Florida Governor Race

[NinjaKnight]

Your posts are more left than you admit yourself to be thats why.

Yeah, it probably comes off that way, but I'm much more of an actual conservative/libertarian and I've never voted for a single D bef. This pandering to the idiot alt right by Trump drives me crazy, and is an insult to what the actual GOP stands for.

 

[UCFKnight85]

I know y'all selectively like/dislike polls but almost every poll since mid-October shows Gillum having a larger and larger lead. I think independents will connect with him more over DeSantis.

Like I said, DeSantis is a horrible candidate. He looks lost, timid and appears to have no idea what he's doing.

Gillum will capture enough of the Bernie-bro independent crowd, will get African American voters to the polls and has hopefully generated ENOUGH young voter interest to pull it off.

I did see that voter turnout for young people is still timid at best. I hate my generation sometimes. JUST VOTE!

Has a poll come out post Kavanaugh debacle? It moved the meter in most other swing states for Republicans. Heitkamp went from tied to down 16 after that mess.

DeSantis may benefit purely from more center right people being energized to vote and going down ballot for him.

Pollsters get things wrong in FL- a lot. They had Crist spanning Rubio. They had Scott easily losing in 2010. And they now famously had HRC cruising to an easy win in FL in 2016

 

[UCFWayne]

@bqknight what you gonna do if desantis wins?

 

[bqknight]

Has a poll come out post Kavanaugh debacle? It moved the meter in most other swing states for Republicans. Heitkamp went from tied to down 16 after that mess.

DeSantis may benefit purely from more center right people being energized to vote and going down ballot for him.

Pollsters get things wrong in FL- a lot. They had Crist spanning Rubio. They had Scott easily losing in 2010. And they now famously had HRC cruising to an easy win in FL in 2016

Yup.

Since October 17th, the polls have been:
Gillum +1
Gillum +8
Gillum +10
Gillum +12
Gillum +6
DeSantis +3
Gillum +7
Gillum +1
Gillum +6

Don't get me wrong, I'm very skeptical of polls accuracy as well. 538 does do a good job of giving statistics for each poll as well and how accurate they have been.

SurveyUSA has had a 90% accuracy in getting races right and has Gillum +7. I think trends are more important here. Leading up to 2016, Trump was gaining in the polls towards the end and quickly. Gillum appears to be gaining strength towards the end here.

Guess we'll see....

 

[bqknight]

@bqknight what you gonna do if desantis wins?

I mean, I've lived nearly my whole life in a Republican controlled Florida, I'll survive. I live in a very blue city/county, so that makes up for some of it.

 

[Knight_Classes_begin_7pm]

Gillum.

DeSantis is a horrible candidate. He's not charismatic at all, has no real ideas (whether you like them or not) and I have a hard time seeing him wooing independents.

Desantis might be just as psycho or more, than FRUMP. Scary

 

[Knight_Classes_begin_7pm]

Why wouldn't it be serious?

Also I really can't bring myself to vote for what the GOP has become. This is a literal shitshow.

https://reason.com/blog/2018/10/23/...JtS6lO1A3S7LTU0zyI6TaCHVKVfXb1ItK0saPFjqp7Y_Q

Total Sh#t show!!!!

 

[UCFKnight85]

Desantis might be just as psycho or more, than FRUMP. Scary

It’s always great when two intelligent people are having a nice dialogue and then this guy chimes in with barely legible scribble.

It’s like a whiny 5 year old screaming and jumping into your conversation

 

[NinjaKnight]

It’s always great when two intelligent people are having a nice dialogue and then this guy chimes in with barely legible scribble.

It’s like a whiny 5 year old screaming and jumping into your conversation

More personal attacks from 85, in clear violation of the rules.

Of course the massive hypocrite @UCFWayne liked the post, just after whining about how FC and myself only exist to attack other posters.

wayne you are a pathetic disgusting hypocrite. Please try to comprehend that this isn't a personal attack, it's an accurate description of you as a human being.

