Recession, Stock Market tanking, and....?
- Thread starter KNIGHTTIME^
- Start date
Inflation up 8.5% year to year and 1% in May. No reason for things not to keep going down on markets.
Spx down to 3912, and will go further down. Bear markets are here, Recession (MAY) be here depending on #s for Apr-June quarter. Jan -Mar quarter already was negative. If we miss official recession now it is coming.
Spx down to 3912, and will go further down. Bear markets are here, Recession (MAY) be here depending on #s for Apr-June quarter. Jan -Mar quarter already was negative. If we miss official recession now it is coming.
This might be the catalyst to 3500 spx but I wouldn’t count on it. Still feel a high likelihood of a massive bear trap and we push to 4200 before the fall.
Except if believe this “real” inflation rate you would conclude that inflation has increased by 670% over the past 2 decades while aggregate annualized pay rates have increased by 100%. Which is illogical on its face.
You are right. 572% would be an approx 10% annualized rate over 20 years. Chart seems to indicate that is the average over the past 20 years. Unless I’m reading it wrong (purple line right?)
Math backwards? I’m not sure what that means.
From 2010 to 2020 wage growth in the US was 35% total.
Reading the “shadow stat” chart the inflations rates are claimed to be (based on a conservative eyeball of an image)
2011 - 8%
2012 - 12%
2013 - 9%
2014 - 9%
2015 - 7%
2016 - 8%
2017 - 10%
2018 - 10%
2019 - 10%
2020 - 10%
This exact sequence of inflation rates would indicate a 131% increase in cost of goods over that span while wage increases were roughly a quarter of that. Where is my math backwards?
I think I see how you're coming after this. Do the same thing for the FRED inflation numbers and you'll see why that wouldn't make sense either.
Assuming you mean the red line in the same chart I see
2011 - 3%
2012 - 4%
2013 - 3%
2014 - 3%
2015 - 0%
2016 - 1%
2017 - 3%
2018 - 4%
2019 - 3%
2020 - 0%
That sequence of rates would produce a 28% gain over the decade. Wages increased by 35% which means buying power would have outpaced inflation by 7% under that scenario. Since we have the 2020 rate of 0. If you assume a normal rate of inflation for 2020 we would have seen about a 32% increase due to inflation over the decade compared to the 35% wage increase for a 3% difference. As previously stated, the purple line rates would indicate a 131% increase over the decade due to inflation. Or inflation outpacing wage growth by 96%. Something doesn’t add up there. But as it’s just your standard tweet of a jpeg, there isn’t really much else to go on.
Which seems more likely: purchasing power has increased and we've actually experienced deflation over the last decade, or that it's been cut in half?
We haven’t experienced deflation. But there has been a small amount of real wage growth over the past decade. Though less than historically. No our purchasing power wasn’t cut in half over the past decade. That’s not reality.
It's probably closer to reality. CPI only takes into account some items and weights them. In the grand scheme of things, it's just a percentage of a person's spending and misses a lot of price increases. I can name dozens and dozens of things that have doubled in the last 10 years. I can't name many that have gotten cheaper.
Name one thing that has doubled in price since 2012. Literally anything to do with technology has decreased in price since then (comparable spec computers, televisions, etc.)
One dollar store had $1 prices for 35 years and increased to $1.25. How is that prices of everything up 131% over the past decade? No surprise who believes this though, nobeaverhusker1979
Inflation Has Eroded 40% of Social Security's Buying Power Since 2000: Study
Even the projected 8.6% COLA for 2023 won't be enough.
money.com
There's your buying power being cut over the last 20 years. Not too far off from half.
No it’s not. You are ridiculous. I don’t see why you have to die on the hill of the dumb chart tweet that you shared. It’s not based on reality.Inflation Has Eroded 40% of Social Security's Buying Power Since 2000: Study
Even the projected 8.6% COLA for 2023 won't be enough.
There's your buying power being cut over the last 20 years. Not too far off from half.
Inflation Has Eroded 40% of Social Security's Buying Power Since 2000: Study
Even the projected 8.6% COLA for 2023 won't be enough.
money.com
There's your buying power being cut over the last 20 years. Not too far off from half.
Lol. Your first interpretation was 670% increase. Then 572%. Then you got down to 96% which makes sense because in reality it is 48%, and I'm the one that is dying on a hill by basically verifying your final assessment?
I see what you did there. 😂😂😂😂
It’s Beavishusker1978 Goddammit!!!
By the way. Where did he go? 🧐
@Crazyhole is not based in reality. This is his fantasyland with make believe friends. He will respond to you like a lap dog to keep the conversation going. You may have to oblige to prevent the unthinkable
It's really cool to see a Newbie join the board and jump right into the fray! Damn, nearly 50 posts in a couple of weeks! You sure know how to make an entrance, BCHailMary!
What's more, you've done a great job of stepping into the HUGE VOID that was left here when KNIGHTTIME left us!!!! 👍
572% was over 20 years. 131% from 2010-2020 specifically and 35% wage growth over that span. Stop being a dolt.Inflation Has Eroded 40% of Social Security's Buying Power Since 2000: Study
Even the projected 8.6% COLA for 2023 won't be enough.
There's your buying power being cut over the last 20 years. Not too far off from half.
Lol. Your first interpretation was 670% increase. Then 572%. Then you got down to 96% which makes sense because in reality it is 48%, and I'm the one that is dying on a hill by basically verifying your final assessment?
Lol. Yes, your interpretation of the numbers that lead to 572% inflation is reasonable.
Either that, or you are not interpreting their data correctly.
I didn’t “interpret” anything. You posted the graph. I just used the rates indicated by the graph.
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