Like most in Knight Nation, I have done much soul searching over the past few days. I can’t sleep, food doesn’t taste good. The joy I feel in my life has disappeared, only to be replaced with one all-consuming topic: Johnny Earl Dawkins Jr.

I’ve done extensive modeling - looking at his entire career, UCF’s history, broadly applied college basketball trends and even factoring climate change and I think I have come up with the perfect Goldilocks season for Coach Dawkins, our steady hand in trying times.

What is a Goldilocks season? It’s a Dawkins Doozy - a basketball season that is not too hot (heavens forbid!) and not too cold (UCF can’t afford a buyout!). A Goldilocks season is JUST RIGHT for Coach to get a multi million dollar contact extension putting him in line for the same financial stratosphere his big 12 peers enjoy.

Here’s my projection for next season:

Wins over Houston, Iowa State.

Losses to Kansas State, Arizona State and Cincy

Coach Dawkins works his formidable Rolodex and announces a program changing $250,000 gift

UCF continues to have nice things said about it in the national sports media thanks to our extensive Duke ties.

We place 11th in the New Big 12, an underwhelming (but improved!) campaign for a great coach. While fans have mixed emotions from this season, this team don’t quit. The big dogs start barkin and UCF makes a run to the semi finals of the Big 12 championship tournament.

Based on our deep run in the conference championship, we earn a play in spot to the NCAA tournament. However our swashbuckling basketball team inexplicably goes 2-22 from the free throw line resulting in a hard fought loss to black and gold rivals Colorado (a rematch from the first round of the conference championship).

Final record: 8-12 in conference.

Coach Dawkins’ 4 year, $3m/yr extension is announced March 13, 2025

Mikey Williams ultimately commits to USC, but his cousin Craig walks on. Antonio Brown enrolls in UCF to pursue a graduate degree in economics

The 2026 class ranking has been expanded from 100 players to a full Rivals250: https://n.rivals.com/prospect_rankings/rivals250/2026

Ten highest debuts: https://n.rivals.com/news/rivals-rankings-week-ten-highest-ranked-debuts-in-the-rivals250

Adam Gorney goes position-by-position: https://n.rivals.com/news/tuesdays-with-gorney-new-2026-rivals250-released

For the past few days, it seemed like a strong likelihood that UCF would host an NIT game.

As one of the "expected" top two Big 12 teams (in terms of NET ranking) not making the NCAA Tournament, UCF would be guaranteed not only an NIT autobid but a host site.

But Saturday saw several conference tournament upsets that has shrunk the bubble. Joe Lunardi called it "the most chaotic Selection Saturday in the 30-year history of Bracketology."

-NC State beat UNC in the ACC Championship.
-Oregon beat Colorado in the PAC Championship.
-New Mexico won the MWC Championship.
-FAU lost in the AAC Tournament.

NC State and Oregon would have been NIT teams. New Mexico was a fringe bubble team (maybe just in or just out, now they are in). AAC was going to be a one-bid league assuming FAU won the championship, but now an additional bid will go to Temple/UAB.

It had been assumed nine teams from the Big 12 would make the NCAAT. But with the bubble squeezing, a team like Oklahoma is now considered on that bubble fringe.

Lunardi (ESPN) has OU has his "last team in" but is wondering how accurate that will be (tweet below).

Jerry Palm (CBS) though actually has OU solidly in (not in the final four in).

It depends on how the Selection Committee. If OU gets a NCAAT bid, UCF should be a lock to host a game.

If OU is on the outside looking in, UCF is still believed to be an NIT at-large team but they may not host.

NIT bracketology projections as of this morning:

UCF hosting usf:


However, this projection has OU in the NIT which means UCF goes on the road to LSU:


Login to view embedded media

Grovel in front of the Dungeon and apologize to CJD.

I've noticed that a lot of the media is subtly changing their tune on the nBig 12. 8 months ago there seemed to be a a lot of "non-power" chatter.

I first noticed it with Bud Elliot this week. He was one of the bigger "big 12 is dead" proponents and he's now passionately defending the big 12 commissioner job, specifically stating he thinks the big 12 is the cutoff for a breakaway league (RIP South Florida).

I am pretty in tune with the national landscape for college football -- I'm going to keep my eyes on this but figured I'd share it in case any of ya'll see anything.

For the JD apologists, let me save you time by providing your excuses for yet another debacle at our inferior arch
rivals in Tampa:

1. Hard to win with our key players injured.
2. We were looking ahead to Houston
3. Team was exhausted after long bus ride from Orlando
4. Players were distracted by cute girl along the baseline
5. During timeouts Dawkins told team to keep feeding Tacko in the post

Login to view embedded media Login to view embedded media
New year, new season.

