Covid deaths pushing toward 5k per day.

[fried-chicken]

Sounds like the curve started to flatten this weekend. Hopefully we don't hit 2000 deaths per day by the end of the week.

Of course we have actually already dramatically flattened the curve. Original projections were 3-9 million dead with some up to 25 million. Projections now are as low as 60,000.

That's what we thought last weekend too but sadly it was reporting inconsistencies on Sundays and it's likely amplified from the holiday.

I think we'll see 2000 per day cap but that won't fall very fast as NY improves and other states gain. I would expect a slower decline due to rolling peaks but it's still way way better than before we were distancing.

 

[Crazyhole]

That's what we thought last weekend too but sadly it was reporting inconsistencies on Sundays and it's likely amplified from the holiday.

I think we'll see 2000 per day cap but that won't fall very fast as NY improves and other states gain. I would expect a slower decline due to rolling peaks but it's still way way better than before we were distancing.

We were social distancing before the death count was up to 100 for the most part. Restaurant traffic was down like 60% before the first stay at home order. NYC is likely going to be an outlier in this because of the subways, population density, etc. I doubt any city comes close to what their numbers end up being.

 

[fried-chicken]

We were social distancing before the death count was up to 100 for the most part. Restaurant traffic was down like 60% before the first stay at home order. NYC is likely going to be an outlier in this because of the subways, population density, etc. I doubt any city comes close to what their numbers end up being.

I agree that's why I say it stays at 2k. It wont be 1 city making up for NY but as NY drops 100 deaths per day you'll have 10 cities grow 10 deaths per day.

 

[fried-chicken]

So fauci was wrong. Not shocked. We are shutting down the entire Florida economy for 00.00008% of population infected. Makes perfect sense

You're confused.

It is because we have shut down the economy that we are seeing the encouraging results we are seeing. I used to come into contact with 50-100 people per day. Now I see maybe 6 or 7. And they're all the same 6 or 7 people.

The economy has been sacrificed to limit the death toll to 60k in the first wave. If we stop doing that then the second wave will be 10k as bad.

 

[Crazyhole]

I agree that's why I say it stays at 2k. It wont be 1 city making up for NY but as NY drops 100 deaths per day you'll have 10 cities grow 10 deaths per day.

Maybe. Its hard to say how environmental factors affect this virus. All I know is we need to get our shit in order as early as possible so we can prepare for the next round in the late fall.

 

[fried-chicken]

Maybe. Its hard to say how environmental factors affect this virus. All I know is we need to get our shit in order as early as possible so we can prepare for the next round in the late fall.

Just keep doing what we are doing and there won't be a next round.

 

[Crazyhole]

Just keep doing what we are doing and there won't be a next round.

You can't be serious. This will never go away. It'll likely end up being comparable to influenza and we'll have seasonal flare-ups every year. We need to put a lot of resources into determining what treatments are the most effective and upping our stockpile of those treatment methods. We can't just say "shut it down until there are zero new cases" because that's not going to happen.

 

[fried-chicken]

You can't be serious. This will never go away. It'll likely end up being comparable to influenza and we'll have seasonal flare-ups every year. We need to put a lot of resources into determining what treatments are the most effective and upping our stockpile of those treatment methods. We can't just say "shut it down until there are zero new cases" because that's not going to happen.

Yeah I can be serious and I am serious. We'll get a vaccine in early 2021 or we'll gain the ability for mass instant result testing. Until one of those 2 conditions are met I don't think we should go back to normal or some half assed version of normal

 

[firm_bizzle]

This will put the deaths into perspective.
https://public.flourish.studio/visu...weFdHBI5zqvqkkCxUhM9aMkqudgcj0ZT2lI8u90XU1Ei8

 

[Crazyhole]

This will put the deaths into perspective.
https://public.flourish.studio/visu...weFdHBI5zqvqkkCxUhM9aMkqudgcj0ZT2lI8u90XU1Ei8

Only one number isn't static. No, that isn't perspective

 

[Crazyhole]

Yeah I can be serious and I am serious. We'll get a vaccine in early 2021 or we'll gain the ability for mass instant result testing. Until one of those 2 conditions are met I don't think we should go back to normal or some half assed version of normal

Even if the states lift their bans, people will be practicing social distancing for quite a while. We need to use as much time as is possible to prepare for the next round. That means people working.

 

[fried-chicken]

Even if the states lift their bans, people will be practicing social distancing for quite a while. We need to use as much time as is possible to prepare for the next round. That means people working.

No new rounds. Any death over 60k isn't worth a couple months of bars being open.

 

[Ucfmikes]

I’m sure that this flattening the curve talk has a lot of people disappointed today

 

[Crazyhole]

No new rounds. Any death over 60k isn't worth a couple months of bars being open.

You're delusional if you think there won't be another round. The seasonal flu has been around for 102 years, we have multiple treatments and vaccines, and still lose 60,000 people a year to it. This won't going away and we need to be prepared so that the 2nd round isn't worse than the first.

 

[fried-chicken]

You're delusional if you think there won't be another round. The seasonal flu has been around for 102 years, we have multiple treatments and vaccines, and still lose 60,000 people a year to it. This won't going away and we need to be prepared so that the 2nd round isn't worse than the first.

