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UCF MBB RPI (and power rankings)

BlakNGoldAllDay said:
We need to stay at 6th in standings so we have a clearer path to AAC Championship game. If we move up we’d face Cincy before that game.
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I disagree here. 4th is going to be the best spot. 95% chance we would see cincy in the aac champ game anyway if we made it through the other side of the bracket. Anywhere above 4th would require us to win 4 games in 4 days to win the tournament, a near impossible task. Legs would be gone by the championship game for sure.
 
UCFlagship said:
I disagree here. 4th is going to be the best spot. 95% chance we would see cincy in the aac champ game anyway if we made it through the other side of the bracket. Anywhere above 4th would require us to win 4 games in 4 days to win the tournament, a near impossible task. Legs would be gone by the championship game for sure.
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Yes but the main goal is to make the AAC Championship and have a 1 game playoff and let chips fall where they may. I doubt we beat Cincy in game 2.
 
If UCF gets #4 seed they likely need to finish 5-1. That plus a tourney win over over maybe a 5 seed and loss to Cincy would probably put UCF at least on the bubble for an at large. 6th seed gets a first round against an RPI sucking ECU and really doesn’t improve the shot to win the conference tournament.
 
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Every game is winnable. I still like our chances at home against WSU but not as much. I'm rooting for Temple to look good before we beat them. Two more quality wins there.
Either SMU is bad or Cincy is really clicking after yesterday.
 
hemightbejeremy said:
If UCF gets #4 seed they likely need to finish 5-1. That plus a tourney win over over maybe a 5 seed and loss to Cincy would probably put UCF at least on the bubble for an at large. 6th seed gets a first round against an RPI sucking ECU and really doesn’t improve the shot to win the conference tournament.
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If we don't reach the AAC Champ game we won't be on the bubble.I only see 3 from AAC making it and a 4th if a team outside of 3 makes the Champ game.
 
BlakNGoldAllDay said:
If we don't reach the AAC Champ game we won't be on the bubble.I only see 3 from AAC making it and a 4th if a team outside of 3 makes the Champ game.
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Well we are on the bubble according to Palm now. Based on tourney predictor, 21 wins would put us on the bubble and 22 would put us squarely in the tournament. UCF can still achieve 21 regular season wins at this point and an RPI around 40 so your statement is far from an absolute. UCF plays 4 home games and 2 road games against Tulsa and a Temple team they beat by over 20 at home. I would say that no game is unwinnable at this point.

It's also about who you lose to in the conference tournament. If UCF doesn't make the championship game because they are a 4 seed and lose to a Cincinnati (who is likely a NCAA tournament #1 seed) in the semis, the committee will not penalize UCF.
 
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hemightbejeremy said:
Well we are on the bubble according to Dodd now. Based on tourney predictor, 21 wins would put us on the bubble and 22 would put us squarely in the tournament. UCF can still achieve 21 regular season wins at this point and an RPI around 40 so your statement is far from an absolute. UCF plays 4 home games and 2 road games against Tulsa and a Temple team they beat by over 20 at home. I would say that no game is unwinnable at this point.

It's also about who you lose to in the conference tournament. If UCF doesn't make the championship game because they are a 4 seed and lose to a Cincinnati (who is likely a NCAA tournament #1 seed) in the semis, the committee will not penalize UCF.
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There's probably about 50 teams on the bubble at this point. I would hate to be on the selection committee this year, not just for trying to pick 68 teams but for figuring out how to seed them all. There's probably only 2 teams who are clearly #1 seeds and then about 10 more who they could pick from for the other 2. A team like cincy could be anywhere from a 1 seed to a 4. North Carolina could be a 3 or a 7. What do you do with St Mary's and Gonzaga? Its just crazy this year.
 
hemightbejeremy said:
Well we are on the bubble according to Palm now. Based on tourney predictor, 21 wins would put us on the bubble and 22 would put us squarely in the tournament. UCF can still achieve 21 regular season wins at this point and an RPI around 40 so your statement is far from an absolute. UCF plays 4 home games and 2 road games against Tulsa and a Temple team they beat by over 20 at home. I would say that no game is unwinnable at this point.

It's also about who you lose to in the conference tournament. If UCF doesn't make the championship game because they are a 4 seed and lose to a Cincinnati (who is likely a NCAA tournament #1 seed) in the semis, the committee will not penalize UCF.
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Selection Committe has Cincy as a 2 seed right now. If they don't lose a game the rest of the way they proob get a 1 seed.But we only have an 8% chance of making the tournament. 7 % at large. Not great odds.https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournament/bracketology/detail/
 
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BlakNGoldAllDay said:
Selection Committe has Cincy as a 2 seed right now. If they don't lose a game the rest of the way they proob get a 1 seed.But we only have an 8% chance of making the tournament. 7 % at large. Not great odds.https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournament/bracketology/detail/
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Yeah. The odds are certainly small for an at large and the margin for error is shrinking. They only list a 1.6% chance of winning out in the regular season, so there is probably margin for 1 regular season loss only to get in without winning the conference tournament.
 
hemightbejeremy said:
Yeah. The odds are certainly small for an at large and the margin for error is shrinking. They only list a 1.6% chance of winning out in the regular season, so there is probably margin for 1 regular season loss only to get in without winning the conference tournament.
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UCF can only beat the seeds lower than 3 consistently in our conference.So 5-1 is doable. Anything less we lose At Large. I still think we need Autobid though.
 
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UCF will not be in the tourney without a conference tourney championship. Get ready for the NIT
 
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Ok update as of 3/3
http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_141_Men.html - UCF is 72nd. Game projections are correct if we beat Tulane.

