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College Football Playoff expansion on hold,

This is unbelievable. 4 more years of just 4 invitational teams. Can you imagine how G5 teams are taking this. USF

***UCF to the Big 12: It's happening 🚨🚨🚨

UCF is joining the Big 12, as early as next week.

I know that's not breaking news. We pretty much learned as much late Thursday morning when the Athletic broke the story about the plan to add UCF, Cincinnati, Houston and BYU, then Chuck Carlton of the Dallas Morning-News chimed in with confirmation. As the day unfolded, multiple Houston sources also stated as much and it was revealed Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby was actually visiting UH on Thursday. Brett McMurphy also had confirmation and further details in a story posted early Friday.

With the Boise State game obviously occupying everybody's attention Thursday afternoon/night and into Friday morning, I've just now had the chance to circle back to a few UCF sources to get a few more tidbits.

While everybody always seemed confident UCF would be included in such an expansion scenario, it does seem the acceleration of the Big 12's plan caught national media off guard. We knew the Big 12 had to do something, but I'm not sure people predicted invitations would come this quickly. There was a Big 12 presidents meeting the week before, and it seems they gave the green light to the ADs to move forward on the best plan available.

Accelerating this process, more than anything else, has been the revelation that the other Power Five conferences are not expanding - which means no landing spots for the Big 12 leftovers. The PAC-12 and Big Ten recently stated they explored the idea of adding teams, but didn't see value at this time. The SEC and ACC haven't made any public statements, but if there was no value for the PAC/B1G, there's no value for the SEC/ACC either. Things can change down the line, but there is a belief these moves will end Power Five expansion at least for a while.

I've heard UCF has been involved in informal discussions with the Big 12 for at least the past couple weeks, so Thursday's expansion plan wasn't exactly a surprise to the powers that be. They knew it was coming.

It's actually progressed further than reported. There has already been talk about entry date and revenue sharing.

Right now, the plan is for UCF to join in time for the 2023 season. The Texas/Oklahoma situation is fluid. Some believe they'd be gone by then, and others still believe the Big 12 would try to keep them in the league through 2024. It does appear there is confidence they'll remain in the Big 12 at least through 2022. Again, fluid.

As it currently stands, Big 12 schools make around $37M per year in revenue sharing, which includes the TV deal, playoff, bowl games, NCAA Tournament credits, etc. The Big 12 is set to get a windfall from UT/OU in terms of buyout money, but obviously how much remains TBD.

When UCF joins in 2023, they would play two full seasons under the existing Big 12 TV deal which is a shared ESPN/Fox contract. While this is still being negotiated, there is chatter the new additions would receive in the upper teens in revenue - perhaps $18-19M range - during that two-year span.

TV revenue beginning in 2025-26 would fall under a new media rights contract, which will begin negotiations in 2023. How much can a new Big 12 without Texas/OU generate and what media partners will step up to the plate to bid? That's really the biggest question mark here.

Internally, UCF is preparing for action next week. It is believed the official invites will happen either Tuesday or early Wednesday. The Big 12 presidents apparently have a conference call on Monday to authorize the plan. Schools are already planning for Wednesday press conference events.

The AAC schools have begun the process of taking necessary steps to declare their withdrawal, figure out what the buyout will be, etc. UConn declared exit from the AAC in summer 2019, which was to be effective for 2020, and they agreed to pay $17M to leave early. AAC bylaws require a 27-month notice and $10M exit fee. 27 months from now is December 2023, so unclear how that process will play out.

A few more tidbits:

-I'm not sure which politician(s) is involved, but it's been said there's at least one very upset member of the Florida state legislature who is livid University of South Florida is not part of this plan, and wants to demand UCF "lobby for their inclusion" or something to that effect. UCF obviously doesn't have any say in the matter. I don't see how Florida state politics could gain any relevant traction to impede this process.

-When UCF joins the Big 12 in 2023, I've heard they would likely maintain the nine-game conference schedule. UCF's 2023 schedule has plenty of work to do though as they only have the return trip to Boise State (Sept. 9) and a home game with BYU on the slate. Obviously, BYU now would be a conference game. So they'd need at least one more game, assuming there's always the possibility of a guarantee game (FCS, UConn, MAC type).

As a current independent, BYU joining a conference would create a lot of openings across college football, so UCF would have some options.

-It's too soon to know about the future of the War on I-4. South Florida has fairly full schedules for the next few years.

Cliff's:

-All signs point toward UCF being officially invited to the Big 12 next week. It appears like it will be official early in the week, Tuesday or Wednesday.
-UCF has known where this train was headed for at least the past couple weeks.
-The talk right now is joining for 2023 and it's at the point certain revenue numbers are being discussed.

***Updated: Alabama WR transfer Javon Baker commits to UCF***

It's possible we could see another transfer boom, this one from former Alabama WR Javon Baker. He had been committed to Kentucky previously. Not sure what happened, but Kentucky dropped him in recent days.

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UCF Fast & Slow - SC State Edition

Man I missed me some football. Kind of a crazy night, everyone seemed to assume lightning delays and nonsense would ensue but the weather for the actual game was pretty damn perfect for this time of year. Good dress rehearsal for the boys. Gonna help a lot going into Louisville. I am just getting home and i got to get on a plane first thing so lets get into it...

