2 for 1's

[hemightbejeremy]

Unless playing and losing road games against P5 doesn’t hurt us for NY6 (in other words if it’s the top tier teams in the country) and helps us get in the CFP (it doesn’t) it makes very little sense to do 2-1. Call it supply and demand. UCF has a short supply of stadium capacity and a relatively high (compared to the rest of the AAC) demand for seats no matter the opponent. For a cow it makes sense because they have a very high supply of capacity of seats at their home stadium and a very low nominal demand for those seats. Just going back to 2013 when we have played a Florida school or literally any P5 or BYU here are the attendance figures.

South Carolina 2013 47k
Bethune Cookman 2014 44k
BYU 2014 41k
FIU 2015 39k
Maryland 2016 43k
FIU 2017 38k
FAU 2018 44k
Pitt 2018 45k
FAMU 2019 44k
Stanford 2019 44k

Keep in mind since the premium expansion, the capacity is around 44k-45k. At the absolute low end with literally any Florida team, BYU, or P5 schools are at least 85-90% capacity and often 95-100%. What is the incentive to have a blue blood name 1 time in 3 years when it’s going to draw the same as a Pitt or Boise will? At the expense of a home game?

Now contrast this with usf who will draw 62-65k actual attendance for a single game vs the Gators or Alabama at home (mostly visiting fans) vs the 20-30k they actually have for any other opponent who doesn’t send a lot of visiting fans. You will see why the decision to sacrifice a decent opponent every year for a top tier bloodbath ever other year is an easy one for them.

 

[Colonel Mortimer]

Unless playing and losing road games against P5 doesn’t hurt us for NY6 (in other words if it’s the top tier teams in the country) and helps us get in the CFP (it doesn’t) it makes very little sense to do 2-1. Call it supply and demand. UCF has a short supply of stadium capacity and a relatively high (compared to the rest of the AAC) demand for seats no matter the opponent. For a cow it makes sense because they have a very high supply of capacity of seats at their home stadium and a very low nominal demand for those seats. Just going back to 2013 when we have played a Florida school or literally any P5 or BYU here are the attendance figures.

South Carolina 2013 47k
Bethune Cookman 2014 44k
BYU 2014 41k
FIU 2015 39k
Maryland 2016 43k
FIU 2017 38k
FAU 2018 44k
Pitt 2018 45k
FAMU 2019 44k
Stanford 2019 44k

Keep in mind since the premium expansion, the capacity is around 44k-45k. At the absolute low end with literally any Florida team, BYU, or P5 schools are at least 85-90% capacity and often 95-100%. What is the incentive to have a blue blood name 1 time in 3 years when it’s going to draw the same as a Pitt or Boise will? At the expense of a home game?

Now contrast this with usf who will draw 62-65k actual attendance for a single game vs the Gators or Alabama at home (mostly visiting fans) vs the 20-30k they actually have for any other opponent who doesn’t send a lot of visiting fans. You will see why the decision to sacrifice a decent opponent every year for a top tier bloodbath ever other year is an easy one for them.

It's not all about the eyes in the stadium, if we're selling out every game, but getting no coverage or exposure, how are we attracting new recruits and fans?

 

[hemightbejeremy]

It's not all about the eyes in the stadium, if we're selling out every game, but getting no coverage or exposure, how are we attracting new recruits and fans?

Our coverage level is relatively static and set by the conference if you are talking about games being televised. We attract new fans by having top 25 teams playing in NY6 bowls and having the fastest growing alumni base in the country. None of this requires road games to get bitch slapped by Notre Dame like the cows.

 

[Colonel Mortimer]

Our coverage level is relatively static and set by the conference if you are talking about games being televised. We attract new fans by having top 25 teams playing in NY6 bowls and having the fastest growing alumni base in the country. None of this requires road games to get bitch slapped by Notre Dame like the cows.

Not a lot of confidence in our boys, huh?

If you don't think more people are watching when we play the likes of Stanford, Pitt, and South Carolina, then I don't know what to tell you. Wins like Pitt, Stanford and others get you in the conversation. Do you think people would even remember the 2017 team outside of UCF fans if they had gone undefeated, but then beat Southern Miss in the Baton Rouge bowl or whatever? Not a chance. People talk about that team all the time to this day for 1 reason, they beat Auburn.

High profile wins are how you advance the program. Going undefeated and then winning the NY6 bowl is not a viable strategy to consistently get those wins.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

Not a lot of confidence in our boys, huh?

