Sharp money coming in on Memphis

[muckdawg24]

Things in our Favor:

1. Memphis has lost 3 of their 4 games on the road.
2.They don't play well in adverse weather.
3. Defense has played well in two straight games.
4. We've owned them.

 

[SwagCentral]

What is sharp money anyway. Have you ever made a bet on anything in your life?

 

[Willie Knightime]

We've beaten Memphis 12 straight times correct?

 

[Knightlife_08]

What is sharp money anyway. Have you ever made a bet on anything in your life?

You know how many old drunks I've talked to at the horse track that have that "sharp money" that's gonna hit big on the next daily double, then the horse breaks his leg and gets shot on the track. Then the sharp money guy heads to the Jai Alai so he can make it all up on the west coast simulcast.

 

[mattropolis]

I'm going to start proclaiming each week that a team that has won 24 games in a row is going to lose. When it happens I am an expert.

 

[Knightlife_08]

I heard Mack is an overlay, his mother was a mudder.

 

[jestert79]

What is sharp money anyway. Have you ever made a bet on anything in your life?

I think it's kinda like sharp cheddar but I'm not clear how yet

 

[JAFFX2]

but it seems you haven't watched Memphis play before.

I have watched Memphis play UCF 12 times and guess what??? They lost all 12!!! Yes that would be 12 in a row, but you don't have enough little fingies to count that high

 

[atsKnight]

The nice thing is Mack got some good experience last week and the staff and put a game plan together that fits Mack's strengths.

Sucks having Vedral transfer now

Vedral leaving looks like a godsend right now. So glad we have Mack instead of Vedral's 27.1 QB rating.

 

[clmssun]

I am almost surprised Vegas hasn't pulled the line on this game. The movement of the line shows how difficult this game is to assess.

 

[Crazyhole]

The entire premise of the OP is faulty. Vegas only sets the original line based on a predicted outcome. Then it moves as money comes in so they can keep it 50-50 on each side of the line. All they want to get out of betting odds is the 10% juice.

 

[JAFFX2]

The entire premise of the OP is faulty. Vegas only sets the original line based on a predicted outcome. Then it moves as money comes in so they can keep it 50-50 on each side of the line. All they want to get out of betting odds is the 10% juice.

Absolutely

 

[MckenzieMilton10]

Put your money in Memphis. More money for me.

 

[ahabmw]

Everyone brings up the last two times we played, but we blew them out last year too. We weren’t using Greg in the backfield as much the last time we played and he’s explosive. I think Mack’s scoring drives will be longer than with Milton which gives our defense plenty of time to rest, and to square off on the Memphis offense. I believe in our boys as I’ve seen the fight they have and think there are only a few teams that can truly compete with us.

 

[Square Knight]

Lots of reasons to be positive.

- Mack is 2-0 this year with an average margin of victory of 27.5 points.
- Mack's passing game is not as bad as some people make it out to be. Three of his incompletions vs USF were on target and either dropped or barely tipped away. You can complain about two or three off target passes, but even KZ has had about the same number of off target passes in his games.
- Run game has improved tremendously the last four games.
- Defense has improved a lot over last several games.
- Even when defense gave up lots of yards, they often did not give up a lot of points, the only exception being Temple.
- UCF has played better at home than away.
- Memphis has generally played much worse away than at home.
- Over the last two years, UCF seems to have the "it" factor to do whatever is needed to get the win.

Conservative estimate is UCF wins by 10. I think we can win by 21+ if we have a good game.

 

[Knightlife_08]

Didn't Bortles get benched? Just have him wear long sleeves and black face, nobody will be able to tell the difference between him and Mack.

 

[Central Floridave]

I watched the Memphis-Houston game. Houston plays no defense. Memphis went all rushing attack in the 2nd half and just out tired Houston. That won't work against UCF. Especially with a home crowd and the emotions of losing Milton. Darriel Mack reminds me of Daunte Culpepper and will play pretty good in my opinion and is ready. Seniors last game at home. This game will be over at half time. Thanks for playing. 25 in a row. Next...

 

[Knight Strength]

Lots of reasons to be positive.

- Mack is 2-0 this year with an average margin of victory of 27.5 points.
- Mack's passing game is not as bad as some people make it out to be. Three of his incompletions vs USF were on target and either dropped or barely tipped away. You can complain about two or three off target passes, but even KZ has had about the same number of off target passes in his games.
- Run game has improved tremendously the last four games.
- Defense has improved a lot over last several games.
- Even when defense gave up lots of yards, they often did not give up a lot of points, the only exception being Temple.
- UCF has played better at home than away.
- Memphis has generally played much worse away than at home.
- Over the last two years, UCF seems to have the "it" factor to do whatever is needed to get the win.

