The Idiots of the Reopen: Florida MAGA Trash Government Welcomes 10k New Covid Cases in 1 Day.
- Thread starter fried-chicken
- Start date
Kind of funny isn't it. They were welding people inside their homes to keep the domestic spread down, but were fine with letting it leave their borders and go all over the world.
Should be much cooler in your basement. Just make sure Biden isn't hanging out their too, could be a sniff grope moment.
It's still just based on a guess. I think you're probably correct and maybe even low, but we still don't know the R/0 of this virus, let alone the CFR. Its all just projections based on the numbers of deaths and then assuming one of the other variables.
So which one is preferable?:
Very infectious with a CFR lower than influenza
Or
Not very infectious but more deadly than influenza?
Speaking of which, my SIL is a pharmacist and they got notification on Friday that they already know this years flu vaccine missed the mark. Could make things interesting.
It’s a bounded guess. You can tell R0 with reasonable certainty based on the initial rate of spread. R0 doesn’t matter if you know IFR and deaths. IFR can be estimated based on early antibody studies.
I'm going to laugh when this is all over and it turns out Dr Ericson was right about everything.
https://thelogicofscience.com/2020/...dangerously-misled-the-public-on-coronavirus/
Hahahahahahahaha! Now the same people who called them quacks are coming to the same conclusions.
Hahahahahahahaha! Now the same people who called them quacks are coming to the same conclusions.
Yep people were saying that 4 months ago when we had 100 deaths and their shit first came out and was debunked. That ship sailed 140k deaths ago.
Look at what they said the IFR was. At that time we were told that its 3.4% and they were saying it was .5%. They were saying multitudes more people had it than were reported and now everybody is saying that.
Is there a point buried somewhere in all this IFR shit?
Do I really have to spell it out for you? This virus isn't as deadly as the panic porn would have you believe and Dr Erickson had it right. He was widely criticized and villianized so the guy deserves an apology.
Nobody ever said IFR was 3.4%. CFR was 3.4% early on. Nobody implied that was the IFR. Initial estimates were below 1%.
"Their entire argument rests on the notion that the mortality rate from COVID is actually very low, even less than 0.1% (roughly the typical mortality rate from the flu). Actual studies have found that the mortality rate varies from 3.6% (Baud et al. 2020) to 1.4% (Wu et al. 2020). I have yet to see an estimate based on confirmed cases that was anywhere near the number these emergency doctors came up with (see Note 3). So how did they get such a low number? Easy: they’re bad at statistics."
Essentially the same thing, especially at this point in time when we don't know the actual number of infections or cases.
Help me noodle this one out:
Looking at New York, their deaths are down to the point where it looks like they've reached herd immunity. Let's say we go with 50%, because that number seems to get thrown around as being in the probable range. That would put the IFR at .3%, correct? So if we extrapolate that out for the whole country, we would be looking at about 480,000 deaths by the time herd immunity is reached (160 million infections). Since we have about 30% of that number of deaths we could probably assume that there are/have been 48 million infections so far.
Obviously this is based on the assumption that herd immunity is 50% and that New York is close to that. The death toll in New York is probably much higher than what will be typical because of the number of elderly people there that were exposed to it so that .3% IFR is probably going to be somewhat lower, possibly as low as 200-250k total deaths if a high enough percentage of cases are among the young and healthy.
Tear that one apart if you'd like. I'm interested in your thoughts.
I just backed my way through the numbers a little bit using a 14 day incubation period and an R/0 of 2.0 and came up with 16 weeks to herd immunity if everything is left unimpeded. Thats about how long it took for New York to get there. Then I replaced the .03 with .004 because New York has a higher percentage of elderly deaths and if its predominately people under the age of 55 that get this we should reach herd immunity with something around 48000 additional deaths, or a 16 week average of 400/day. Obviously the numbers will be much higher in the beginning and much lower at the very end, but that does work out to the 800-1000 daily deaths we are seeing right now.Gets confusing to figure out especially with sky diving covid deaths.
Pretty crazy.
You misunderstand herd immunity. NYC has reached a point that with current safeguards and distancing measures they have lowered the spread. That is different from herd immunity. Estimates are that social distancing and other measures have artificially lowered the reproduction rate of the virus to around 1 or just above. At a R0 of 1.1 for example the virus would stop spreading after 9% infection. It’s hard to really estimate how much the measures in place have decreased R0 temporarily.
I get how herd immunity works. You have to get to below an R/0 of 1 for herd immunity. If you start with a disease that unencumbered has an R/0 of 2.5 then you need to have 60% immune for an R/0 of 1.
There are tons of articles saying that New York may be there so im not just taking their dropping numbers and assuming it. Most estimates have covids r/0 at between 2 and 2.1 so its pretty much 50% to reach herd immunity.
