Using statistics to predict Big XII expansion

HailToPitt725

Four-Star Recruit
May 16, 2016
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I posted this thread on the national board earlier today using metrics such as average viewers per game, revenue per year, and and brand values to predict future realignment moves. Statistically speaking, the Big Ten would be justified in adding Oregon, Stanford, and Washington to get Notre Dame on board, while Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and Notre Dame would be the four best choices for the SEC should they want to match the B1G’s expansion.

Now, the Big XII is currently in talks about adding Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah. We’ll assume for a second that happens. What if the Big XII, now at 16 members, wanted to match the other two conference’s expansion and get to 20 as well? This would deliver a knockout blow to the ACC and leave three legitimate conferences remaining in college football.

They would be looking for schools that would exceed the conference’s current median television ratings, revenue figures, and overall brand values; after all, the point of expanding would be to create enough value that the Big XII could go to the open market and use its acquisitions to get a significantly larger rights deal. Those are:

- 0.90M tv viewers
- $42.8M revenue generated
- $146.8M brand value

Assuming the conference was looking exclusively at ACC members, here would be the best candidates going off each metrics (assuming Clemson, FSU, Miami, and UNC are off the board):

- Top four remaining ACC schools in TV ratings: Louisville (0.62M), Virginia (0.61M), Pitt (0.55M), and Wake Forest (0.53M)
- Top four remaining ACC schools in revenue generated: Virginia Tech ($50.3M), Louisville ($48.9M), NC State ($47.6M), Virginia ($43.4M)
- Top four remaining ACC schools in brand values: Virginia Tech ($278.3M), Georgia Tech ($215M), NC State ($179.3M), and Louisville ($175.8M)

One school was top four in three categories (Louisville) and three schools made the list twice (NC State, Virginia, Virginia Tech). Their median values would also exceed or come close to exceeding the new Big XII’s current values. Do UCF fans believe these four would be the best eastern expansion candidates for the Big XII? I could see the argument of dropping Virginia for Georgia Tech. Would love to hear any thoughts, suggestions, or critiques.
 

DaShuckster

Diamond Knight
Nov 30, 2003
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Statistically speaking, the Big Ten would be justified in adding Oregon, Stanford, and Washington to get Notre Dame on board
What???!? Logically speaking, the Big Ten doesn't need diddily-squat to attract Notre Dame. The B1G simply flashes the $100M greenbacks a year that the expanded conference will give each member school if ND joins them compared to the $15M the Irish earn from their NBC contract if they were to decide to remain independent. If you were the Powers-that-Be at Notre Dame, that would be a tough call to make, right? ;) :)

When the Irish announce they're coming aboard, the B1G may bring in another team with them. When that happens, my money's on the other school being Stanford.
 

PositYourself

Four-Star Recruit
Dec 28, 2021
446
434
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I posted this thread on the national board earlier today using metrics such as average viewers per game, revenue per year, and and brand values to predict future realignment moves. Statistically speaking, the Big Ten would be justified in adding Oregon, Stanford, and Washington to get Notre Dame on board, while Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and Notre Dame would be the four best choices for the SEC should they want to match the B1G’s expansion.

Now, the Big XII is currently in talks about adding Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah. We’ll assume for a second that happens. What if the Big XII, now at 16 members, wanted to match the other two conference’s expansion and get to 20 as well? This would deliver a knockout blow to the ACC and leave three legitimate conferences remaining in college football.

They would be looking for schools that would exceed the conference’s current median television ratings, revenue figures, and overall brand values; after all, the point of expanding would be to create enough value that the Big XII could go to the open market and use its acquisitions to get a significantly larger rights deal. Those are:

- 0.90M tv viewers
- $42.8M revenue generated
- $146.8M brand value

Assuming the conference was looking exclusively at ACC members, here would be the best candidates going off each metrics (assuming Clemson, FSU, Miami, and UNC are off the board):

- Top four remaining ACC schools in TV ratings: Louisville (0.62M), Virginia (0.61M), Pitt (0.55M), and Wake Forest (0.53M)
- Top four remaining ACC schools in revenue generated: Virginia Tech ($50.3M), Louisville ($48.9M), NC State ($47.6M), Virginia ($43.4M)
- Top four remaining ACC schools in brand values: Virginia Tech ($278.3M), Georgia Tech ($215M), NC State ($179.3M), and Louisville ($175.8M)

One school was top four in three categories (Louisville) and three schools made the list twice (NC State, Virginia, Virginia Tech). Their median values would also exceed or come close to exceeding the new Big XII’s current values. Do UCF fans believe these four would be the best eastern expansion candidates for the Big XII? I could see the argument of dropping Virginia for Georgia Tech. Would love to hear any thoughts, suggestions, or critiques.
365 Sports Talk brought on some crazy statistician with his crazy-ass slides and he lost me, as well as prolly most of the audience.
 

