Let’s see where it ends up, the media has an aganda to push. We won’t know the truth until Election Day.
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Florida Governor Race
- Thread starter Poolside Knight
- Start date
Campuses having a Battle of the Ballots, UF in the lead so far
https://www.alligator.org/news/firs...b98be78cf6.amp.html?__twitter_impression=true
https://www.alligator.org/news/firs...b98be78cf6.amp.html?__twitter_impression=true
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It should be in low tax Dallas, right? This is simply a relic of the old Big East and lease agreements.
More than 2M votes already cast and Republicans hold a 3% lead in turnout. TB Times (a liberal paper) is casting a lot of doubt on any blue wave in FL given historical trends when R turnout is this high early
http://www.tampabay.com/florida-pol...2-million-votes-cast-gop-keeps-its-advantage/
http://www.tampabay.com/florida-pol...2-million-votes-cast-gop-keeps-its-advantage/
Independents will be key.
Also, I hate my age group sometimes, well probably the people a bit younger than me but still....just VOTE. I honestly don't even care who you vote for, I don't get how you don't exercise that right. It takes 2 seconds to do.
know 3 Registered Republicans that voted for Gillum yesterday, with the ever increasing Independents & NPA affiliation growing FL is harder to project. Just like Trump had some Registered Dems cross over in 2016
and apparently a lot easier than in Texas. The last few elections FL early voting has been easy & efficient
https://www.tallahassee.com/story/n...illum-fundraiser-documents-reveal/1773826002/
The dinner fundraiser for Gillum was hosted at Corey’s house and was described in one email as the "first kickoff event" for Gillum's gubernatorial campaign.
Those attending the dinner had to make a minimum donation of $5,000 person, but Corey arranged a special way for Miller, the undercover FBI agent, to donate to the fundraiser, allowing him to pay for "the cost of the meals and drinks."
"Attached is the invoice for the dinner you so graciously offered to sponsor," Corey thanked Miller in an email. "As mentioned it was a bit higher than I expected because of some last minute attendees so let me know what you would like to cover and I'll handle the rest."
The dinner fundraiser for Gillum was hosted at Corey’s house and was described in one email as the "first kickoff event" for Gillum's gubernatorial campaign.
Those attending the dinner had to make a minimum donation of $5,000 person, but Corey arranged a special way for Miller, the undercover FBI agent, to donate to the fundraiser, allowing him to pay for "the cost of the meals and drinks."
"Attached is the invoice for the dinner you so graciously offered to sponsor," Corey thanked Miller in an email. "As mentioned it was a bit higher than I expected because of some last minute attendees so let me know what you would like to cover and I'll handle the rest."
That does nothing to incriminate Gillum. The Hamilton tickets are much more meatier if you want to latch onto something.
True but it’s still just another piece of the puzzle here. Gillum said all along that he wasn’t a target in this inkvestigstion and yet now we know that the FBI had undercover agents interacting with him and offering him stuff.
He’s part of it
New CBS poll has Gillum lead down to 1 with margin of error of 3%
With DeSantis winning the Indy vote
Possible flux due to revelations of corruption and bribes taken from undercover FBI agents
With DeSantis winning the Indy vote
Possible flux due to revelations of corruption and bribes taken from undercover FBI agents
I was in Tallahassee this weekend, he is not very well like there. A comment from a friend was “ he may win the governors race but he wouldn’t win re-election for Mayor here.”
lol.
I'm sure that depends on what circle of people you typically associate with. I'm sure most of your friends hated Obama and like Trump, meanwhile, my friends think the exact opposite.
Most races, especially without an incumbent are closer to 50/50 than you think. A large portion of voters aren't going to like the person that gets elected.
ive seen a lot more gillium signs while driving around town and over to visit family on the coast. then again, i dont remember seeing a lot of trump signs before his election. i think this election will be very close.
http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2018/10/29/8-days-out-florida-memo.html
It finally cooled off in Florida, but the voting got hot. As of this morning: 2,726,392
This breaks down:
Republicans: 1,151,593 (42.3)
Democrats: 1,092,547 (40.1)
NPA/Minor: 482,252 (17.7)
Republican edge is 59,046 (+2.2%)
Yesterday, we were at 2,580,347, with the GOP holding an edge of 70,415 votes (+2.7%).
On Saturday, it was 2,316,413, with the GOP edge at 74,334 (+2.2)
Democrats made up all the ground they lost late last weekend, winning the weekend vote by roughly 15,500, or just under 4%. Most of that came yesterday, when Democrats won the day by 11K votes. My home team had a very good weekend.
Before my Democratic friends on twitter get too excited, there wasn’t much in the way of vote by vote by mail ballots, so unless the 118K or so more Democrats than Republicans who hold an absentee ballot #BringItToThePostOffice, the GOP lead will likely bounce back a bit tomorrow morning when the weekend absentees get added into the mix.
For comparison, in 2014, right at 2.2 million voters had voted, Republicans had about a 140,000-ballot lead at this point – and led by around 6.4%. In 2018, the GOP lead was about 9K votes at this point out of 4 million votes. It was basically tied.
Republicans lead for one reason, and one reason only: Democratic return rates for vote by mail are lagging Republican rates – by seven points in terms of the rate of return. Right now, statewide the return rate is about 49% -- though given what is currently sitting in the mailboxes at Supervisors offices, there is no question more than 50% of Floridians who requested a ballot have mailed it back. Again, those numbers update in the morning.
Republicans have now returned 54.4% of all their requested ballots, Democrats 47.6%, and NPA’s 42.5. Statewide, the return rate is 36%.
In total, just over 3.42 million ballots have been requested – again far more than 2014, and more than 2016.