Although there's still a few hours left until 2020, the UCF men's basketball team is ready to turn the calendar so to speak with the beginning of American Athletic Conference play on New Year's Eve, hosting Temple at 2 p.m. The game will be televised by ESPNU.

Looking back on the non-conference record of 9-3, UCF head coach Johnny Dawkins saw plenty of positives especially when you consider this year's team is made up largely of newcomers.

"I like how we're trending defensively," Dawkins said. "I think we can still get better offensively. I think we have the personnel to do that. It's just a function of guys getting comfortable with one another. It's about chemistry and continuity when it comes down to it with nine new guys. As that starts to take form, I think you'll see an improved performance there."

Temple (8-3) has a similar record, though with a tougher schedule. Among the Owls' notable wins are USC, Texas A&M and Davidson. Both UCF and Temple have a shared loss, suffering setbacks to Miami. Temple also lost competitive games against Maryland and Missouri. UCF, which lacks a marquee win, saw two of their three losses decided by one point (Penn, Oklahoma).

"To be honest, we should be undefeated," junior forward Collin Smith said. "Those little minor mistakes and setbacks. It was UCF beating UCF."

Though it's still early to put a lot of stock in NET ratings, Temple is No. 42 (fourth among AAC teams) and UCF is No. 99 (eighth in the AAC).

Temple is under new leadership this season. Longtime head coach Fran Dunphy retired last season, making way for Aaron McKie, a Philadelphia native and star player for the Owls in the 1990s. McKie joined Dunphy's staff prior to the 2014-15 season and was named head coach in waiting prior to last season.

"They've tweaked what they do some, for sure," Dawkins said when asked about changes McKie has implemented. "There's a mixture of man. It's mostly man, but they will play some zone. Offensively they do some different things than they've done in years past with their personnel."

The Owls are led by a trio of talented guards: Quinton Rose (14.1 ppg), Nate Pierre-Louis (11.9) and Alani Moore II (10.5). Rose, a senior, was an All-AAC second team selection last season.

"Terrific player," Dawkins said of Quinton Rose. "He's had a really good career in the American conference. He's going to provide senior leadership for them. One of the best players in our league and in the country. He's long. He can make multiple plays. He's versatile. I have a lot of respect for who he is and a lot of respect for his game."

Temple could be the best team UCF will face defensively thus far. The Owls rank eighth nationally in field goal percentage defense (.362), 33rd in three-point defense (.282) and sixth nationally in defensive rebounds (30.55 rpg).

"They're one of the top defensive teams in the country," Dawkins said. "They'll be up there with anybody. They're holding teams to an incredible field goal percentage defense. Absolutely. It's going to be a heck of a challenge."

Collin Smith complimented Temple's guards. Pierre-Louis in third in the AAC in steals (2.1 pg).

"They have a really good backcourt with Nate and Quinton," Smith said. "They're going to be tough to deal with, especially on defense who how quick their hands are. Little pickpockets. Hopefully we come ready to play tomorrow."

==

With recent news that TCU transfer Yuat Alok is no longer with the program, UCF is left with just two true big men that have seen action: Collin Smith and Avery Diggs. A potential third would be Moses Bol, but Dawkins prefers to redshirt the inexperienced 7-foot-1 Sudan native.

"He has a lot of potential," Dawkins said. "I've been really pleased with his development. I think he's gotten better throughout this process. He's gotten bigger. He's probably gained 20 or 25 pounds. He's gotten better from a standpoint of the practices. He's competing against some very good big men. That's forcing him to improve his game on a daily basis. I'm excited for him. He's making an impact defensively. He's making it hard for guys like Avery and Collin defensively with his length. He's been a great addition to our team."

==

Collin Smith was upset about the loss at Oklahoma, but did appreciate the time off for Christmas.

"I hate to lose more than I like to win," Smith remarked. "I was kind of upset (about the OU loss) going back home, but as soon as I saw my mom, she makes me smile, so I felt a lot better. It was nice."

A big highlight of his break was his mom's home cooking.

"She made this mean banana cream pie with pineapples in it," Smith said. "It's amazing. I was looking forward to that. It was pretty good."

Login to view embedded media Login to view embedded media Login to view embedded media
Can UCF sweep South Florida for the fifth consecutive season?

For years, the Bulls enjoyed a considerable lead in the all-time series but that margin has rapidly dwindled (now 22-18) since UCF and USF became conference mates. The Knights have won nine straight games against the Bulls and will go for win No. 10 on Saturday in Tampa.

The teams met two weeks ago in Orlando with UCF rallying for a 55-54 victory.

