fan base.

You don’t understand what SOS. SOS is simply the average out your opponents winning %. So if you play 12 teams and they play 12 teams there are 144 games. Your SOS would be .500 if your opponent won 72 games or all went 6-6.

Because each game results in a win and loss, all conferences have total SOS of .500 within the conference/ total conference games.

Ultimately, you need to get this second class citizenship crap out of your mind.

Our wins are just as good as any other teams’ wins.

 

[UCFhonors]

You’re buying into the lie that ESPN and the committee keep spewing about “everyone” having a chance. Remember that commercial they play at the beginning of the season where they ask “who’s making it into the invitational this year” and then they flip over the names of twenty schools? UCF is in there sometimes but it’s a lie. They will never allow us in. They don’t let us get close enough to the top 4 at the end of the season

Exactly. In something like 50 years there has been like ~30 teams who have gone undefeated and return their starting QB. All of them expect for one started the next season ranked in the Top 4. Except for UCF. Where were we? 12th or some BS like that.

The ESP5N Cartel isn’t even trying to hide their corruption. This is a media giant who is doing a cash grab through structural corruption. They want everyone to support the same 8 teams to guarantee 2 of them will make it the “finals” and guarantee the most people are watching.

The Mafia has shaved points from a few games and gone to jail. Yet this Media Giant has given fake championships. What they have done is way worse than any cheating in American sports.

If the NBA tried to do what the ESP5N Cartel has done, and the NCAA has turned a blind eye to, there would be lawsuits for days. Nay. Years.

 

[UCFhonors]

Winning a NY6 game is winning big games. How many top 25 “P5” games in one season do you think we would need to win to receive inclusion in the playoff? That doesn’t include that we get lucky and the ones we schedule end up in the top 25 at the end of the year. How strong would our conference have to be that year? What is the likelihood even with 2-1’s that our schedule would line up perfectly for that scenario? Why would those top schools even give us a chance when we’re the ones threatening everything they stand for? The variables are many but I think many people think it’s as easy as picking up the phone and calling (It’s not). The safe bet for us, knowing the odds to get a playoff spot even with the perfect schedule are close to 0, is to maximize revenue. With at least 6home games every year we are selling out every game this season. That is big money for us.

Well said.

And everyone knows home games are an advantage. Economics estimate a home game is an ~17% advantage. That’s huge.

For example “While roulette has a house advantage of 5.26% and craps can be as high as 16%, the house advantage for blackjack can be 1% or lower with a basic blackjack strategy”.

If casinos can make billions off of 2-3% advantage, why would we give up a 17% advantage?

uf plays what 9 home games a year? Hasn’t play true road game since 1987. Of course they are going to have a good winning %. Their conference mates try to do the same thing. So of course, over time, the sec will have good records. But that doesn’t stop Arkansas from losing 10 games last year.

 

[UCFhonors]

And before anyone says, join the ESP5N Cartel. UCF is best hope for change. The best hope to create a legitimate fair championship.

Even the mighty Big 10 can’t cause the public debate on the FBS postseason and Invitational even after their conference champ gets left out 2 years in a row, as UCF is causing.

We are doing it, my UCFriends. The road to Revolution won’t be easy. We have to remain steadfast. And can’t throw in the towel like the cows are doing.

 

[UCFBS]

Simple put ... we need a commish that highlights Houston, UCF and others only doing 1-for-1s now, saying,

"After a 3-1 NY bowl record, and plenty of wins over Top 10 teams -- more than a majority of P5 programs out there -- it's time this conference only schedules 1-for-1s, with rare exceptions."​

That's it. Instead, we got a commish that ignores Houston, is utterly ignorant of 1-for-1s that already exist, and says UCF is alone in mindset.

He just reversed course, and largely based out of ignorance. Fire him!

 

[muckdawg24]

Continually reaching and winning NY6 bowls philosophy versus uneven scheduling philosophy:

Which do you think gets us to the top faster?

 

[Gwoz]

Continually reaching and winning NY6 bowls philosophy versus uneven scheduling philosophy:

Which do you think gets us to the top faster?

NY6 bowls essentially requires a minimum of 11 wins, likely 12 and that won't even guarantee it. The current plan works for now, but if the team heads to Birmingham, Bad Boy Mowers, ect. for two to three years in a row its going to be very demoralizing for the team and fanbase. A lot are banking on NY6 bowls being the norm.

 

[Stormthecourt?]

NY6 bowls essentially requires a minimum of 11 wins, likely 12 and that won't even guarantee it. The current plan works for now, but if the team heads to Birmingham, Bad Boy Mowers, ect. for two to three years in a row its going to be very demoralizing for the team and fanbase. A lot are banking on NY6 bowls being the norm.

With four quality qbs this season, MM possibly next season, and DG for the three after that the fans should be expecting NY6 games every year