 

[ucfversusbcs]

Yup.

Since October 17th, the polls have been:
Gillum +1
Gillum +8
Gillum +10
Gillum +12
Gillum +6
DeSantis +3
Gillum +7
Gillum +1
Gillum +6

Don't get me wrong, I'm very skeptical of polls accuracy as well. 538 does do a good job of giving statistics for each poll as well and how accurate they have been.

SurveyUSA has had a 90% accuracy in getting races right and has Gillum +7. I think trends are more important here. Leading up to 2016, Trump was gaining in the polls towards the end and quickly. Gillum appears to be gaining strength towards the end here.

Guess we'll see....

Curious when the Desantis +3 happened....

 

[Poolside Knight]

 

[UCFKnight85]

View embedded media

Well see. His average lead at RCP is 4.5 points with a 3 point margin of error.

 

[bqknight]

Curious when the Desantis +3 happened....

I did that chronologically. The poll that gave DeSantis had a C+ rating, has an average 1.1 point republican skew and has called 67% of races correctly.

The two polls that came out today were Gillum +6 and Gillum +4.

 

[UCFKnight85]

FWIW, I like a lot of what FiveThirtyEight does but they absolutely missed in 2016.

A week out, they had a HRC victory at 86%.

I’m not sold that any of these polling services really learned anything. They got abused in 2016. We will see!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ne...n-polls-october-31-trump-clinton-515320?amp=1

 

[bqknight]

FWIW, I like a lot of what FiveThirtyEight does but they absolutely missed in 2016.

A week out, they had a HRC victory at 86%.

I’m not sold that any of these polling services really learned anything. They got abused in 2016. We will see!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/presidential-election-polls-october-31-trump-clinton-515320?amp=1

They’ve changed how they position stuff now. It also wasn’t their fault, they just aggregate data, theyre not the ones polling.

I agree polls should be taken with a grain of salt. I do think pollsters will be able to figure out how to get it accurate enough again but they were obviously outdated in their methods.

That’s why I like their Pollster Ratings too. Can see how different services have done recently.

 

[Poolside Knight]

The RCP Average got Florida correct in 2016, it's the other States that it messed up on

 

[UCFKnight85]

The RCP Average got Florida correct in 2016, it's the other States that is messed up on

They had trump winning? Do you have a link to that? I watched the RCP averages a lot in 2016 and I don’t recall them ever showing Trump winning FL

 

[UCFKnight85]

Woa boy.

A former lobbyist close to Gillum released new records today showing that Gillum was knowingly taking bribes from undercover FBI officials, including a trip to NYC. These new texts and records directly refute what Gillum said in the debate just two days ago.

This is one of many pay-for-play kickbacks that Gillum was apparently happy to engage in

http://www.tampabay.com/florida-pol...ve-andrew-gillum-tickets-to-hamilton-in-2016/

 

[bqknight]

Woa boy.

A former lobbyist close to Gillum released new records today showing that Gillum was knowingly taking bribes from undercover FBI officials, including a trip to NYC. These new texts and records directly refute what Gillum said in the debate just two days ago.

This is one of many pay-for-play kickbacks that Gillum was apparently happy to engage in

http://www.tampabay.com/florida-pol...ve-andrew-gillum-tickets-to-hamilton-in-2016/

Meh. We’ll see if that gains enough traction to do anything. I didn’t vote for him in the primary due to fears of there being something there.

This info is not different than stuff that comes out about Trump. It’s spun in a way to sound bad but there isn’t actually too much substance.

 

[UCFKnight85]

Meh. We’ll see if that gains enough traction to do anything. I didn’t vote for him in the primary due to fears of there being something there.

This info is not different than stuff that comes out about Trump. It’s spun in a way to sound bad but there isn’t actually too much substance.

These texts pretty much prove that Gillum was agreeing to bribes from undercover FBI agents. Does such evidence exist about Trump on any matter?