"We know it's going to be very competitive," UCF head coach Johnny Dawkins said. "They have a terrific program. It's a rival game. We know it's going to be a hard-fought game no matter how it looks. "

Both UCF and USF are 2-6 in AAC play this season. The Bulls had lost five straight before getting back in the win column on Wednesday at Tulane. UCF has lost two games in a row (at Wichita State, Memphis) since defeating USF two weeks ago.

Here's more from Dawkins' interview:

On the progress of Dre Fuller Jr., who returned to minimal action vs. Memphis after missing the previous four games:

"He's getting there. He's getting his timing back, his rhythm and getting back in shape. When he missed that many games, all those games kind of play a factor. He's working his way back. I think every day it's a little bit better which is encouraging. The main thing is that he's healthy and he's able to get out there and compete. I know he's excited about that and so are we."

On doing well defensively yet struggling offensively:

"Our defense has been holding up for the most part all season long. We just have to do a better job of putting the ball in the basket. That takes time. Sometimes it's guys that don't know each other. They need to get a chemistry, continuity. That's what we're working towards. I love where our defense is for the most part, but the offense still has to keep coming. And it will."

On how much of an impact moving back the three-point line has had on long-range shooting:

"I don't know what the percentages are across the country, but I would gather that they're lower. I think that foot or so has made a difference in guys shooting it. I think it will go back in another year or two where they'll adjust and it'll be just like shooting at the previous line. I think right now in year one everyone is suffering from the fact percentages are down. I know looking at our league that percentages are down from years past."

On VCU transfer Sean Mobley, who is sitting out this season:

"Sean is doing fine. Sean is growing into the role. Right now he's practicing for us. Of course he can't play. He's learning our system. I think he brings a lot to the table for us. I like his leadership. I've seen that in him even though he's sitting out. I think he's going to be a terrific leader in our program. I love his work ethic. I love his versatility on the floor. He has a high skill level. He can pass it, he can shoot it. I'm excited about adding him to the roster next year."

On the players staying engaged despite recent setbacks:

"We realize that we still have a lot to play for. We have to keep taking it one game at a time and keep fighting our way to where we want to be. Those opportunities still exist for us. And our guys love to compete. that's the one thing about us. I think we always have opportunities in the games because we're gonna compete. The one thing you've got to have in any good team and our guys have exhibited that."

***

Collin Smith goes by the nickname "Pizzahead" (it's also his Twitter handle) so I asked about how that came about.

"I was like 11 years old and I needed an account for an online game," Smith said. "I was eating pizza at the time. Pizzahead was taken, so I added a 2 at the end. Pizzahead2. It's stuck with me."

He remains a big fan of pizza. His favorite variety?

"Meat Lovers with BBQ sauce and jalapenos," Smith said.

UCF loss to Iowa State had no impact on the NET rankings - it had been 66 and remains 66. Right now, that's No. 11 in the Big 12.

There are new NIT qualifier rules in place this year. Instead of an automatic bid going to regular season conference champions that did not win their tournament (and didn't make the NCAAs), instead the NIT will grant automatic qualifiers to the P6's top two NET teams that did not make the NCAAT. Those teams will also be guaranteed a home game (which should mean top 4 NIT seed).

The Big 12 is generally considered to be a nine-bid league, which right now would mean the top two teams outside the NCAAT would be Cincinnati and UCF.

The team on UCF's heels is Kansas State, which is currently seven spots behind UCF at 73.

Even if K-State surpasses UCF, there is still a chance to make the NIT as an at-large. Anyway, K-State's remaining regular season schedule is @Kansas and home to Iowa State. If they win any of those two games (and UCF loses out in the regular season), they would probably jump UCF.

But if UCF does get one of the automatic bids to the NIT, I think there's an excellent chance UCF would host South Florida, assuming usf does not win the AAC Tournament. That's the Bulls' only path to the NCAA Tournament. The NIT will arrange first-round seeds to minimize travel costs, which is why UCF ended up playing at Florida last year.

This NIT bracket site is already listing UCF/usf as a first-round matchup:

Appears to be business as usual.

Heading over for the week with the wife and five high school girls. Pray for me!

Anywhere that will have the game on tonight? ESPN+ gets weird.

Going to Garlic tomorrow or Thursday. Usually do Treehouse as well. Any other recommendations, I'm down to try something new.

Hoping a good crowd tonight. Bummed I am missing it.

GKCO! #bullspeedahead

I'm taking my daughter on a college tour in a couple of weeks and we'll be up there overnight. It's been several years since I've been, so I'm looking for restaurant recommendations. The only requirement is that it has to have a halfway decent cut of steak (that's her requirement).