If you don't think more people are watching when we play the likes of Stanford, Pitt, and South Carolina, then I don't know what to tell you. Wins like Pitt, Stanford and others get you in the conversation. Do you think people would even remember the 2017 team outside of UCF fans if they had gone undefeated, but then beat Southern Miss in the Baton Rouge bowl or whatever? Not a chance. People talk about that team all the time to this day for 1 reason, they beat Auburn.

High profile wins are how you advance the program. Going undefeated and then winning the NY6 bowl is not a viable strategy to consistently get those wins.

What was our high profile OOC win that we scheduled in 2017? I think your example actually made my point.

 

[Wings0fred]

Our coverage level is relatively static and set by the conference if you are talking about games being televised. We attract new fans by having top 25 teams playing in NY6 bowls and having the fastest growing alumni base in the country. None of this requires road games to get bitch slapped by Notre Dame like the cows.

Though the contract is static, there IS some variability.

There’s a big difference in exposure between being (as examples) on ESPNU at noon, ABC at 3, and ESPN/2 at 8. All are possible with our current agreements.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

Though the contract is static, there IS some variability.

There’s a big difference in exposure between being (as examples) on ESPNU at noon, ABC at 3, and ESPN/2 at 8. All are possible with our current agreements.

Out of conference road games are not part of our media contract.

 

[Colonel Mortimer]

What was our high profile OOC win that we scheduled in 2017? I think your example actually made my point.

Did you read the end of my post where I said that wasn't a viable strategy?

Yes recruits come to UCF where the only chance you'll get to play in a high profile game is you go undefeated and play in a New Years Six Bowl. Oh and if you don't you'll be considered a failure, have fun.

 

[Wings0fred]

Out of conference road games are not part of our media contract.

True, I had forgotten about that.

However, the point stands that more attractive opponents increases the chances of better time slots and networks.

I think a major factor in the 2:1 discussion should be the $ we are offered for the road games. Anyone know/recall what each sellout home game is worth for us in terms of profit?

 

[hemightbejeremy]

Did you read the end of my post where I said that wasn't a viable strategy?

Yes recruits come to UCF where the only chance you'll get to play in a high profile game is you go undefeated and play in a New Years Six Bowl. Oh and if you don't you'll be considered a failure, have fun.

While that could factor in potentially for a recruit they likely aren’t choosing us over Kansas or Vanderbilt or whatever other low P5 offer they might have anyway. If their main goal is to play against name opponents. In reality though those aren’t the kind of recruits that would consider UCF anyway. Now playing on a top 25 team on television and putting yourself in position for a shot at the NFL is much more important. If a recruit is committing to a school because of some future non conference series spanning 5 years or whatever then usf should be dominating in recruiting. In reality I doubt a high school recruit knows what our non conference schedule is in 2026.

 

[Endeavor.]

all I know is that if we are 10-1 and Cincy is 11-0, Cincy will be going to the CCG. No one will look back and say well we lost to Clemson early on, all they will see is that your record isn't as good and that you didn't win the conference

 

[BlakNGoldAllDay]

all I know is that if we are 10-1 and Cincy is 11-0, Cincy will be going to the CCG. No one will look back and say well we lost to Clemson early on, all they will see is that your record isn't as good and that you didn't win the conference

That can’t happen. We’d play them in regular season or AAC Championship Game. Winner advances.

 

[Endeavor.]

That can’t happen. We’d play them in regular season or AAC Championship Game. Winner advances.

or Memphis or SMU depending on their season. Point is there could be a few teams at the top and a non conference loss can come back to bite.. its pretty straight forward, idk why you're looking for loopholes in what I said

 

[Colonel Mortimer]

or Memphis or SMU depending on their season. Point is there could be a few teams at the top and a non conference loss can come back to bite.. its pretty straight forward, idk why you're looking for loopholes in what I said

No he's right, there's not a scenario where we lose to a non-conference opponent but take care of business in the AAC where we don't get in the conference championship game. Could there be a scenario, where we lose an OOC game, then lose 1 or 2 games in conference and that OOC game is the difference between us making the conference championship game, sure, but I'd expect that to be very rare, and either way in that scenario the NY6 Bowl is no longer in play anyway.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

No he's right, there's not a scenario where we lose to a non-conference opponent but take care of business in the AAC where we don't get in the conference championship game. Could there be a scenario, where we lose an OOC game, then lose 1 or 2 games in conference and that OOC game is the difference between us making the conference championship game, sure, but I'd expect that to be very rare, and either way in that scenario the NY6 Bowl is no longer in play anyway.

There is a scenario actually where we lose a 3 way tie with other conference foes to decide the CCG teams where it comes down to ranking and an extra loss could hurt. We don’t play every other conference team in a season so there is no 100% way to control your own destiny.