And your way of preparing is to let people go to night clubs again?

 

[fried-chicken]

Phase in opening the economy with areas like clubs would be obviously last. The virus I don't see completely going away. Plus these viruses will continue to come out of China in the future.

Hopefully a vaccine will be available in mid 2021.

What business is currently closed down that you would want reopened?

 

[Crazyhole]

And your way of preparing is to let people go to night clubs again?

People won't be going to clubs for quite a while on their own accord.

 

[Crazyhole]

What business is currently closed down that you would want reopened?

Drive in church services would be a good place to start.

 

[fried-chicken]

I think movie theaters could open with appropriate seating distances built into their capacity but that's a dying industry anyway it may never recover.

Banks should keep doing what they are doing with closed lobbies. They retain almost all functionality. Same with fast food. Barbershop should open again at some point. Factories and production could take appropriate steps but most of them are allowed to be open now anyway and if they are closed it's because of decreased demand.

I honestly don't know what you "open the economy" people think is going to change.

 

[fried-chicken]

Drive in church services would be a good place to start.

Churches should get used to streaming. I watched my Easter service in the living room. It was fine.

 

[Crazyhole]

Churches should get used to streaming. I watched my Easter service in the living room. It was fine.

I think we are going to see a lot more of that on a permanent basis. Other than communion, I can watch the service at home at not miss anything.

 

[fried-chicken]

I think we are going to see a lot more of that on a permanent basis. Other than communion, I can watch the service at home at not miss anything.

I work with a church that did communion delivery on Easter.

 

[fried-chicken]

So back to the question. If we are expecting that consumer demand isn't a light switch thing, what exactly do you imagine will be changed when we "reopen?"

 

[fried-chicken]

Its a great big complicated interconnected global economy.

Reduced demand doesn't just hit one sector and it can't be fixed at a central location. It is fear that lives in consumers. The economy will slowly kick back up as elastic purchases are pushed back and eventually need to happen but the idea that we just "reopen" May 1st is about as low level of an economic analysis as I've ever seen and I shouldn't be surprised that the low IQ president thinks that's realistic. He's presenting it as an easy solution because he knows he has low IQ supporters that will eat it up.

There is no business that can be legally allowed to reopen that will change anything about where we are at. If you disagree please name me the industry that is going to reopen and save us from a second outbreak.

Since that move doesn't exist the best option (which still sucks) is to maintain our current path and innovate ways to keep life moving, like I like to work on my yard, I can't go to Lowe's, I'm glad to pay $100 to have my mulch pavers and chemicals delivered.

That's a reasonable solution right now. We need more like that and less people roaming Home Depot looking for a broom.

 

[Crazyhole]

So back to the question. If we are expecting that consumer demand isn't a light switch thing, what exactly do you imagine will be changed when we "reopen?"

We're going to have a lot of people stocking up on essentials for a while in preparation for the next round. At the earliest point as possible, we need to open up so that come this November when it comes back we don't have another panicked rush. We already have empty grocery stores and it takes time to replenish those goods. We will also have people thinking about what non-essentials they're going to want ahead of time. This is a culture changing type of event so we need to expande the timeline as much as is possible.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

The “reopening of the economy” is just rhetoric hoping for a stock market bump up. Trump didn’t personally do anything to “close” the economy as states acted independently to take various differing measures. As has already been pointed out, what do you think this “open economy” entails? What will be open that currently is not?

 

[Crazyhole]

Its a great big complicated interconnected global economy.

Reduced demand doesn't just hit one sector and it can't be fixed at a central location. It is fear that lives in consumers. The economy will slowly kick back up as elastic purchases are pushed back and eventually need to happen but the idea that we just "reopen" May 1st is about as low level of an economic analysis as I've ever seen and I shouldn't be surprised that the low IQ president thinks that's realistic. He's presenting it as an easy solution because he knows he has low IQ supporters that will eat it up.

There is no business that can be legally allowed to reopen that will change anything about where we are at. If you disagree please name me the industry that is going to reopen and save us from a second outbreak.

Since that move doesn't exist the best option (which still sucks) is to maintain our current path and innovate ways to keep life moving, like I like to work on my yard, I can't go to Lowe's, I'm glad to pay $100 to have my mulch pavers and chemicals delivered.

That's a reasonable solution right now. We need more like that and less people roaming Home Depot looking for a broom.

Thats probably the most pragmatic thing I've seen you write and it exposed your libertarian leaning. There is no function of government that can just "start it back up". It will take time for people to naturally relax enough to be comfortable going into a restaurant. Thats one of the criticisms of trump saying "we'll hopefully open it back up by........", that is just plain old TDS. Nothing he can do now will force people to put themselves at risk.

 

[fried-chicken]

Thats probably the most pragmatic thing I've seen you write and it exposed your libertarian leaning. There is no function of government that can just "start it back up". It will take time for people to naturally relax enough to be comfortable going into a restaurant. Thats one of the criticisms of trump saying "we'll hopefully open it back up by........) that is just plain old TDS. Nothing he can do now will force people to put themselves at risk.