Conservative estimate is UCF wins by 10. I think we can win by 21+ if we have a good game.

This confirms my bias. Thank you.

 

[KnightHammer]

I see you are a UCF alum

Yeah, and like the man said, go eat a bag of dicks.

 

[muckdawg24]

I had to google it but I found it, "It is considered to be sharp money when “a wager initiates a line change… regardless of the amount bet.” There are several respected bettors, particularly in Las Vegas, who can move betting lines all by themselves."

 

[Crazyhole]

I had to google it but I found it, "It is considered to be sharp money when “a wager initiates a line change… regardless of the amount bet.” There are several respected bettors, particularly in Las Vegas, who can move betting lines all by themselves."

That has to simply be because of the size of their bet. It isn't like some level of inside knowledge can predict the outcome of a college football game.

 

[Mikesi]

I don't think you know what trolling is.

You almost all start out meaning well, then you all become trolls in the end. So.., might as well label all of you what you are from the start. 90% of you are that anyway

 

[Stormthecourt?]

That has to simply be because of the size of their bet. It isn't like some level of inside knowledge can predict the outcome of a college football game.

No it’s not the size of the bet but more an indication of things to come. These sharps find things out first so when they put money on a spread the casino is basically taking a que from that bet.
Also these sharps aren’t betting $100 on a game. You make it seem like their bets could be really small or really large

 

[SECpolitician]

Message boards would be a lot less entertaining without trolls. I got hooked on UCF's board last bowl season after about 10 minutes. I just stopped in to see UCF's point of view on the playoffs....still hooked. Mikesi (very entertaining poster) may or may not have had something to do with that.

 

[Mikesi]

Mikesi (very entertaining poster) may or may not have had something to do with that.

Facetious bastard

 

[LemmyKilmister]

fellowship.

Also to see if everyone else is as delusional as Memphis fans are. Turns out, yes.

Fellowship my ass.

 

[LemmyKilmister]

Being scolded from a (presumably) grown man who writes "yawn" on message boards is all the punishment I need.

This troll is hereby ignored.

 

[knightraveler]

Seems those who make money in Vegas (line movers) are heavily on Memphis -3.5 so much so that they've moved the line 4 points in 24 hours. Smart people think Memphis will win as the straight-up win bet for Memphis is 88% of the action so far. So why does this board not only disagree, but with a very unproven QB and a sometimes questionable defense, think that UCF will win by 2+ TDs? Memphis has nothing to lose.

Fandom can be blinding. Not taking away from the 24 wins, which is incredible, but it's got to end sometime. I think that time is 100 hours away.

Totally classless trolling.

 

[SimpleJack53]

I respect your anti-gambling stance, but it seems you haven't watched Memphis play before. They cram it down your throat out of the spread. They've never run a jumbo package even at the goal line. I'm sure the rest of your conclusions are on point though.

What do you call the 2 tight ends and the lineman playing full back that they ran against Houston last week?

I call that the jumbo package

 

[GoKnights2003]

I don't think you know what trolling is.

Your obviously not a UCF alum. Yeah, your a cs MORON!

 

[knight_tracker]

I am almost surprised Vegas hasn't pulled the line on this game. The movement of the line shows how difficult this game is to assess.

For the betting population that watched the last game showed UCF had to come from behind to win. The Difference is UCF is better team then the last time they played. Has Memphis improved not sure ECU played them close.

 

[Boston.Knight]

"smart" money is actually dumb money in a contrarians book.

 

[clmssun]

Interesting...
https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/nfl-sharp-money-explained/

 

[GoKnights2003]

Totally classless trolling.

He gone!

 

[Mikesi]

Couldn’t take the anti-troll barrage

We are P5 on the internet. He’s a G5 Troll

 

[SwagCentral]

He went to get started on that bag of dicks.

 

[beelit47]

I watched the Memphis-Houston game. Houston plays no defense. Memphis went all rushing attack in the 2nd half and just out tired Houston. That won't work against UCF. Especially with a home crowd and the emotions of losing Milton. Darriel Mack reminds me of Daunte Culpepper and will play pretty good in my opinion and is ready. Seniors last game at home. This game will be over at half time. Thanks for playing. 25 in a row. Next...

Houston was a close game with a bad defense and then oliver mysteriously pulled his twat muscle. Ucf by 24

 

[Wings0fred]

I heard Mack is an overlay, his mother was a mudder.

His mother was a mudd’r!?

 

[lawknight]

He went to get started on that bag of dicks.

Here’s what Memphis fans should do:

 

[Drofleinad]

He gone!

I'm sorry, I was waiting for any of you to make a new or compelling point. I'll be back Saturday night, but I imagine none of you will be in the mood to talk.