Here is what is remaining:
Democratic unreturned ballots: 722,498
Republican unreturned ballots: 604,885
NPA unreturned ballots: 412,736
The electorate is continuing to trend more diverse. Not including Sunday’s data, which will make these numbers even more diverse, the electorate looks like this (again thru Saturday): 73% White, 10.5% Black, 11.7% Hispanic. Compare this to Thursday last week, when the electorate was 75% White, 11.5% Hispanic, and 8.5% Black, though as in-person early voting, the electorate is trending more diverse. Keep in mind, vote-by-mail in Florida tends to be far more white than the final electorate.
That being said, when looking at the ethnicity of who is left to vote, it is clear that Black turnout is rounding into shape – if just the people who voted in 2014 show up to vote between now and Election Day, the Black (reminder, Black voters in Florida include African American, Caribbean, and some Hispanic) vote will land at about 12.5%. And again, that is if no one new shows up. I suspect the Black share will end up right around the Black share of total voter registration, which is just over 13.
If there is a concern I have about turnout from my party perspective – where as the Black share of the electorate has been trending up, Hispanic has been pretty flat. Outside of Cuban Republicans, Hispanics tend to vote later, and more on Election Day, but this is something to watch this week and into next weekend.
Looking at the electorate that has voted, and the electorate left to vote, there is good news and bad news for my home team.
In terms of non-2014 votes, slightly more than 30% of the electorate did not vote in 2014. Those voters are younger (30% under 50 – and 17% under 35 compared to 22% under 50 and 8% under 35 for all early voters), more Democratic (Dems are +4%), and more diverse – particularly more Hispanic.
It finally cooled off in Florida, but the voting got hot. As of this morning: 2,726,392
This breaks down:
Republicans: 1,151,593 (42.3)
Democrats: 1,092,547 (40.1)
NPA/Minor: 482,252 (17.7)
Republican edge is 59,046 (+2.2%)
Yesterday, we were at 2,580,347, with the GOP holding an edge of 70,415 votes (+2.7%).
On Saturday, it was 2,316,413, with the GOP edge at 74,334 (+2.2)
Democrats made up all the ground they lost late last weekend, winning the weekend vote by roughly 15,500, or just under 4%. Most of that came yesterday, when Democrats won the day by 11K votes. My home team had a very good weekend.
Before my Democratic friends on twitter get too excited, there wasn’t much in the way of vote by vote by mail ballots, so unless the 118K or so more Democrats than Republicans who hold an absentee ballot #BringItToThePostOffice, the GOP lead will likely bounce back a bit tomorrow morning when the weekend absentees get added into the mix.
For comparison, in 2014, right at 2.2 million voters had voted, Republicans had about a 140,000-ballot lead at this point – and led by around 6.4%. In 2018, the GOP lead was about 9K votes at this point out of 4 million votes. It was basically tied.
Republicans lead for one reason, and one reason only: Democratic return rates for vote by mail are lagging Republican rates – by seven points in terms of the rate of return. Right now, statewide the return rate is about 49% -- though given what is currently sitting in the mailboxes at Supervisors offices, there is no question more than 50% of Floridians who requested a ballot have mailed it back. Again, those numbers update in the morning.
Republicans have now returned 54.4% of all their requested ballots, Democrats 47.6%, and NPA’s 42.5. Statewide, the return rate is 36%.
In total, just over 3.42 million ballots have been requested – again far more than 2014, and more than 2016.
Here is what is remaining:
Democratic unreturned ballots: 722,498
Republican unreturned ballots: 604,885
NPA unreturned ballots: 412,736
The electorate is continuing to trend more diverse. Not including Sunday’s data, which will make these numbers even more diverse, the electorate looks like this (again thru Saturday): 73% White, 10.5% Black, 11.7% Hispanic. Compare this to Thursday last week, when the electorate was 75% White, 11.5% Hispanic, and 8.5% Black, though as in-person early voting, the electorate is trending more diverse. Keep in mind, vote-by-mail in Florida tends to be far more white than the final electorate.
That being said, when looking at the ethnicity of who is left to vote, it is clear that Black turnout is rounding into shape – if just the people who voted in 2014 show up to vote between now and Election Day, the Black (reminder, Black voters in Florida include African American, Caribbean, and some Hispanic) vote will land at about 12.5%. And again, that is if no one new shows up. I suspect the Black share will end up right around the Black share of total voter registration, which is just over 13.
If there is a concern I have about turnout from my party perspective – where as the Black share of the electorate has been trending up, Hispanic has been pretty flat. Outside of Cuban Republicans, Hispanics tend to vote later, and more on Election Day, but this is something to watch this week and into next weekend.
Looking at the electorate that has voted, and the electorate left to vote, there is good news and bad news for my home team.
In terms of non-2014 votes, slightly more than 30% of the electorate did not vote in 2014. Those voters are younger (30% under 50 – and 17% under 35 compared to 22% under 50 and 8% under 35 for all early voters), more Democratic (Dems are +4%), and more diverse – particularly more Hispanic.
Except this person is a family member who is about as moderate as they come. He is not a Trump supporter.
I wonder how many people can articulate the 2 party platforms right now to define themselves as "in the middle."
I’ll say it again, both candidates suck. One is too far right, the other too far left. Given the options, I vote with my wallet.
I was registered NPA for 20 years until this election cycle, but changed to Democrat and just voted straight ticket for the first time. I still consider myself a moderate and wish Democrats had nominated a more centrist candidate like Graham, I just won't vote for a single Republican candidate with the party as it currently is.
No, like Hillary’s decades-long Vast right wing conspiracy to make excuses for all democrat failures and scandals.
Economic growth and a secure border is terrible!
But the tax cut was only for Trumps rich buddies!! Never mind the fact that I'm a far from rich public school teacher that is taking home more money to my family every two weeks. Down with more money!!
