How to Watch: ESPNU, 11:00 pm EST.
Location: Tempe, Arizona. Desert Financial Arena (capacity 14,198).
Backdrop: The Knights have one of the hardest schedules in the nation for the month of January. So far, they’ve done enough, especially if we consider the New Year’s Eve win over Texas Tech. Of the 5 remaining games (@ASU, Houston, @Iowa State, TCU, @Kansas), all classify as quad 1 matchups except TCU at home (quad 2).
The showdown in the desert on Tuesday night presents perhaps the most important for UCF in that even if the Knights drop their other 3 games against quad 1 opponents, winning on the road against a quality and fellow bubble team will keep them in the conversation for an at large tournament bid. In fact, it may catapult the Knights into a firmly “in” positioning for the short term.
State of Arizona State Coming In: ASU comes off of an emotional home loss to Baylor. After falling behind by double digits and as much as 14 in the second half, the Sun Devils raced back to within 2 points in the final seconds of regulation. Baylor missed a free throw which gave ASU the chance to push the ball up the court and hit a floater with just 1.4 seconds left on the game clock, forcing OT. The tank appeared spent, however, because Baylor held ASU scoreless for the first 3 or so minutes of overtime. Baylor put ASU's comeback to bed and won the game 72-66.
Will ASU be motivated to right the ship, or will the emotional letdown have a hangover effect? As a fellow bubble team, they will understand the importance of this game and come out swinging. While they have only gone 1-5 in quad 1 matchups, they are 2-0 in Q2, 3-0 in Q3, and 4-0 in Q4. We are actually a Q3 matchup for them (just barely at a 78 NET - a win would of course elevate us to Q2), so we might hope they overlook us similarly to how we seemingly overlooked Colorado.
Common Opponents: Speaking of Colorado, ASU also faced the Buffaloes at home and had a much easier time handling them than we did. We all know about how the Knights squeaked by. ASU beat Colorado by 20 (81-61) on Jan. 4. The respective shooting performances were somewhat reversed vs. Colorado:
- UCF shot 39%/35%/75% while Colorado shot 52%/54%/80% (still cannot believe we won w that discrepancy).
- ASU shot 52%/46%/63% while Colorado shot 34%/12%/80%.
ASU also handled Kansas much better than we did (who hasn't?), and in fact led them at the half, in Lawrence. Remarkably, Kansas held ASU to just 13 points over the entire second half before winning by 19.
Personnel: ASU has their own Thiam. Jayden Quaintance averages 9.1 points per game and 8.4 rpg. He has 44 blocks, good for 4th in the country (Thiam has 35). Still, Quantance is only 6'9", or so the roster info for ASU says.
UCF has the size advantage. You see the size difference between the freshmen mentioned above. While ASU does have a 7-footer, he gets only about 12 minutes a game and averages just 3 ppg. Other players to note:
- A key factor will be the health of Freshman Joson Sanon. A 6'5" freshman guard, prior to Saturday's game v Baylor, Sanon missed the previous 2 games with an ankle injury. He only got 18 minutes in a game that went to OT, when he usually gets around 30 in regulation when healthy. Is he still tender? He went 2-5 and had 0 rebounds v. Baylor. If he isn't at full go, it will be helpful to UCF's chances.
- ASU's best player is 6'9" forward Basheer Jihad, who averages 13 ppg, 6 rpg, and shoots 46.8% from the field and 37% from three. He seems to present a matchup problem for us, and Benny will need to cover him well when they are matched up.
- Then there is BJ Freeman, 6'6" senior averaging 12 ppg/4rpg/and 2.5 assists. He is streaky, though, making just 40% of his fg attempts. He shoots 30% from 3 but can get hot.
- Guard Alston Mason is a senior, 6'2", who averages 11.7 ppg, 2.6 rpg, and 3.5 apg. He is a good shooter - 44% fg% and 34% from three.
- Yet another senior, Adam Miller is 6'3" and averages 9.5/2.7/2.1. Phenomenal shooter - makes a mind boggling 44.5% of his three-point attempts and that percentage goes up when at home.
Matchup: If you couldn't tell from above, ASU is a good 3-point shooting team. When they struggle or lose, they are having off shooting nights (shot 37/20/80% v. BYU; 36/29/68 v. Baylor; and 45/27/58 v. St Mary's who they beat by just 4). Other notes/key questions:
- Down low: we have a size advantage with Thiam, so it is pivotal he stays out of foul trouble. The disruption he brings to slashers will be enormous for UCF. I think Williams may need to play more than usual to match the athleticism of guys like Jihad, as I don't believe Thiam will be able to guard him on the perimeter.
- Can Ivy-Curry be Effective? I don't love what I've seen from Ivy-Curry versus physically superior players. Johnny should not be scared to go to Mikey Williams early and often, especially if Ivy-Curry is running into the teeth of the D without any exit plan, as he did over and over versus Arizona. Ball moves well with Mikey and DJ Johnson plays well off the ball when he is in.
- Will Hall Shake Off His Recent Inefficiency? I think Hall will be able have some success as he is longer than most of the ASU players he would matchup against.
- Perimeter Defense and UCF Getting Buckets to Fall: Given ASU's ability to hit from beyond the dark, perimeter defense will be huge. Of course, we need to make more shots, but I have to think we are due for a good shooting day.
Prediction: UCF 79, ASU 75
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