With 1 more win or Temple Loss, UCF would avoid ECU in 1st round (Standings & Tourn Bracket)

[Knight_Light]

Latest standings this AM (UCONN plays at Temple today)

SMU 14-1
Cinci 13-1
UH 9-5
UCONN 8-5
Memphis 8-6
UCF 8-7
Tulsa 6-8
Temple 5-9
ECU 4-10
Tulane 2-12 (just played their 2 best games of the year, took SMU down to the wire on the road and scored 94 pts in a 20 plus pt blowout vs usf yesterday)
usf 1-14

If UCF can't make the Top 5 for first round bye, best case scenario for UCF would be to avoid ECU in the first round...as their big Washington has dominated Tacko in both games that went down to the wire. (UCF probably won yesterday because ECU's best player, Barkley, was suspended for the first half).

Game 1:
Tacko: 0-6 from the field, 0-0 FT's, 0 pts, 7 rebounds

Game 2:
Tacko: 1-7, 3-6 FT's, 3 pts, 6 rebounds, 1 block, 6 turnovers
Washington: 5-5 from the field, 10 pts, 5 blocks, 0 turnovers (ECU just started to include Washington much more in their offensive game and its paid off)

NOTE: UCONN owns 1st tiebreaker with UCF do to season series sweep.

 

[firm_bizzle]

Why not hope to stay at 6? Play USF in the first round and then Houston in the second? That's an easier path than a first round bye, and then UConn in their building.

 

[Knight_Light]

Why not hope to stay at 6? Play USF in the first round and then Houston in the second? That's an easier path than a first round bye, and then UConn in their building.

You hope...(actually, you hope to get to #5 and get bye) but there are no gimmie's on UCF's schedule...especially on the road...as that was our first road win since Dec.

 

[Knight_Light]

With UCONN owning tiebreaker head-to-head with UCF...race for final bye spot will probably end up be between UCF and Memphis.

UCF has 3 games left while Memphis has 4:

UCF:
@ Temple
CINCI
@usf

Memphis:
@ Cinci
HOUSTON
TULANE
@ SMU

Would be great if Memphis could lose 3 out of those 4.

 

[mattropolis]

Why worry about any if this? If you're good enough you win...period. Hoping to play the worst competition doesn't help in any way. Whooppeee! We can beat USF or somebody else currently below us in the standings. Does that really impress anybody or help us get into any tournaments? No. Every game matters, every play matters, and that's what championship caliber teams do. All we need to do is worry about what we do.

 

[Knight_Light]

Why worry about any if this? If you're good enough you win...period. Hoping to play the worst competition doesn't help in any way. Whooppeee! We can beat USF or somebody else currently below us in the standings. Does that really impress anybody or help us get into any tournaments? No. Every game matters, every play matters, and that's what championship caliber teams do. All we need to do is worry about what we do.

That's what fans do...check out standings to see how it impacts the seeding of their tournaments. Thought I would just post the scenarios that will either most likely happen and/or 'best case' scenario of what could happen.

Sure...UCF can beat teams lower than us in the standings...but just like ECU (4-10) showed in their 2 games vs UCF...ECU took UCF down to the final seconds/shots in both games...as either could have ended up as a W for ECU.

There are zero gimmies left for UCF...including their next game at 5-9 Temple this week. (If UCONN beats Temple today, Temple will be 5-10 heading into that game).

Match-ups matter...as UCF matches up much better vs a "smaller" team like Tulsa than they do vs ECU (even though ECU has just 4 conf wins).

 

[UCFProf]

That's what fans do...check out standings to see how it impacts the seeding of their tournaments. Thought I would just post the scenarios that will either most likely happen and/or 'best case' scenario of what could happen.

Sure...UCF can beat teams lower than us in the standings...but just like ECU (4-10) showed in their 2 games vs UCF...ECU took UCF down to the final seconds/shots in both games...as either could have ended up as a W for ECU.

There are zero gimmies left for UCF...including their next game at 5-9 Temple this week. (If UCONN beats Temple today, Temple will be 5-10 heading into that game).

Match-ups matter...as UCF matches up much better vs a "smaller" team like Tulsa than they do vs ECU (even though ECU has just 4 conf wins).

And the fewer games that our conference rivals have will give time for Tank to heal up (hopefully), players to continue to grow under their coaching mentors, and to have intra-squad practice against next year's guys. The team seems to be peaking in the following ways:
Cutting down on turnovers, getting lots more steals, playing as a group, handling the press, and finishing games really strong (especially in each of the past 3 games).