Bad news is we have fallen in a tie for 6th in conference. That means playing USF or ECU in the first round is unlikely.
i still like our chances for the NIT considering we were a Final Four team and as others repeated have the same RPI. We should be inviited.
That said, beating Tulane after losing to #11 Wichita State in OT should make this team more confident going in, but Memphis at the top of the first round teams has the hot hand. Here's hoping they peaked too soon.
 
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ucfversusbcs said:
Ok update as of 3/3
http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_141_Men.html - UCF is 72nd. Game projections are correct if we beat Tulane.

Bad news is we have fallen in a tie for 6th in conference. That means playing USF or ECU in the first round is unlikely.
i still like our chances for the NIT considering we were a Final Four team and as others repeated have the same RPI. We should be inviited.
That said, beating Tulane after losing to #11 Wichita State in OT should make this team more confident going in, but Memphis at the top of the first round teams has the hot hand. Here's hoping they peaked too soon.
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5th plays USF and 6th plays ECU. UCF would get 6th with a win and a loss by either Memphis or Temple. Temple plays at Tulsa so that’s the best bet.
 
UCFhonors said:
And UCF already is predicting us meeting Houston in the 2nd round. Haha.

http://ucfknights.com/schedule.aspx?path=mbball
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Now that we know which bracket we are in....the game times for UCF (if UCF gets there) are known for Semi and Championship Game (both start at 3:30 pm)

AAC_Tournament_Bracket.png
 
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Knight_Light said:
Now that we know which bracket we are in....the game times for UCF (if UCF gets there) are known for Semi and Championship Game (both start at 3:30 pm)

AAC_Tournament_Bracket.png
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If there aren't any upsets we have the best path possible. Not in Cincys side and we face Houston instead of Wichita round 2. Maybe an upset or 2 before we play 3rd round or later.
 
BlakNGoldAllDay said:
If there aren't any upsets we have the best path possible. Not in Cincys side and we face Houston instead of Wichita round 2. Maybe an upset or 2 before we play 3rd round or later.
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True. And we played Cincy, Houston and Wichita close at home. Upsets are indeed possible. Let get out there and support this team.
 
BlakNGoldAllDay said:
If there aren't any upsets we have the best path possible. Not in Cincys side and we face Houston instead of Wichita round 2. Maybe an upset or 2 before we play 3rd round or later.
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As Gray goes with Houston...so goes Houston.

Wichita has a much deeper bench (6 players averaged at least 9 pts in conf play)...so hopefully UCF can either get Gray into foul trouble and/or he has an off night shooting.

NOTE: :Wichita shot just 27% from 3 pt land in their 19 blowout vs UCF in KS and shot just 28.6% in their OT win at UCF.
 
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Based on a couple of NIT bracketology sites, it appears UCF has no chance so doing well in the tournament isnt going to help. Thanks to a couple of regular season champs in lesser conference losing in their tournament like FGCU, we'll have to win to enter the dance.
Although NYC Buckets is projecting us #7 seed before last nights game against ECU.
 
ucfversusbcs said:
Based on a couple of NIT bracketology sites, it appears UCF has no chance so doing well in the tournament isnt going to help. Thanks to a couple of regular season champs in lesser conference losing in their tournament like FGCU, we'll have to win to enter the dance.
Although NYC Buckets is projecting us #7 seed before last nights game against ECU.
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I don’t know how we can’t get NIT if we win tonight. RPI of 100 or lower should get us in.
 
BlakNGoldAllDay said:
I don’t know how we can’t get NIT if we win tonight. RPI of 100 or lower should get us in.
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With a couple of the regular season champs in one bid conferences losing in their tournament, apparently the amount of at-large's shrink because the regular season champs get an auto invite to the NIT.
 
ucfversusbcs said:
With a couple of the regular season champs in one bid conferences losing in their tournament, apparently the amount of at-large's shrink because the regular season champs get an auto invite to the NIT.
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What’s our RPI? Let’s say 10 teams get in that shouldn’t in NCAA. That would mean RPI of 90 or lower should be a lock.
 
BlakNGoldAllDay said:
What’s our RPI? Let’s say 10 teams get in that shouldn’t in NCAA. That would mean RPI of 90 or lower should be a lock.
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We're 77 right now. Problem is spots are being taken by FGCU - regular season champs but losers in the tournament. If it was based on RPI, we beat them (theyre 173), but since the NIT rules state regular season champs have an auto invite, its going to make it more difficult for at large like us.

other regular season champs but losers in the tournament
Northern Kentucky Norse rpi 111 - horizon
Canisus - maac co champs, rpi 124
wagner - northeast, rpi 111

I think you get the picture. At large bids are shrinking.

EDIT - we're 74.
 
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ucfversusbcs said:
We're 77 right now. Problem is spots are being taken by FGCU - regular season champs but losers in the tournament. If it was based on RPI, we beat them (theyre 173), but since the NIT rules state regular season champs have an auto invite, its going to make it more difficult for at large like us.

other regular season champs but losers in the tournament
Northern Kentucky Norse rpi 111 - horizon
Canisus - maac co champs, rpi 124
wagner - northeast, rpi 111

I think you get the picture. At large bids are shrinking.
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That’s only 4 teams. I gave 10 as a cushion for top 90 get in.
 
BlakNGoldAllDay said:
Arkansas Pine Bluff is embarrassing. They didn’t win any ooc games.
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the idea of the CBI and CIT makes sense now. Its for higher ranked RPI teams locked out of the NIT because one bid regular season champs losing the tournament got the auto invite.
 
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