This is important . Sort of.
- Thread starter Happy Hands
- Start date
Love it. This is exactly the hypocrisy that always exists. You gotta really let 6-7 games occur before picking apart people's schedules, and understanding if they really have played good teams or not, or if loses are considered good or bad (and I don't believe good losses trump no losses).
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No but they flip it back and say they were ranked when they played. And this is why the SEC will again get 2 or maybe 3 teams in the playoff. If Alabama's only loss is in the SEC championship you can bet they will be in, regardless. At least that would be a good thing because they didn't even play in it last year. And you cannot have the SEC Champion not going to the college football playoff, right?
Back to the 2 or 3 team possibility. There probably will be losses to some of the undefeated teams and another loss or so to Pac 12 and Big 12 teams. It would have to be somewhat of a perfect storm, but say Florida's only other loss is to Georgia, and LSU's only other loss is to Alabama, and Georgia wins out, but loses to Alabama in SEC title game. You'll be having 3 two loss SEC teams arguing they should be in, with probably all of those teams in the no worse in the top 12 by seasons end. It could happen. I sure hope not.
Back to the 2 or 3 team possibility. There probably will be losses to some of the undefeated teams and another loss or so to Pac 12 and Big 12 teams. It would have to be somewhat of a perfect storm, but say Florida's only other loss is to Georgia, and LSU's only other loss is to Alabama, and Georgia wins out, but loses to Alabama in SEC title game. You'll be having 3 two loss SEC teams arguing they should be in, with probably all of those teams in the no worse in the top 12 by seasons end. It could happen. I sure hope not.
the SEC might have the most on paper talent but they do everything to protect a perception and narrative. One less Conference game compared to the Pac12 for example. College Football in general needs an overhaul, so much corruption and inconsistency
It’s useless to even argue it anymor. They literally can’t lose...even after they actually lose.
Yeah, Florida struggles with Vandy-moves up three spots. UCF struggles with a much better Memphis in the damn rain-stays put. Argument: UF beat LSU.
Texas struggles with baylor. Moves up 2. Notre Dame struggles with Pitt. Moves up 1. Oklahoma struggles with the bye week and jumps us.
I know you’re being sarcastic, but at least you can see that there’s an inherent bias with saying that Memphis is a “solid” team and “much tougher” than another team. The team has 3 losses and has been rather unimpressive this season. They might be better than Vandy, but they certainly look to be in the same ballpark.
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Both ESPN's chitty, P5 snuggling FPI(Mem-49th Vandy 65th) and S&P+(Mem-27th Vandy-81st)
Then if an SEC team beats a team that end up in the top 10 that counts too. Can’t have it both way.
Vandy was leading UF that beat LSU that beat UGA. You're good at this game. But no, they aren't in the same ballpark. Memphis is a really really good offense with a bad defense. Vandy is just a bad team. Their efficiency levels are nowhere close. Memphis would be expected to beat an average team by 9.7 points whereas Vandy would be expected to lose by 2.7.
They can have it both ways and do, and will continue to have it both ways until more schools other than just UCF point out the hypocrisy of the current system.
Even if you use your numbers, then you’d have to say the performances of the teams were similar since UF won by 10 and UCF won by 1.
And I’m not sure how you can claim the teams aren’t similar and that Vandy is just a bad team whereas Memphis is solid. Vandy was driving for the win on the road against Notre Dame and played Florida tough. Their performance on the field this season seems quite in line with the performance of Memphis and they seem to have similar talent levels.
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Plenty of teams drive for the win late on Notre Dame. Vandy, Pittsburgh, something called Ball State. Transitive property doesn’t really work. Per Sagarin, S&P, FPI, pretty much every metric shows Memphis as the better team. This is a team that was top 25 and lost only 1 regular season game a year ago and has the nations leading rusher. They lost to run heavy option teams in Tulane and Navy that quite frankly can give any team fits. They had a 12 game home winning streak coming in.
Okay, so what are you expecting to see when Memphis plays Missouri next weekend...currently the 6th place team in the SEC East?