UCF Fast:

  • JRP: Man he is fun to watch play. He is really fast. I was hoping he won the starting job because he is dynamic on his feet. Keene i thought is serviceable at everything last year but wasn't really great at any one thing. He was young and i think he will be better this year but JRP can extend plays and extend drives with his legs and that such a game changer that we sorely missed with Keene. With the RBs, WR and OL we have i think the mobility of the QB is a big deal for this offense, makes us tough to defend. With that said you can tell JRP is raw with the pocket passing. He has a quick release and isn't afraid to stand in there but he has to get better pocket awareness and see the field better overall. I am sure we are going to see some growing pain INTs as the season goes on. That will work itself out in time but hard to be upset with what you saw tonight. Dude had like 5 TDs passing and running and ran for 100 and threw for 300, don't care who you are playing against that is solid. We will need Keene though especially if JRP keeps taking those hits. Scares me shitless every time.

  • Richardson: I know he didnt get a ton of touches but he is so electric every time he touches the ball. Another game averaging 10 yards a carry, nothing to see there. I think Gus needs to find a way to get him more touches and work him in the game plan more with Bowser. I get Bowser is doing the dirty work, softening them up but Richardson is too special to not get double digit touches. he really needs to touch it 15+ times rushing and passing. If not we are cheating ourselves.

  • Defense: D played really well, JJB you can tell is at another level this year. Barber is special inside. love the length in the secondary. Really solid game for the starters all the way through.
  • Health: Unless i missed it i didnt see any UCF guys banged up so looks like we got through the game in tact, no issues. That is huge for us moving forward. Last few seasons i have felt we had some key injuries in the early games that really impacted the bulk of the season.
UCF Slow:
  • SC State Punter: LOL, i have watched a lot of football and i do not think i have ever seen that play before. That punter had to be 10+ yards PAST the line of scrimmage when he punted that ball. It reminded me of a cheat code situation you could implore in Flag Football Intramurals at UCF. If you were at the end of the game, down by one score, with no time left and it wasn't 4th down and you needed to score a TD you could run a play and send a guy real deep and another guy over the middle. You would throw to the guy over the middle and if that guy wasn't going to score that player could throw the ball from wherever he was on the field to the deep guy in the end zone and if the guy caught it for a TD the game couldn't end and you would get another play because the defense would have to accept the penalty for the illegal forward pass because if the defense declined the penalty the TD would stand and the game cannot end on an accepted penalty.
  • UCF Kicking Game: Our kickoffs were solid, all were basically touch backs from Ryker but for Obarski to get one shot and miss a makeable kick and for Osteen to take 7 years to punt that ball and get it blocked are both crap plays. We need both these guys to play at a high level to make a deep run this year. I railed on both of them for these exact issues last year and it was disheartening to see them pop up in game 1

  • Offensive Line: I will be interested to see the PFF when it comes out. I really thought going into this game the O-Line was going to dominate a team like SC State. I thought we would push them around and run at will. I thought Bowser would have had avg more then 3.4 yrds a carry. We just didn't seem as overwhelming as i expected we would be against that level of competition.
  • Keeping Players in Late in the Game: I know i always say this but in games like this when we are up by 5+ TDs in the 4th quarter None of the starters should be in the game. JRP, Bowser, the whole crew were playing in the 4th when we were up 42-10. I get JRP needs all the reps he can get but i feel like with how he plays it is tempting fate a bit to leave him out there. I still feel the worst ever situation was Heupel with Bam when we were up like 56-0 and his knee was shredded. I know the guys want to play but we got to be smart.
Sorry for the quick write up this week. I will work myself back into mid season form soon enough. It is tough judging players in games against this level of competition. Next week i am sure i will have a lot more to say. Go Knights!!!

OT: $3 Movie Tickets All Day tomorrow only at Regal, AMC & others

It's National Cinema Day on Saturday, Sept 3rd.

Many national chains are selling $3 tickets to every movie in every format.

Observations At Tonight’s Game

Things I noticed at the Stadium tonight:

1. Plumlee is a significant upgrade at QB. His speed and running ability allows him to extend plays
and his passing is better than expected. Defenses will have to game plan for this guy.

2. Our O-Line was average against an FCS team, will have to be much better in the run game next week
vs Louisville. Pass protection was solid.

3. Special teams was bad. Three different holding calls on returns cost us field position and nullified an
electric TD return by Townsend. We also had a punt blocked along with the obligatory missed field
goal by Obarskie. Our kicking game is going to cost us a game if we don’t get it fixed.

4. Defense is much improved and is going to be a problem for opposing offenses.

5. Divaad Wilson is not the answer as punt returner. Hopefully, Gus slides Townsend in there
on a permanent basis. Kid reminds me of Otis Anderson Jr.

6. Appears that Tommy C is our QB2, would expect Keene to enter portal at some point.

7. Lee Hunter on sidelines but not dressed. Don’t know if it was injury or disciplinary issue.
Same thing with Terrance Lewis who was dressed and on sideline.

8. Appears we escaped without injuries tonight. Overall, good win but will need to clean up
some things in order to beat Louisville.

South Carolina St.

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I know we see the name South Carolina St. as our first opponent and we are all thinking a blowout. Just bringing it to everyone’s attention that we are facing a pretty good opponent in week 1.

* They won 6 of their last 7 games last year including a bowl win over Deion Sanders 11 win Jackson St team 31-10.
* They return 18 starters (9 on both sides of the ball).
* WR #1 Davis is 6’5 and going to be a problem.

This team looks just as good as Tulane, usf, East Carolina, etc.
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