 

[BlakNGoldAllDay]

There is a scenario actually where we lose a 3 way tie with other conference foes to decide the CCG teams where it comes down to ranking and an extra loss could hurt. We don’t play every other conference team in a season so there is no 100% way to control your own destiny.

Yes go undefeated in conference. He said we both have no losses in conference but we have one loss OOC to knock us out. That would be impossible because 2 undefeated play in CCG and 1 would lose. Will never be able to have 3 undefeated teams going into CCG.

 

[Colonel Mortimer]

There is a scenario actually where we lose a 3 way tie with other conference foes to decide the CCG teams where it comes down to ranking and an extra loss could hurt. We don’t play every other conference team in a season so there is no 100% way to control your own destiny.

Read past my first sentence. The point was, there is no scenario we go undefeated in conference play and don't play in the championship game. It's not possible.

 

[Lord Christopher]

I am not in favor of throwing out 2-1‘s with 40 P5 schools. What a ridiculous thought. Sorry. it is imperative UCF schedules teams to maximize financial revenue and profitability. We also need to finance our athletic department. Maybe a 2-1 with select schools with big profiles. But that is it. And only one 2-1 agreement every five years. Otherwise, DW was correct. I just would not have made it a public policy.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

Read past my first sentence. The point was, there is no scenario we go undefeated in conference play and don't play in the championship game. It's not possible.

Since not all teams play one another I can’t say 100% if that’s true or false. But I can tell you that the ranking does come into play for deciding where the CCG is played. There is no benefit to playing a next to impossible OOC road game where a loss puts you behind the 8 ball in ranking and a win doesn’t catapult you into the CFP.

 

[Colonel Mortimer]

Since not all teams play one another I can’t say 100% if that’s true or false. But I can tell you that the ranking does come into play for deciding where the CCG is played. There is no benefit to playing a next to impossible OOC road game where a loss puts you behind the 8 ball in ranking and a win doesn’t catapult you into the CFP.

Rankings only come into play to determine home field if there's a tie for the #1 slot, or who gets in if there is a tie for #2.

There are 11 teams in the AAC each team plays 8 games, so you play 8 of the 10 possible teams. The scheduler is not going to have 3 teams not play any games against each other during the season. (Unless their stupid I guess) It messes up the entire schedule if you do that. 3 undefeated teams will not happen, it's easily avoidable from a conference scheduling standpoint.

If the two teams UCF isn't playing that year are Cincinnatti and Memphis, they aren't going to schedule Memphis to have the two teams they don't play this year be Cincinnatti and UCF, is what I'm saying, and that's the only way you end up with 3 undefeated teams. It'll be UCF and somebody else that Memphis doesn't play..

 

[BlakNGoldAllDay]

Just pick any 3 schools and see if all 3 didn’t play each other.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

Rankings only come into play to determine home field if there's a tie for the #1 slot, or who gets in if there is a tie for #2.

There are 11 teams in the AAC each team plays 8 games, so you play 8 of the 10 possible teams. The scheduler is not going to have 3 teams not play any games against each other during the season. (Unless their stupid I guess) It messes up the entire schedule if you do that. 3 undefeated teams will not happen, it's easily avoidable from a conference scheduling standpoint.

If the two teams UCF isn't playing that year are Cincinnatti and Memphis, they aren't going to schedule Memphis to have the two teams they don't play this year be Cincinnatti and UCF, is what I'm saying, and that's the only way you end up with 3 undefeated teams. It'll be UCF and somebody else that Memphis doesn't play..

Cool story. It still makes no sense to play an extremely difficult road out of conference game since it doesn’t vault you into the CFP and can give you a loss that is the difference maker in determining home field in the CCG. The exact scenario played out with Tulsa this season. Tulsa and Cincy were both undefeated in the conference and Cincy got home field by virtue of a higher ranking (Tulsa of course had an OOC loss to Oklahoma State).

 

[BlakNGoldAllDay]

Cool story. It still makes no sense to play an extremely difficult road out of conference game since it doesn’t vault you into the CFP and can give you a loss that is the difference maker in determining home field in the CCG. The exact scenario played out with Tulsa this season. Tulsa and Cincy were both undefeated in the conference and Cincy got home field by virtue of a higher ranking (Tulsa of course had an OOC loss to Oklahoma State).

They also had a home game against Cincy canceled. That doesn’t happen most years.

 

[jtGoldenKnights]

i'm good with 2 for 1's. 2 at home one at FIU.

