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GAME 11: NAVY @ UCF, Sim Results and Predictions

11/17/2022 NAVY Edition:


Let's review Tulane...

NAILED IT.

Tulane final: 38-31

So, sim average result was 38-30, with Keene. The JRP sim average was 42-34, and both nailed the game spread within 1 with a score variance of exactly 3 for both teams.

Moving onto NAVY...

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NAVY Fun-Facts:

During Berlin's Allied occupation, a US Naval officer got Soviet guards drunk, and was able to steal the large swastika banner that had been the backdrop of many of Hitler's speeches. The banner now hangs in the Naval Academy museum.

The lowest ranking graduate from the Naval Academy is known as the "anchor" and receives a dollar from each of their classmates

At the United States Naval Academy, "General Tso's chicken" is served in the main mess hall, as "Admiral Tso's Chicken".

David Robinson grew so tall (7'0" by graduation) at the Naval Academy that he could not have served at sea, hurting any career in the US Navy. Instead of leaving the academy, as a compromise he was assigned to shore duty as an engineer before becoming a basketball superstar in the NBA.


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Players to watch for Tulane:

#1 Tai Lavatai - QB, 6'2", 221 pounds, JR. Running is the theme, Has a net 309 on the ground.

#45 Daba Fofana - FB, 5'8', 205 Pounds, SO. Net 685 yards running with average of 4.4 per carry.

#24 Maquel Haywood - SB, 5'8", 189 Pounds, SO. Net 415 yards with average of 6.3 per carry.

Overall:
Points per game
UCF 35.9 NAVY 22.9

Yards per game
UCF 497 NAVY 344.2

Opp points per game
UCF 20 NAVY 25.8

RECENT common-opponent score of note:

11/29:

NAVY 27
Temple 20


***Onto the REAL Beef*** (or absolutely nothing because you're not hungry)

Weather forecast at 11:00AM Eastern kickoff (WHY???)
Sunset: Doesn't f'ing matter.
Temp: Wear a damn Sweatshirt or something.
Chance of rain: 4% (Not 5%. No...4%)


TV: ESPN2


I ran 12 CPU simulations for a good math spread. I ran all 12 with clear weather. I used JRP at QB.


Average of 12 simulation results:

UCF 45
NAVY 19

Sim Avg Spread:
UCF -26 (Vegas: UCF -16.5 1:27PM 11/17/22)

"Heart" Prediction:

UCF 42
NAVY 20

"Heart" spread:

CENTRAL FLORIDA: -22 (Vegas be damned...)

My friend's son Julian's prediction:

UCF 42
NAVY 21

Julian's line of doom: UCF -21 (He's not old enough for Vegas, sorry)





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Cincy or Tulane?

Assuming we take care of business, the Cincy-Tulane game basically becomes a play in game to face us in the CCG in Orlando. Having played them both, who would you rather face in a rematch?

For me personally, I think it’s Tulane. I think it’s pretty clear we have a pretty significant athlete advantage over them, and I don’t think they’ll ever be able to stop our run game. Cincy has way better talent than Tulane but has QB issues. If Bryant plays a good game, they have good skill position talent that can be a problem. Cincy also has the “knows how to win games” factor going for them while it would be unfamiliar territory for Tulane.

Obviously need to take care of business first, and I think we can beat either, but curious what everyone else thinks

***Video: 2022 Senior Day Ceremony ⚔🏈

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UCF's seniors being honored prior to the final home game against Navy: Ryan O'Keefe, Koby Perry, Isaiah Bowser, Kemore Gamble, Divaad Wilson, Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste, Landon Woodson, Alex Ward, Trillion Coles, Andrew Osteen, Dionte Marks, Zach Rodriguez, Ryker Casey, Derek Burns, Chidoziri Maghiro, Ed Collins, Tylan Grable, John Brady, Ryan Swoboda, Sam Jackson, Alec Holler, Austin Camden, Anthony Montalvo, Tyler Paul and Daniel Obarski.

Gremlins in the sound system?

On top of our putrid performance on the field, the sound system today was extra awful, cutting out several times during songs. The two most egregious were during the Varsity Spirit routine, where the song stopped about 5 seconds into their performanc, and then during Thundersruck. There were a few other times too. Maybe we can hire some former Twitter software engineers to figure this shit out, it’s embarrassing.

I also have to give my performance of the day award to those Varsity Spirit girls, who despite losing the music, went right on with their routine for a wh8e like nothing happened, but then had to cut their performance short without the music. Such a shame our sound system sucks.

USF Game won’t be a Cakewalk

I’m not sure our offense can figure itself out each week. USF’s freshman QB went 21-25/240 & 3 TDs on the road in the freezing cold. Our D is better than Tulsa’s, but they’re gonna throw their whole playbook at UCF with no shits given, EA sports video game style. Their run D is bad, but that didn’t matter last year, either. I’m not as confident in that game, now. Not sure our fans show up as much now, either.
Snl GIF by Saturday Night Live

UCF players during both Alma Mater

Anyone else notice a lot of our players ran into the locker room before either Alma Mater was played? Why did they do that? I expect our players to be standing by Navy when their Alma Mater was played and standing by our fans (student section) while ours is played. Running into the locker room and avoiding it made me madder than losing the game. To me, that shows disrespect of the Navy players and our fans.

.

This season sucked at home.

Between only two real Saturday game times, the god awful performances against Louisville and Navy, pissing away all of our season on senior day, the concession lines that never seem to get more efficient, etc etc etc. God I wish they’d release the Big12 schedule so we can forget this season.

That and no more Plumlee please, let’s take our chances with TC next year.

Gus ain’t it?

I understand that I’m knee jerking very hard. But convince me after that offensive nonsense that Gus is the offensive guru we need. We do not have a QB. Neither one are good enough. Should Gus be able to scheme something together for either JRP or Keene to beat Navy? My gut tells me yes. We can say we don’t have a QB but I have to believe we have enough of a QB to scheme a win against navy? Also, two years in a MF’in row to Navy!?!? Ahhhh come on Gus!!!!

ARRRRGGGGHHHHHHH. BURN EVERYTHING DOWNNNNNNNNN *(kinda)
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