Na, a libertarian thinks we should let them all die and that the market will take care of a solution. The truth is that diseases cant be handled with a libertarian mindset. We need to protect people from idiots who don't take this seriously. While restaurants and night clubs won't be profitable with reduced demand there still would be enough people there to cause serious harm.

The economy is as open as it's getting unless you can name a industry that should open back up.

 

[fried-chicken]

Tons... restaurants, daycare, schools, summer camps, golf courses, etc

Restaurants = open them up and they'll go out of business due to lower sales.

Daycare = yeah possibly, parents are desperate and have no options.

Schools = not happening too much spread.

Sumer camp = lol no this is not essential and wildly dangerous for spread.

Golf courses = sure this seems reasonable. Limited to a single foursome per group. They would probably still struggle due to lower demand.

None of these you listed are significant impact to the economy and 2 of them are already open in full or limited capacity as essential businesses. As a vocal proponent of "reopen the economy" I would have expected you to at least have a list of businesses that would actually help the economy what you listed will save a few businesses and allow banks to collect loan payments but that's about it. No one is making money on a 30% full restaurant. If that's your big idea to turn the country around then you can see why I'm not quick to push for decisions like that that will increase disease spread and cost lives.

 

[Cubs79]

Talking about me personally on what I want opened. For everyone and the economy, anything that can be opened that realistically can provide distancing as part of normal operations should be opened in May. If we don't we are going to have worse consequences vs under 50 year olds with a .4% chance of death.

If we open up too soon the consequences will even be worse. The reality is that this really isnt a winnable situation in the short term.

 

[Cubs79]

This can be lingering around for 16 months before a vaccine is ready. Not eating and everyone unemployed is definitely not a solution. I'd even be in favor of wearing masks in public just to reduce the spread temporarily.

Nobody is suggesting we quit eating, but this idea that everything will be better if we all just go back to our lives and spread the virus even more is just fantasy land. The economy is still going to be shit if a virus is spreading exponentially all over the country.

You should probably already be wearing a mask in public, but masks are basically like putting a band aid on a gunshot wound. They help some, but they arent going to cause the virus to go away.

 

[Cubs79]

Eventually you don't eat if you're not working. The United States can't have everyone not working without our currency going worthless. I'm not saying to go 100% back to prior, but have strict guidelines on stores to handle distancing and daily cleaning. This virus is not that fatal for healthy folks under 50 and distancing will continue to be a theme. Unfortunately these virus will continue to come out of China unless they change their habits.

Masks don't stop you from getting the virus for the homemade ones. Just stop a cough from going 25 feet and infecting others.

But lots of people are working. The entire country isnt currently unemployed or furloughed. And I am not saying that to dismiss that a lot of people arent working, because they obviously arent. But, we should also talk about this realistically. The entire country is not off work.

Many stores are already doing extra cleaning and distancing and things of that nature.

 

[fried-chicken]

I know this is hard to accept but sometimes there's not a path that leads to economic growth. Our goal should be to get past the virus in reasonable health as a nation.

You can't just ignore a virus like this and expect consumers to go out and spend. We are headed toward a difficult economic time no matter what we might as well save the lives that we can while we go through it.

 

[DaShuckster]

I know this is hard to accept but sometimes there's not a path that leads to economic growth. Our goal should be to get past the virus in reasonable health as a nation.

Well said and dead on.

We know now that our corona virus guidelines are indeed working. Let's not relax them prematurely under the faulty assumption that we're somehow able to kick-start the economy before the virus has run its course..

 

[Cubs79]

I know this is hard to accept but sometimes there's not a path that leads to economic growth. Our goal should be to get past the virus in reasonable health as a nation.

You can't just ignore a virus like this and expect consumers to go out and spend. We are headed toward a difficult economic time no matter what we might as well save the lives that we can while we go through it.

Exactly. The economy will be strong again when we have this virus under control to at least a certain extent. The people who want to rush it might have good intentions, but they arent going to do anyone any favors if we open things up to fast and cause even more outbreaks all over the place.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

Tons... restaurants, daycare, schools, summer camps, golf courses, etc

Daycares are open. Not sure what a summer camp is or if it’s applicable in April. Restaurants are open too just for carry out.

 

[fried-chicken]

Today will be a telling day for if we have peaked or not. Death totals lag a day and the weekend is typically under reported so today's numbers should be for Monday. Anything under 2000 should be looked at as a really positive sign for the country. Over 2000 and were still not there yet.

 

[KnighttimeJoe]

Today will be a telling day for if we have peaked or not. Death totals lag a day and the weekend is typically under reported so today's numbers should be for Monday. Anything under 2000 should be looked at as a really positive sign for the country. Over 2000 and were still not there yet.

You haven’t updated the death tolls since 4/7. How come?

 

[fried-chicken]

You haven’t updated the death tolls since 4/7. How come?

Been busy praising the Lord on this holiest of weekends. Got it updated for you though.

 

[KnighttimeJoe]

Been busy praising the Lord on this holiest of weekends. Got it updated for you though.

gracias. I appreciate it.