 

[Lord Christopher]

I looked at USF's schedule. I see one definite win. The majority of the rest will likely be losses. How nice.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

I looked at USF's schedule. I see one definite win. The majority of the rest will likely be losses. How nice.

You know the old saying “To be beaten by the best, you have to play the best.”

 

[OvilleNative]

We either need to schedule to go to a NY6 and have one premier match-up a year or schedule to get into a P5 .....but it doesn't appear we can have both.

 

[shacket]

Read past my first sentence. The point was, there is no scenario we go undefeated in conference play and don't play in the championship game. It's not possible.

Well... totally unrelated but you could have a season shortened by a global pandemic where you only play like 4 games and go undefeated in conference but don't play enough games to be eligible for your conference championship game.

The conference would probably just change the rules to let you in though.

Isn't it crazy that I am talking about real life 2020 Ohio State and non some theoretical scenario?

 

[Finance2000Knight]

Unless playing and losing road games against P5 doesn’t hurt us for NY6 (in other words if it’s the top tier teams in the country) and helps us get in the CFP (it doesn’t) it makes very little sense to do 2-1. Call it supply and demand. UCF has a short supply of stadium capacity and a relatively high (compared to the rest of the AAC) demand for seats no matter the opponent. For a cow it makes sense because they have a very high supply of capacity of seats at their home stadium and a very low nominal demand for those seats. Just going back to 2013 when we have played a Florida school or literally any P5 or BYU here are the attendance figures.

South Carolina 2013 47k
Bethune Cookman 2014 44k
BYU 2014 41k
FIU 2015 39k
Maryland 2016 43k
FIU 2017 38k
FAU 2018 44k
Pitt 2018 45k
FAMU 2019 44k
Stanford 2019 44k

Keep in mind since the premium expansion, the capacity is around 44k-45k. At the absolute low end with literally any Florida team, BYU, or P5 schools are at least 85-90% capacity and often 95-100%. What is the incentive to have a blue blood name 1 time in 3 years when it’s going to draw the same as a Pitt or Boise will? At the expense of a home game?

Now contrast this with usf who will draw 62-65k actual attendance for a single game vs the Gators or Alabama at home (mostly visiting fans) vs the 20-30k they actually have for any other opponent who doesn’t send a lot of visiting fans. You will see why the decision to sacrifice a decent opponent every year for a top tier bloodbath ever other year is an easy one for them.

Exactly

 

[Wings0fred]

Well... totally unrelated but you could have a season shortened by a global pandemic where you only play like 4 games and go undefeated in conference but don't play enough games to be eligible for your conference championship game.

The conference would probably just change the rules to let you in though.

Isn't it crazy that I am talking about real life 2020 Ohio State and non some theoretical scenario?

Heeeey - they played SIX 😆

 

[Gatorbull357]

In AAC you can get respect by being top 25 with a good record, winning the conference and a neutral NY6 bowl. That’s the ceiling. Cow scheduling will lead to cow results. Losing the impossible road games and fan apathy. Do you think their fan base added a single fan because they scheduled a road game with Notre Dame last year?

Thats fine but if UCD went undefeated or 11-1 with the schedules USF has, them they might crash the playoffs

 

[hemightbejeremy]

Thats fine but if UCD went undefeated or 11-1 with the schedules USF has, them they might crash the playoffs

Not sure what UCD is but the only teams crashing the playoffs with a loss are Clemson, Bama, and Ohio State. The only undefeated teams that will make a playoff are in the P5.

 

[Gatorbull357]

Not sure what UCD is but the only teams crashing the playoffs with a loss are Clemson, Bama, and Ohio State. The only undefeated teams that will make a playoff are in the P5.

I meant UCF. But be real, if you went undefeated while beating Alabama and UF on the road, you really think you wouldnt have a chance?

 

[Cocoa2010]

I meant UCF. But be real, if you went undefeated while beating Alabama and UF on the road, you really think you wouldnt have a chance?

No. The highest a G5 team will ever be in the 4-team CFP era is 5th.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

I meant UCF. But be real, if you went undefeated while beating Alabama and UF on the road, you really think you wouldnt have a chance?

