Talent at the top of the roster is required for a Super Bowl run, but so is depth. And these difference-makers could determine whether their teams are playing into January, or watching from home.
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Gabriel Davis, WR, Bills
Davis has been the subject of
a heated debate in the fantasy football communityover the past month because his average draft position is skyrocketing. Those who support that trend believe his four-touchdown performance against the Chiefs in the playoffs was evidence that he just needed an opportunity after being stuck in a crowded receiver room during his first two NFL seasons. The skeptics seem to think that performance was an aberration, and point to his
underwhelming overall production as definitive proof.
The Bills didn’t give Davis a ton of snaps last season, and he’s been targeted just over 120 times in two seasons. He also dropped 15.9 percent of his targets in 2021, per Sports Info Solutions, which was the third-worst mark among receivers with at least 50 targets. That’s bad! But this isn’t: Davis finished 28th in the NFL in expected points added per target (and led the Bills), he finished second in explosive play rate, and he led the league in first-down percentage. So even with all the drops, the 23-year-old’s targets were an efficient source of production for Buffalo.
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Davis’s film also matches with that conclusion. In that Kansas City game, Davis showed some impressive route-running chops for a man of his stature. The first of his two crunch-time touchdowns came after he dropped a Chiefs cornerback with a quick hesitation move:
On the second, he used his large frame to lean into his defender before cutting in the opposite direction, instantly creating enough separation for Josh Allen to find him for the go-ahead score with 13 seconds left:
Earlier in the game, Davis deployed his speed and beat Juan Thornhill, who ran a 4.4 at the 2019 combine, in a race downfield. Allen took care of the rest:
That performance gave Buffalo’s front office enough confidence to move on from Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders this offseason and elevate Davis to the no. 2 spot in the wide receiver pecking order. But there isn’t a whole lot of depth behind him—and that puts even more pressure on the third-year pro to make the leap. Isaiah McKenzie and Jamison Crowder form a nice pair of slot weapons but can’t play outside in two-receiver sets, something the Bills will use more of now that they have a second tight end in O.J. Howard. And the two perimeter options behind Davis are Khalil Shakir, a fifth-round rookie, and Jake Kumerow, who owns just 23 career catches as he enters his age-30 season.
The Bills will go as far as Allen and the passing game takes them. And if Davis has a down year, they might not have enough to get through a loaded AFC.