Dream Killer

Two-Star Recruit
Sep 29, 2021
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I personally thought the 4 would be Louisville, NC State, Pitt (basically for WV), and either Virginia or Virginia Tech. I just don't see the appeal of GT. I know the Atlanta market, but I just don't see them as committed to athletics. I almost see them on the same boat as everyone sees Cal.
 

knight_tracker

Silver Knight
Gold Member
Jan 28, 2005
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2,399
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I posted this thread on the national board earlier today using metrics such as average viewers per game, revenue per year, and and brand values to predict future realignment moves. Statistically speaking, the Big Ten would be justified in adding Oregon, Stanford, and Washington to get Notre Dame on board, while Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and Notre Dame would be the four best choices for the SEC should they want to match the B1G’s expansion.

Now, the Big XII is currently in talks about adding Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah. We’ll assume for a second that happens. What if the Big XII, now at 16 members, wanted to match the other two conference’s expansion and get to 20 as well? This would deliver a knockout blow to the ACC and leave three legitimate conferences remaining in college football.

They would be looking for schools that would exceed the conference’s current median television ratings, revenue figures, and overall brand values; after all, the point of expanding would be to create enough value that the Big XII could go to the open market and use its acquisitions to get a significantly larger rights deal. Those are:

- 0.90M tv viewers
- $42.8M revenue generated
- $146.8M brand value

Assuming the conference was looking exclusively at ACC members, here would be the best candidates going off each metrics (assuming Clemson, FSU, Miami, and UNC are off the board):

- Top four remaining ACC schools in TV ratings: Louisville (0.62M), Virginia (0.61M), Pitt (0.55M), and Wake Forest (0.53M)
- Top four remaining ACC schools in revenue generated: Virginia Tech ($50.3M), Louisville ($48.9M), NC State ($47.6M), Virginia ($43.4M)
- Top four remaining ACC schools in brand values: Virginia Tech ($278.3M), Georgia Tech ($215M), NC State ($179.3M), and Louisville ($175.8M)

One school was top four in three categories (Louisville) and three schools made the list twice (NC State, Virginia, Virginia Tech). Their median values would also exceed or come close to exceeding the new Big XII’s current values. Do UCF fans believe these four would be the best eastern expansion candidates for the Big XII? I could see the argument of dropping Virginia for Georgia Tech. Would love to hear any thoughts, suggestions, or critiques.
Good assessment resulting in a knockout blow for the ACC. What about Pitt? They are a better fit for the Big 10. I think the ACC is reviewing this possibly, and will try to make a move to strengthen their conference.
 

Shark19

Golden Knight
Sep 13, 2009
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I would be most interested in schools closest to us.

GT
Louisville
WF
Duke (are they available in this scenario?)

One of the things that is nagging me is looking at the B12 map with the 4 Pac12 adds, the center of gravity if you will has shifted further West and we look like an outlier, making us vulnerable to being cut if that happens.
 
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HailToPitt725

Four-Star Recruit
May 16, 2016
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Good assessment resulting in a knockout blow for the ACC. What about Pitt? They are a better fit for the Big 10. I think the ACC is reviewing this possibly, and will try to make a move to strengthen their conference.
I think we’re going to end up on the outside looking in. We won’t be getting a Big Ten invite; even if Penn State wouldn’t block us, we just don’t bring anything they don’t currently have. Our best shot would likely be the Big XII, but even then there’s better candidates in terms of revenue and tv ratings. We’re just not in a great position at the moment.
 
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mr. knightman

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Aug 10, 2021
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I would be most interested in schools closest to us.

GT
Louisville
WF
Duke (are they available in this scenario?)

One of the things that is nagging me is looking at the B12 map with the 4 Pac12 adds, the center of gravity if you will has shifted further West and we look like an outlier, making us vulnerable to being cut if that happens.
UCF is not getting cut being in a recruiting hotbed. Ink is dry also.
 

Shark19

Golden Knight
Sep 13, 2009
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UCF is not getting cut being in a recruiting hotbed. Ink is dry also.
As we know, there is a rumor floating around that there is a clause that can result in a contract cancellation if there was more conference movement before the 2022 season started. And we would be in the weakest position regardless of recruiting territory.
 

