I will take a stab at this...
K-State is the defending Big12 champs and will lead the league in all-time wins once Texas and Chokelahoma move to the SEC. Advantage K-State.
The winning percentage for first-year starting quarterbacks in their first conference road game is astronomically low, less than 30% for sure. Advantage K-State (The caveat is this will NOT be Q's first conference road game. He played at BYU as a freshman.)
That being said, I watched the entire K-State game against Missouri and the entire South Florida game at BYU. Missouri, for the most part, dominated K-State, but an injury to Missouri's starting quarterback kept the game closer than it was. Skill-wise, Q is very similar to Brady Cook in terms of arm strength and running ability. Cook gave K-State fits. Advantage UCF.
Against BYU on the road, Q played with poise and grace. He threw for a high percentage, made good decisions with the football, and quite frankly gave South Florida a chance to win. The Bulls defense, however, did not. Advantage UCF
The clincher for me is K-State returns its veteran right tackle in this game, Christian Duffie:
https://www.kstatesports.com/sports/football/roster/christian-duffie/11094 K-State made very few explosive plays, maybe one or two, against Missouri. With its offensive line shored up, K-State will be far more proficient in the run game and will produce quite a few more explosive plays. Advantage K-State.
I think K-State wins and covers, BUT Q is the X-factor. If Gus "turns him loose," let's him ad lib, and make plays with his natural ability, then I think UCF can score enough points to make it a one score ballgame. If not, I see K-State rushing for 200+ yards and pulling away late.