 

[BlakNGoldAllDay]

That's what fans do...check out standings to see how it impacts the seeding of their tournaments. Thought I would just post the scenarios that will either most likely happen and/or 'best case' scenario of what could happen.

Sure...UCF can beat teams lower than us in the standings...but just like ECU (4-10) showed in their 2 games vs UCF...ECU took UCF down to the final seconds/shots in both games...as either could have ended up as a W for ECU.

There are zero gimmies left for UCF...including their next game at 5-9 Temple this week. (If UCONN beats Temple today, Temple will be 5-10 heading into that game).

Match-ups matter...as UCF matches up much better vs a "smaller" team like Tulsa than they do vs ECU (even though ECU has just 4 conf wins).

His point is if we can't beat the 10th seed in our conference first round we shouldn't worry about making the CBI let alone the NCAA. Best case scenario looks like the 6 seed though to me if you want to play the matchup game.

 

[Knight_Light]

And the fewer games that our conference rivals have will give time for Tank to heal up (hopefully), players to continue to grow under their coaching mentors, and to have intra-squad practice against next year's guys. The team seems to be peaking in the following ways:
Cutting down on turnovers, getting lots more steals, playing as a group, handling the press, and finishing games really strong (especially in each of the past 3 games).

Yeah...not sure how hard most of the starters can now go in practice...but one drill all could do is do a few quick sprints (get heart rate up), then attempt FT's...as UCF is struggling at the FT line...as too many times in practice, they generally take practice FT's at beginning or end of practice when your heart beat is basically at rest...which is not like in-game situations.

 

[Knight_Light]

His point is if we can't beat the 10th seed in our conference first round we shouldn't worry about making the CBI let alone the NCAA. Best case scenario looks like the 6 seed though to me if you want to play the matchup game.

Well my point was (same as most who have watched UCF play) is that UCF has such a small margin of error, hence why no game is a gimmie...yet I hope UCF wins them all.

If UCF can add some more W's, especially in conf tourn...it would be great if this team can get into a post-season tournament.

 

[UCFProf]

Well my point was (same as most who have watched UCF play) is that UCF has such a small margin of error, hence why no game is a gimmie...yet I hope UCF wins them all.

If UCF can add some more W's, especially in conf tourn...it would be great if this team can get into a post-season tournament.

I disagree. We beat Houston at home despite 20 turnovers, for example. At UMass, BJ had his worst game of the season, Matt was awful, and Tacko barely showed up. Tank, Chad, and Nick carried the team. As long at they are playing hard and focus on defense, they have a fairly decent margin for error. To get anywhere in the conference tourney and post season, you need to be able to find different ways to win and threaten to make an offensive run at any time. That's what they did in each of the past 3 games late in the second half (fell short against UConn, but had a chance). If they finish successfully, UCF will need some luck to pull out squeakers but also will get a 20 point win against a strong opponent.

 

[G-Knight]

Temple at home is currently leading UCONN 35 - 29 . Beating Temple at home is going to be a tall order, hopefully Tacko and co. come to play.

 

[Knight_Light]

UCONN neat Temple on a bucket in the last seconds, 64-63.

 

[Knight_Classes_begin_7pm]

UCONN neat Temple on a bucket in the last seconds, 64-63.

so what's the picture looking like KL? Update?

 

[BlakNGoldAllDay]

so what's the picture looking like KL? Update?

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/conferences/standings/_/id/62/american-conference

In 6th. Which isn't a bad spot.

 

[UCFProf]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/conferences/standings/_/id/62/american-conference
In 6th. Which isn't a bad spot.

And 1 1/2 back of 3rd. If we can somehow win at Temple Wednesday (they led with 3 second left over UConn) and beat USF the following week, 5th should be ours (at 10 wins).
Why? Because Houston, UConn and Memphis schedules are so impossible (playing SMU and Cincy) and they have to play each other, too:

• Houston, tied for 3rd at 9-5, plays UConn and at Cincy and Memphis (+ECU at home)
• UConn, tied for 3rd at 9-5, plays SMU and Cincy and at ECU and Houston
• Memphis, in 5th at 8-6, plays Houston and at Cincy and SMU (+Tulane)
• UCF, half game out of 5th at 8-7, plays Cincy at home this weekend and at Temple and USF

Houston could easily go 1-3 or even 0-4, but if they don't it means they hand a loss to UConn or Memphis or both!
UConn could go 1-3 or 0-4 (tough to win at ECU), but continuing its strong finish means Houston loses.
Memphis could also go 1-3, but 2-2 likely means beating Houston.
Of course, a dream scenario is UCF ambushes Cincy and winds up 11-7 and 20-10.
But we need to take care of business against tough Temple and improving USF on the road (or wind up 6th or even 7th).