I’m just noting this for the future. A lot of my leftie friends want Trump impeached simply because they don’t like him yet are voting for a Gillum with now actual evidence that he (allegedly) was part of the fraud ring being run in Tally.

 

[Poolside Knight]

Hamilton tickets are tough to get

 

[UCFKnight85]

Hamilton tickets are tough to get

Not for undercover FBI agents

 

[Poolside Knight]

 

[UCFKnight85]

And yes, when questioned about what is now true, he pulled the race card

 

[Husk in butt]

And yes, when questioned about what is now true, he pulled the race card

View embedded media

Shocking...another scam artist in government

 

[firm_bizzle]

Well see. His average lead at RCP is 4.5 points with a 3 point margin of error.

This has to be #fakenews! DeSantis is running a great campaign!

 

[Poolside Knight]

They had trump winning? Do you have a link to that? I watched the RCP averages a lot in 2016 and I don’t recall them ever showing Trump winning FL

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html

 

[firm_bizzle]

And yes, when questioned about what is now true, he pulled the race card

View embedded media

Word on the street is that he’s Muslim and not born in this country.

 

[UCFKnight85]

Word on the street is that he’s Muslim and not born in this country.

Meh. Very lame. 0/10

 

[UCFKnight85]

 

[firm_bizzle]

Woa boy.

A former lobbyist close to Gillum released new records today showing that Gillum was knowingly taking bribes from undercover FBI officials, including a trip to NYC. These new texts and records directly refute what Gillum said in the debate just two days ago.

This is one of many pay-for-play kickbacks that Gillum was apparently happy to engage in

http://www.tampabay.com/florida-pol...ve-andrew-gillum-tickets-to-hamilton-in-2016/

Fake news! Witch-hunt! No collusion!

 

[bqknight]

View embedded media

A $940 travel bill that may or may not have been paid.

That’s what they got?

 

[firm_bizzle]

A $940 travel bill that may or may not have been paid.

That’s what they got?

$940! Guilty!

 

[UCFKnight85]

A $940 travel bill that may or may not have been paid.

That’s what they got?

You do realize that we have anti bribery and corruption laws and $940 violates it in every way right? You don’t get to choose which dollar value does or doesn’t matter when a sitting mayor is accepting gifts that are illegal in every possible way.

 

[firm_bizzle]

You do realize that we have anti bribery and corruption laws and $940 violates it in every way right? You don’t get to choose which dollar value does or doesn’t matter when a sitting mayor is accepting gifts that are illegal in every possible way.

What was exchanged for the $940?

 

[goodknightfl]

I am looking forward to Gillum's huge tax on big business, to pay for teachers raises and health care, and then watching the big businesses run for states without such taxes. We don't need any big business here.

 

[btbones]

The one thing no one has discussed here is the hurricane In the panhandle . I would think that could have an effect on turnout up there. I realize it’s not millions of people but In a tight race could make a difference

 

[UCFWayne]

The one thing no one has discussed here is the hurricane In the panhandle . I would think that could have an effect on turnout up there. I realize it’s not millions of people but In a tight race could make a difference

it will definitely have an effect

 

[sk8knight]

It wasnt

What was exchanged for the $940?

Gillum was the subject of a federal undercover criminal investigation that presented Gillum with a common bribery opportunity and not only was he all-in but he couldn’t wait to take advantage of it. Sure, the amount is small but it always starts small. Everyone in government service or government contracting gets training on this. The case studies they present always start out small, show tickets or a birthday present for your kid. Then it escalates.

Everyone in here who has said that Trump should step down or be impeached for being in Putin’s pocket should be calling for Gillum to withdraw.

 

[firm_bizzle]

The one thing no one has discussed here is the hurricane In the panhandle . I would think that could have an effect on turnout up there. I realize it’s not millions of people but In a tight race could make a difference

Bingo. That is probably what gives Gillum/Nelson the win.