Ignoring the fact that there is absolutely no reason at all for an Alabama or Florida to play a challenging out of conference game that won’t garner a 7 figure payday, it would be an undefeated P5 team or 1 loss blue blood that gets the spot over UCF. Even if UCF managed to beat a team on the road that never loses at home. They wouldn’t even let UCF within sniffing range of the CFP with 3 wins over ranked teams in 2017. Left at 12 just in case there was some sort of chaos. The invitational is all about making money which is why it features the same teams every year. The most popular teams with the biggest draw. Plus UCF isn’t a quality loss like an SEC team so if your 8-4 gators had a 5th loss to UCF they are knocked down a peg right there in the ranking. No better illustration of that than when UCF beat Louisville who was in discussion for being the BCS title game in 2013 before the loss. After the loss they dropped like a stone and even after winning every other game to finish 12-1 they were ranked 15. Also there is no guarantee that when games are actually played these teams are still good. The 2 years it would seem to have been beneficial for UCF to have another marquee opponent (two best years in 2013 and 2017) the Gators were 4-8 and 4-7 respectively. Does that kind of a win look better than Stanford or Pitt? Not really. The ceiling at this point is NY6 bowl and adding a probably road loss at an Alabama doesn’t help achieve that goal.

 

[OvilleNative]

Ignoring the fact that there is absolutely no reason at all for an Alabama or Florida to play a challenging out of conference game that won’t garner a 7 figure payday, it would be an undefeated P5 team or 1 loss blue blood that gets the spot over UCF. Even if UCF managed to beat a team on the road that never loses at home. They wouldn’t even let UCF within sniffing range of the CFP with 3 wins over ranked teams in 2017. Left at 12 just in case there was some sort of chaos. The invitational is all about making money which is why it features the same teams every year. The most popular teams with the biggest draw. Plus UCF isn’t a quality loss like an SEC team so if your 8-4 gators had a 5th loss to UCF they are knocked down a peg right there in the ranking. No better illustration of that than when UCF beat Louisville who was in discussion for being the BCS title game in 2013 before the loss. After the loss they dropped like a stone and even after winning every other game to finish 12-1 they were ranked 15. Also there is no guarantee that when games are actually played these teams are still good. The 2 years it would seem to have been beneficial for UCF to have another marquee opponent (two best years in 2013 and 2017) the Gators were 4-8 and 4-7 respectively. Does that kind of a win look better than Stanford or Pitt? Not really. The ceiling at this point is NY6 bowl and adding a probably road loss at an Alabama doesn’t help achieve that goal.

The goal is P5 membership. CFP is not attainable under this format. I'm of the believe that the aspiration to P5 needs to be the biggest consideration when we are scheduling. The development of a rivalry with a respected P5 program moves us nearer that goal than establishing a rivalry with BSU or BYU. It's sort like that adage "dress for the job you want not the one you have", but filling our schedule with BSU and BYU are G5 matchups, no matter how compelling those games turn out, keeps us in the G5.

 

[ucfmba2k2]

I meant UCF. But be real, if you went undefeated while beating Alabama and UF on the road, you really think you wouldnt have a chance?

5% chance at most. AND There would have to be 2 P5 champions with 2 losses.

 

[CBlackwellRN]

The goal is P5 membership. CFP is not attainable under this format. I'm of the believe that the aspiration to P5 needs to be the biggest consideration when we are scheduling. The development of a rivalry with a respected P5 program moves us nearer that goal than establishing a rivalry with BSU or BYU. It's sort like that adage "dress for the job you want not the one you have", but filling our schedule with BSU and BYU are G5 matchups, no matter how compelling those games turn out, keeps us in the G5.

With all due respect, BYU just absolutely crushed us. I’m not so sure we’re in a place where we can act superior to BYU or turn our noses down at starting a rivalry series with BYU.

 

[BlakNGoldAllDay]

I don’t think BYU is considered G5. They are Indy. Probably get a higher chance of making CFP if they go undefeated than we have in past.

 

[OvilleNative]

With all due respect, BYU just absolutely crushed us. I’m not so sure we’re in a place where we can act superior to BYU or turn our noses down at starting a rivalry series with BYU.

I think we do need to thumb our noses. I want us to be P5. BYU has no prospects for being P5 and I don't want us to link our future with them. Yes, BYU is among the more respected non-P5s, but so are we. We're simply not moving up in weight class by playing them. BYU has been dealt a similar hand to us except with religious bigotry thrown in: no other reason Utah got the invite before/in place of BYU.

I'm going to give us a break in that awful bowl "appearance" ......we had a coach with one foot out the door and a ton of opt outs. In the eyes of the P5, should we win our series with BSU and BYU, we'll simply be viewed like we're THE best athlete at the special olympics.

I get the stadium revenue issue for 7 home games, but if we did one FCS (always at home) and three 2-1s where it's staggered that two are on the road each year and one is at home between that and our conference schedule we'll always have six games at home. Who knows, with a new regime maybe we'll even get a H and H and we'll have 7 home games. We're not getting the invite to P5 without pursuing a schedule that looks P5. It's the cost of admission, and P5 membership is the ultimate goal.