Does UCF Make It To A Tourney This Season?
- Thread starter G-Knight
- Start date
Hope so....but conf play will be a grind...especially with just 6-7 scholarship players...as UCF can't afford BJ to foul out like he did yesterday, or heaven forbid Tacko...or basically any other scholarship player.
As I noted prior to Charleston Tourn...UCF's weakness will be against the press...with very few ball handlers (BJ is good not great), and a tiny bench...UCF will either commit a lot of turnovers (like they did yesterday) and/or get tired.
AAC Teams with DEEP benches will probably press UCF a lot this season...but hopefully UCF won't have any more injuries and will stay out of foul trouble for the most part.
As I noted prior to Charleston Tourn...UCF's weakness will be against the press...with very few ball handlers (BJ is good not great), and a tiny bench...UCF will either commit a lot of turnovers (like they did yesterday) and/or get tired.
AAC Teams with DEEP benches will probably press UCF a lot this season...but hopefully UCF won't have any more injuries and will stay out of foul trouble for the most part.
Okay, sounds like it's time to put numbers to the 3 general scenarios --
I. Son of Donny: Finish OOC 9-3, 7-11 in the conference, lose 1st game in AAC tourney, 16-14, no cigar
II. Show Promise: Finish OOC 10-2, 9-9 in the conference, exit 2nd game of AAC tourney, 20-11, NIT invite
III. Real Deal: Finish OOC 11-1, 11-7 in the conference, win 2 in AAC tourney, 24-8, chance for ticket to big dance
Personally, I'd attach probabilities of 20%, 50%, and 30% to I, II, and III as of now.
Caveat: It's still unclear how good the 6-7 top teams in the AAC are going to be this year. Until now, UCF was simply out of their league. If that continues, it's scenario I. But indications are that this is a weaker year the AAC.
Another issue, of course, is the likelihood of nagging injuries.
I. Son of Donny: Finish OOC 9-3, 7-11 in the conference, lose 1st game in AAC tourney, 16-14, no cigar
II. Show Promise: Finish OOC 10-2, 9-9 in the conference, exit 2nd game of AAC tourney, 20-11, NIT invite
III. Real Deal: Finish OOC 11-1, 11-7 in the conference, win 2 in AAC tourney, 24-8, chance for ticket to big dance
Personally, I'd attach probabilities of 20%, 50%, and 30% to I, II, and III as of now.
Caveat: It's still unclear how good the 6-7 top teams in the AAC are going to be this year. Until now, UCF was simply out of their league. If that continues, it's scenario I. But indications are that this is a weaker year the AAC.
Another issue, of course, is the likelihood of nagging injuries.
That was sarcasm. I should be at the rest of our games sitting in my season seats and watching us play basketball again. I'm psyched to see us live!
True. What do you think the chances are of getting Ceasar DeJesus or Chance McSpadden back this year are?
Here we go again about depth. It does matter, but only when you have injuries. Check yesterday's UCLA vs. Kentucky game. Two elite unbeaten teams. You'd expect waves of subs streaming off the bench because of their depth, right?
Nope! Each team played 4 of its starter well over 30 minutes each. Each played only 8, with one of the three reserves hardly seeing the floor and didn't score. Most of the scoring was by 5 to six players (almost 95%). Only a few teams (like UMass) have 9 or 10 players see any significant playing time.
If we end up playing teams who full court press the whole game, and are as aggressive/wirey as umass, then there will be injuries to our guys...
With all the new coaches, not sure what their new defensive style will be or if their player personnel permits it. I'm thinking Memphis and SMU especially. Look how Dawkins has altered UCF's style of play (and Dawkins would be pressing more with a deeper bench).
KL: have you heard anything. Dawkins sounded so encouraging several weeks ago. Even said Chance was in a gym. We could really use another ball handler, 3-pt shooter, and driver to the basket. But I know how long those injuries can take to rehab. Even if it's not til the end of the month, Chance might benefit what with all the transfers coming in next year.