I expect them to handle their business like the entire conference has vs the P5 all season. Odds shark current prediction is a Memphis win 51-34. Sounds about right.
FWIW I think Missouri is a good team but has faced a tough schedule (already faced Bama and Georgia).
Vandy is 3-4 with wins over MTSU, Nevada and Tennessee State.
Memphis is 4-3 with wins over Mercer, Ga State, South Alabama, and UConn.
Gotta agree. Both teams are not good at this point. They are comparable at this point. Quality losses don't count. Potential doesn't matter. Future schedule doesn't matter. Thier records at this time is what matters.
You sure about that? I just went to that website and it showed that Missouri has a 76% probability of winning.
Yes I’m sure. https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/mem..._medium=referral&utm_campaign=game-index-page
What you are looking at is percentage of bets being placed on Missouri not a probability of winning.
No I’m telling you that is the definition spread consensus. That’s what it is. Not a probability of winning.
Memphis has been very efficient all year offensively. S&P has them 8th for offensive efficiency. Vandy is 78th. They aren't a good team.
Advanced stats are useful for predictions and give an interesting look at how good a team is. That 1 point 10 point thing gets skewed when teams are forced to play in a downpour. Whether that helped UCF or hurt them, I don't know.
If Missouri was ranked I’d put it at 50/50 since Memphis has done very well with ranked P5 opponents recently. As Missouri is nowhere near ranked, and haven’t beaten a team with a winning record since 2015, I say Memphis by 2 touchdowns. Not sure what that translates to in terms of a probability but hope it helps.
Yeah, they have a good offense but you failed to mention the fact that they have a bad defense. We’re talking about a team that gave up 35 points to South Alabama and lost 40-24 to Tulane.
Naw. I mentioned that they have a bad defense above(if the numbers to the aide are correct it's post 16). I'm not taking the losses away from them. I'm just pointing out what is available beyond an eye test. I'm not even knocking eye tests here. It's midway-ish in the season and a relatively small sample is available. Eye tests have some validity, they just can be more bias and paint an incomplete picture.
I'm not even saying UF is bad. I don't think they are. They are a top 15 team. Very good defensively and meh on offensive, but that's enough to compete in an SEC that is not back to its glory days. No worries champ, this will be a good year for UF compared to the last few.
![[cheers]](https://ct.yimg.com/mr/uploads/891/5628.gif "Cheers [cheers]")
Listen man, you will never satisfy a debate with an SEC elitist. They have every excuse covered, from it was early or late in the season, we just came off a big game, injuries, we weren't motivated. Doesn't matter. Best thing you can hope for is if UCF were to play Florida in a bowl game and UCF win, but yet again, see my above.
I know only the Auburns of the world get to determine who is or isn't motivated to win ball games, but if I may...that Memphis team really wanted that game. They NEEDED that game. Their program had lost 11 straight to UCF. They would have been the undefeated AAC 2017 champions in the Peach Bowl had it not been for UCF last year. UCF destroyed all their hopes and dreams, burned them down, and pissed on the ashes. Memphis now cycles off the UCF schedule for the next two seasons. This was that personnel groupings only shot at revenge and it was their Super Bowl.
I've discovered the type of logic they use to determine the Top 10 which is why we will always be judged as a witch that doesn't belong.
A real playoff system that invites D1 champions is the only solution! They can add a small number of playoff slots for their tomfoolery (12 or 16 total spots).
A real playoff system that invites D1 champions is the only solution! They can add a small number of playoff slots for their tomfoolery (12 or 16 total spots).
Really bizarre to see this rationale after most on this site are incredibly critical when other people try to use the same argument with our better opponents.
I agree it's not good logic but I don't think you'll see anyone say that UCF was unmotivated which is generally the P5 excuse. UCF was certainly motivated but Memphis had an extra chip on their shoulder. Thankfully our staff made the needed adjustments and our team doesn't melt during a monsoon.
Can we think of another team that lost more at the hands of one team in 2017 and then got that same team in their house in 2018 with a shot at revenge? I'm looking but can't find one. No one is saying UCF wasn't motivated for that game, but it absolutely meant the world to Memphis.
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