TIA

Login to view embedded media
Randy Pittman was one of UCF's freshman stars of 2023, earning significant playing time at both tight end and special teams. Offensively, Pittman finished with 19 receptions for 215 yards and one touchdown.

Following the graduation of Alec Holler, Pittman is in position to earn a starting role. We caught up with him following a recent spring practice.

"Last season was amazing," Pittman said. "Just being a young guy that contributed to winning and helped developed people as a whole, being a guy willing to come in on special teams. It was big."

What was his favorite moment?

"When I think about my freshman year, I definitely think about the catch vs. Oklahoma," Pittman said. "That's one of my biggest plays to this day in any stadium. It was third-and-long to keep the game going. One of the biggest plays I've made in my life."

That was a 39-yard reception that helped set up UCF's final touchdown drive.



After a year in the program, Pittman says he has a lot more confidence now.

"I'm looking to improve on my blocking and also my leadership," Pittman said. "Being a young guy, I want to embrace a leadership role, just thinking about being here for the future. I want to build those characteristics now. I'm looking forward to being a leader."

He's been impressed by transfer quarterback KJ Jefferson.

"He brings a lot of versatility," Pittman said. "He's definitely a big guy, as you can tell. He can run and throw the ball well. He's really taking into a leadership role, making sure everyone is on the same page. Just being together as a whole and as a unit."

Who is standing out to him early on?

"Bredell Richardson, Kylan Fox and Chasen Johnson," Pittman said. "Those guys have been looking really good and moving well on the field. They're great guys off the field also."

As a fellow tight end, Pittman says he's trying to help Fox acclimate to college.

Pittman also has a new number this year, switching from No. 13 to No. 5.

"I was a single digit in high school," Pittman said. "13 was a freshman thing. I like the single digits so I switched."

Still some wait on some lower bowl season tickets waiting till 3 pm deadline to be released but still some lower bowl and lots of upper bowl options available prior to 3 pm release of even more seats.



3 pm update: Every section has a ton of tickets...so I'd suspect some bull fans will be in a lot of these sections now that the tickets have fully hit the open market:

$20 for all non-club seats...including primo sections 105, 106, 107, 117 (behind team bench)



PS. NIT didn't do UCF much of a favor by making this a 9 pm tipoff.

I love one section!
Login to view embedded media

Planned Spring Break maintenance in Garage F is going on this week while the kids are away on break so if you planned to come to the either event, I would suggest parking in E8 (Stadium North End Zone Lot: Free) or Garage D, H or C (pay to park)...or walking over from Stadium E-6 or Softball (free parking).

Baseball outfield lot (popular for some hoop fans) will probably be mostly full around 8 pm when most start arriving for the Hoop Game so have a plan BEFORE you arrive.

Take 2 of 3 from Oklahoma State​

UCF had a solid bounce-back week after being swept handily by the hands of the Sooners last weekend [who are now ranked 17th and 14th by D1 and Baseball America, respectively]. Two dominant wins, a thrilling finish, and a valiant comeback effort in a loss sums up week five for the Knights.

The bats got hot, the pitching rolled along (until Sunday’s contest, at any rate), and in the end, the Knights emerged with a winning week including capturing their first Big 12 win and series. For week 6, UCF will host a team they’ve played once before this year before heading out to Kansas for the weekend.

Click here for more from Michael Theed for the Sons of UCF.

Marc has hinted about a HUGE matchup coming to Orlando (hints made it seem it was soccer related) but on a bigger scale than even some previous match-ups.

Note: Yes...many stars skip these games but Americans will pay top $$ just to see ANYONE in their favorite jersey.

East has three of the four from last year's final four in the same bracket....UConn, sdsu and fau.

Take 2 of 3 from Oklahoma State​

UCF had a solid bounce-back week after being swept handily by the hands of the Sooners last weekend [who are now ranked 17th and 14th by D1 and Baseball America, respectively]. Two dominant wins, a thrilling finish, and a valiant comeback effort in a loss sums up week five for the Knights.

The bats got hot, the pitching rolled along (until Sunday’s contest, at any rate), and in the end, the Knights emerged with a winning week including capturing their first Big 12 win and series. For week 6, UCF will host a team they’ve played once before this year before heading out to Kansas for the weekend.

Click here for more from Michael Theed for the Sons of UCF.

I’m just a simple man whose eyes could be fooling him, but has anyone else noticed a lot of our football team looking bigger? RJ Harvey looks extra tank-like. Nikai Martinez looks bigger. Obviously adding a guy like KJ Jefferson makes you instantly bigger. What are y’all seeing?