Looking at the current state of the in-state programs, we can project where UCF may fit in going forward and what their upside for opportunity is. The big 3 had a golden opportunity over the last 5 + years to carve out their spot as the premier program in the state and have squandered that. Based on last year’s season, FSU (10-3) is far and away the best team currently, while Miami (5-7) and UF (6-7) were questionable at best.
Miami has been especially underwhelming considering the recruiting success they had. Let’s take a look at the last 5 years recruiting rankings for each and their end of season ranking. They had a top 10 class for 2023, but that was in part due to Florida NIL legislation that hamstrung the public schools, their shady donor Ruiz funding a large portion of their war chest, and incompetence from their in-state competition. Now if Miami doesn’t have success immediately, they’re in big trouble. Ruiz may be running away from the SEC (not the conference) soon, UF has gotten their shit together finally and organized their NIL collective, and FSU’s recent success has improved their recruiting dramatically. While 2024’s recruiting rankings are still very early, this is already starting to show
Compounding this is revenue by conference. Let’s take a look at the ACC vs SEC vs Big 12 revenue. Now obviously this doesn’t account for NIL and donations, but there is such a large gap between the SEC and Big 12/ACC, Florida is always positioned for success by being in the premier conference. FSU and Miami, however, are in a much more precarious situation. As realignment looms, they need to position themselves as best as possible over the next couple of seasons. This means no more 5-7 seasons and they must take advantage of a weak ACC for conference title contention. FSU is considered the superior product and should be likely to be swooped up if realignment occurs. However Miami is not a slam dunk 538 Analysis. As we have seen, timing is everything and the teams that do get added are ones that increase value or are on par for existing members. Name recognition only goes so far when it doesn’t translate to on the field success, and resting on the laurels of glory days doesn’t resonate to kids who weren’t even born yet to witness a “dynasty.”
What does this mean for UCF?
The P5 schools will now have to also compete with UCF for recruiting and power within the state. UCF will likely suck for the next few seasons and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a losing season or two. Historically teams that have jumped from G5 to P5 experiences growing pains as their level of competition ramps up. BUT, with a much larger warchest of revenue and NIL, a greater TV and market presence, and name recognition of the Big 12 in recruiting, we’ll see the program steadily build and improve. UCF is in a prime position, considering the recent sub-par seasons of the big 3 and their positioning for a larger revenue grab. While we may not see the translation of these changes immediately to wins, over time UCF will be competing more and more directly with the other in-state programs. I don’t think anyone expects Gus Malzahn to lead the team to the playoffs, but what he can do is recruit at a high level and hopefully bring the program up to a level of stability for the next coach to build upon.
Miami has been especially underwhelming considering the recruiting success they had. Let’s take a look at the last 5 years recruiting rankings for each and their end of season ranking. They had a top 10 class for 2023, but that was in part due to Florida NIL legislation that hamstrung the public schools, their shady donor Ruiz funding a large portion of their war chest, and incompetence from their in-state competition. Now if Miami doesn’t have success immediately, they’re in big trouble. Ruiz may be running away from the SEC (not the conference) soon, UF has gotten their shit together finally and organized their NIL collective, and FSU’s recent success has improved their recruiting dramatically. While 2024’s recruiting rankings are still very early, this is already starting to show
| Miami Recruit | Miami Ranking | Florida Recruit | Florida Ranking | FSU Recruit | FSU Ranking | UCF Recruit | UCF Ranking | |
| 2018 | 8 | - | 14 | 7 | 11 | - | 62 | 11 |
| 2019 | 27 | - | 9 | 6 | 18 | - | 60 | 24 |
| 2020 | 17 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 22 | - | 75 | - |
| 2021 | 11 | - | 12 | - | 23 | - | 58 | - |
| 2022 | 16 | - | 18 | - | 20 | 11 | 52 | - |
| 2023 | 7 | TBD | 14 | TBD | 19 | TBD | 50 | TBD |
| 2024 | 26 | TBD | 12 | TBD | 7 | TBD | 45 | TBD |
Compounding this is revenue by conference. Let’s take a look at the ACC vs SEC vs Big 12 revenue. Now obviously this doesn’t account for NIL and donations, but there is such a large gap between the SEC and Big 12/ACC, Florida is always positioned for success by being in the premier conference. FSU and Miami, however, are in a much more precarious situation. As realignment looms, they need to position themselves as best as possible over the next couple of seasons. This means no more 5-7 seasons and they must take advantage of a weak ACC for conference title contention. FSU is considered the superior product and should be likely to be swooped up if realignment occurs. However Miami is not a slam dunk 538 Analysis. As we have seen, timing is everything and the teams that do get added are ones that increase value or are on par for existing members. Name recognition only goes so far when it doesn’t translate to on the field success, and resting on the laurels of glory days doesn’t resonate to kids who weren’t even born yet to witness a “dynasty.”
| SEC | Big 12 | ACC |
| $68M/year through 2034 | $31.67M/year through 2031 | $20M/year through 2036 |
What does this mean for UCF?
The P5 schools will now have to also compete with UCF for recruiting and power within the state. UCF will likely suck for the next few seasons and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a losing season or two. Historically teams that have jumped from G5 to P5 experiences growing pains as their level of competition ramps up. BUT, with a much larger warchest of revenue and NIL, a greater TV and market presence, and name recognition of the Big 12 in recruiting, we’ll see the program steadily build and improve. UCF is in a prime position, considering the recent sub-par seasons of the big 3 and their positioning for a larger revenue grab. While we may not see the translation of these changes immediately to wins, over time UCF will be competing more and more directly with the other in-state programs. I don’t think anyone expects Gus Malzahn to lead the team to the playoffs, but what he can do is recruit at a high level and hopefully bring the program up to a level of stability for the next coach to build upon.