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Ny population 19.44 mil Covid positives 406.807 deaths 32,446
FL population 22 mil Covid positives 3272241 mil deaths 4805
Assuming 10x as many positives as reported.. probably is more in the 15 to 20% range.
NY has 407k who have had it, aprox 20% of population.
FL has 327k who have had it aprox 15% of population.
FL population 22 mil Covid positives 3272241 mil deaths 4805
Assuming 10x as many positives as reported.. probably is more in the 15 to 20% range.
NY has 407k who have had it, aprox 20% of population.
FL has 327k who have had it aprox 15% of population.
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Jesus Christ, the Chuds here STILL want to defend Florida even after the State began shattering the one-day State and national records on the pandemic.
Here's a stat for you: NY hit its peak back in EARLY APRIL for crying out loud!!! What's Florida's excuse??!?
Florida's surge to Number One occurred after its lamebrained Governor DeSantis sounded the 'all clear' bell and reopened the state.
Early we kept it under control other than SE fla and Tampa/Orlando. All of those are large tourist areas. We didn't ship covid9 patients back to nursing homes, which is the main reason for NY an NJ high death rates. We still don't send them back. In fact we have opened a # of covid only homes that can give more care than normal nursing homes, but less than full blown hospitals. So those who don't get real bad, and those well enough to get out of hospital have a place to go without putting others at risk. We still are not allowing visitors in nursing homes..Jesus Christ, the Chuds here STILL want to defend Florida even after the State began shattering the one-day State and national records on the pandemic.
Here's a stat for you: NY hit its peak back in EARLY APRIL for crying out loud!!! What's Florida's excuse??!?
Florida's surge to Number One occurred after its lamebrained Governor DeSantis sounded the 'all clear' bell and reopened the state.
No one rang the all clear bell, he opened up in 3 stages, with very tough restrictions on some businesses, and others being kept shut down.. Restaurants operating at only at 25%, not exactly the all clear, even now at 50%.
Bars, and the people who hung out there, ignored those rules and were shut back down, The state and local govts have been clamping down on many gyms as well. and Bars and night clubs are still shut down, not exactly the all clear you shoot your mouth off about... Even now Disney and larger theme parks which have been closed until the last week to 10 days, are running at 25%, with mask requirements for employees and visitors, no parades or other events that draw crowds together. . not exactly the all clear bell. Walk into stores here and you have 1 way isles, markers to keep people 6 ft apart in lines, extra shields up to protect workers from customers, limited entrances when busy, extra employees doing constant cleaning, doesn't sound like the all clear to me.
Heck even in my business where I can easily keep distance and am out side. I have taken precautions to allow more space from customers than normal.
I guess you and I have very different ideas of what the all clear looks like. For me this is not it.
Jesus Christ, the Chuds here STILL want to defend Florida even after the State began shattering the one-day State and national records on the pandemic.
Here's a stat for you: NY hit its peak back in EARLY APRIL for crying out loud!!! What's Florida's excuse??!?
Florida's surge to Number One occurred after its lamebrained Governor DeSantis sounded the 'all clear' bell and reopened the state.
So it isnt trumps fault.
Good info. Quelled any thought of a conspiracy. Asked about the details. Responded that it was a motorcycle accident. Asked if it was removed from the Covid count. Said he asked the state to remove but didn’t know if it was. Turns out it was. Good to keep an accurate count.
Dems know shut downs work Biden the serial sniffer has been locked in a basement where he can't grope and sniff young girls, and walah..... no virus.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200716-the-people-with-hidden-protection-from-covid-19
Its possible that a pretty good sized percentage of people have natural resistance to Covid.
Its possible that a pretty good sized percentage of people have natural resistance to Covid.
No one could have seen this coming. Who knew that reopening all businesses would result in exponential growth and thousands of deaths.
None of those problems are fixed. Schools are staying closed, unemployment is highest in years, I'm sure mental health is still down. Its just that now a bunch of people are also dead. Florida had the most deaths in the country yesterday. 1 out of every 3 people who died in Florida yesterday died of covid-19.
Since Florida refuses to dial anything back they are now projected to have 15,000 additional deaths by November.
Strange, because that doesn't seem to be happening in EVERY other country on the planet.
Tests are up 37%, cases are up 194%, it's more than just testing.
100% of the population wants to move forward. Most understand that to do that, we have to slow the virus spread by taking basic common sense measures. There is a vocal minority that thinks that things get back to normal just by shouting at clouds and willing it into existence.
Deaths are a lagging indicator. You are saying that we should wait until people start dying before we act?
The 7 day rolling average of deaths in Florida is up 141% over the past 2 weeks (44->106).