 

[UCFhonors]

Good discussion.

I too want either a 3rd or 6th seed. Anything to avoid UConn in their place for the tourney.

We matchup great vs Houston. I like our chances vs Memphis too. Below us in standings we should beat them especially on a netiral site.

 

[UCFProf]

Good discussion.

I too want either a 3rd or 6th seed. Anything to avoid UConn in their place for the tourney.

We matchup great vs Houston. I like our chances vs Memphis too. Below us in standings we should beat them especially on a netiral site.

We don't play them if we are 3rd and they finish 5th, or if they are 3rd or slip to 6th no matter where we wind up
What I think will happen:

• UConn goes 3-1, beats Houston and ECU, and either SMU or Cincy. Finishes 3rd: 12-6
• Houston goes 2-2, losing at Memphis, at Cincy, and at home to UConn; beats ECU at home. Finishes 4th: 11-7
• UCF goes 2-1, loses to Cincy, beats Temple and USF, Finishes 5th: 10-8
• Memphis goes 1-3, loses to SMU and Cincy, beats Houston and Tulane, Finishes 6th: 9-9

 

[UCFhonors]

We don't play them if we are 3rd and they finish 5th, or if they are 3rd or slip to 6th no matter where we wind up
What I think will happen:

• UConn goes 3-1, beats Houston and ECU, and either SMU or Cincy. Finishes 3rd: 12-6
• Houston goes 2-2, losing at Memphis, at Cincy, and at home to UConn; beats ECU at home. Finishes 4th: 11-7
• UCF goes 2-1, loses to Cincy, beats Temple and USF, Finishes 5th: 10-8
• Memphis goes 1-3, loses to SMU and Cincy, beats Houston and Tulane, Finishes 6th: 9-9

Looks good to me!

It's great that we have bye week before the tourney. And finishing 5th is a symbolic win, - top half of the league, vs finishing 6th.

 

[Knight_Light]

Getting to 5th with a first round bye would be HUGE.

Quick look back at the first AAC tournament when UCF had to play on Day 1 (beat Tulane in 2OT), and the next just fell short vs #1 seed Cinci 61-58.

Tomorrow's game at Temple is now a must win and hopefully the Knights can do it.

 

[UCFProf]

Getting to 5th with a first round bye would be HUGE.

Quick look back at the first AAC tournament when UCF had to play on Day 1 (beat Tulane in 2OT), and the next just fell short vs #1 seed Cinci 61-58.

Tomorrow's game at Temple is now a must win and hopefully the Knights can do it.

Yes, placing in the top 5 means you still have a chance to get a NCAA auto invite. Making the top 5 would be an achievement on its own for Dawkins and the graduating seniors. It also would keep alive the chance for reaching the magical 20 wins. Finally, players know they likely can control their own fate: we always finish better with each no matter what any other team in the conference does (but there are also ways to "back in" as well).

 

[BlakNGoldAllDay]

Getting to 5th with a first round bye would be HUGE.

Quick look back at the first AAC tournament when UCF had to play on Day 1 (beat Tulane in 2OT), and the next just fell short vs #1 seed Cinci 61-58.

Tomorrow's game at Temple is now a must win and hopefully the Knights can do it.

If we had to play the 1 or 2 seed in second round we probably lose this year too.

 

[UCFProf]

If we had to play the 1 or 2 seed in second round we probably lose this year too.

But that "if." Back in the mid-90s, some of you may recall how we were second from the bottom seeded, but most of the best teams lost, early so we didn't have to play them. Went to the Big Dance with like a 11-15 record (including the conference tourney wins). I don't think anyone wants to play low-seed but dangerous Temple or ECU in this year's tourney, for example. Last year, after we lost to Tulane (despite leaks that their coach was going to be fired), Tulane went and upset Houston, too. It was a very Hoosier-esque story-line.

 

[Knight_Light]

If we had to play the 1 or 2 seed in second round we probably lose this year too.

SMU is very short handed but they really haven't faced any foul trouble this year...but if some of their key players did get into foul trouble (normally play with about 6 players each game), never know what might happen.

Same for Cinci's quick BIG...who seemed to have his way early with Tacko last game...if he gets into foul trouble...anything can happen.