Shark19

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I feel bad for Pitt, as they are going through what we did a couple of times before. I’m sure the ACC will remain in some form, as they will be getting too much exit money to pack it in. They could add some teams with potential from the AAC (Memphis, SMU, East Carolina, Temple) and the Sunbelt (App St) that are good geographic fits.

Did everyone read the article about Miami looking into financing their estimated $100,000,000+ exit fee?
 

Knight59

Four-Star Recruit
Sep 3, 2016
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As we know, there is a rumor floating around that there is a clause that can result in a contract cancellation if there was more conference movement before the 2022 season started. And we would be in the weakest position regardless of recruiting territory.
Can anyone confirm that?
 

HailToPitt725

Four-Star Recruit
May 16, 2016
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I feel bad for Pitt, as they are going through what we did a couple of times before. I’m sure the ACC will remain in some form, as they will be getting too much exit money to pack it in. They could add some teams with potential from the AAC (Memphis, SMU, East Carolina, Temple) and the Sunbelt (App St) that are good geographic fits.

Did everyone read the article about Miami looking into financing their estimated $100,000,000+ exit fee?
If it ends up just being us, Boston College, and Syracuse remaining in the ACC, I hope we just invite the northeastern Big East schools and go all-in on basketball. No disrespect to those schools, but with the exception of Temple I’d have no interest in playing them.
 

beelit47

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If it ends up just being us, Boston College, and Syracuse remaining in the ACC, I hope we just invite the northeastern Big East schools and go all-in on basketball. No disrespect to those schools, but with the exception of Temple I’d have no interest in playing them.
Temple is an eye sore on gamedays. Almost as low attendance as usf.
 

HailToPitt725

Four-Star Recruit
May 16, 2016
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Temple is an eye sore on gamedays. Almost as low attendance as usf.
Trust me, we know. It’s been that way since they played at the Vet. But I’d still find the Owls more intriguing than any of the other G5 schools listed because they’re a northeast team. Maybe I’m holding onto an era that no longer exists, but I’d rather be in a conference with as many of our regional rivals as possible.
 
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Asphalt.Jungle

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Jul 23, 2006
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As we know, there is a rumor floating around that there is a clause that can result in a contract cancellation if there was more conference movement before the 2022 season started. And we would be in the weakest position regardless of recruiting territory.
no we don't know that. that was posted on twitter by some troll with 4 followers and then it gets repeated over and over and now it's a "as we know" situation.
 

beelit47

Silver Knight
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Trust me, we know. It’s been that way since they played at the Vet. But I’d still find the Owls more intriguing than any of the other G5 schools listed because they’re a northeast team. Maybe I’m holding onto an era that no longer exists, but I’d rather be in a conference with as many of our regional rivals as possible.
I can get behind that though if you wanted a better gameday partner ECU or even Navy would be better
 
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HailToPitt725

Four-Star Recruit
May 16, 2016
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I can get behind that though if you wanted a better gameday partner ECU or even Navy would be better
I’d love Navy, they’re one of our historic rivals. Army would be a nice opponent as well and they’re been performing better in recent years.
 

BlakNGoldAllDay

Diamond Knight
Dec 21, 2016
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I feel bad for Pitt, as they are going through what we did a couple of times before. I’m sure the ACC will remain in some form, as they will be getting too much exit money to pack it in. They could add some teams with potential from the AAC (Memphis, SMU, East Carolina, Temple) and the Sunbelt (App St) that are good geographic fits.

Did everyone read the article about Miami looking into financing their estimated $100,000,000+ exit fee?
Who would give them that loan? Has default written all over it.
 

barryforbes38

Three-Star Recruit
Gold Member
May 19, 2018
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What???!? Logically speaking, the Big Ten doesn't need diddily-squat to attract Notre Dame. The B1G simply flashes the $100M greenbacks a year that the expanded conference will give each member school if ND joins them compared to the $15M the Irish earn from their NBC contract if they were to decide to remain independent. If you were the Powers-that-Be at Notre Dame, that would be a tough call to make, right? ;) :)

When the Irish announce they're coming aboard, the B1G may bring in another team with them. When that happens, my money's on the other school being Stanford.
 

barryforbes38

Three-Star Recruit
Gold Member
May 19, 2018
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Why aren't the Big 10 and SEC pursuing Oregon more aggressively. Football history, good basketball program, great track program and oh yeah NIKE