Nevermind. We're at 2100 reported already now. Maybe next week.
What does a world stat have to do with 2800 US deaths in a day from Covid19 and an average of 100 for auto accidents?
Could look at how many normally die, compare to how many actually died. We're going to be talking hundreds of thousands of additional deaths on this so there will be a statistically significant difference.
US population growth is negligible at best (between 0.3 and 0.4% assuming full immigration) but it is also known. It’s easy to model this in. Countries and cities are already experiencing record high deaths. We know the number of deaths year over year as well. It’s actually extremely simple to do.
They will go back and look at things like what a typical number of deaths due to influenza or pnuemonia and take those out of this number. Or natural decline, stroke, etc. and do the same thing. Right now all we have is numbers of deceased who had Covid-19, not necessarily the number that it killed.
The idea that this is a significant number of people that just happen to be dying in a two week window while they have C19 just doesn't hold up to any mathematical analysis.
You don’t think everybody hunkering down at the house decreases flu numbers? They can tell if it is flu mainly because we can test for influenza. It also has a different progression timeline in the seriously ill than does Covid19.
Pretty much, yeah. It will still probably be the leading cause of death in April but not quite as high as what it is portrayed as now. Like the 102 year old twin sisters who died and had covid-19. In the final aggregate those deaths will be re-classified as general decline, etc. Pneumonia is a big one because death counts dropped off to almost 0 in March. That is statistically impossible.
Its not that they are separated. What I'm talking about is how many people died from this that wouldn't have died in an average month. They do the same thing every flu season. If we got daily flu death updates it would look like 100,000 people die every year from the flu, but when they do the final analysis and take out the average numbers of deaths from other things like kidney failure or bacterial infections (which can be a byproduct of the flu), the final numbers drops way down to 50 or 60k. It has nothing to do with being able to test for the flu accurately.
There is not such death classification as “general decline”, all deaths have an underlying medical cause.
That’s not what happens at all. In fact it’s the opposite. There are far far fewer deaths from flu positive patients than 50-60k. They extrapolate the larger number to account for undercounts amongst the elderly and those who die at home.
Ok, call it organ failure. The point is that the number of deaths from any given disease or whatever is fairly predictable. Right now everything is just being called Covid-19.
What you are saying isn’t actually true. In fact we are still undercounting. Because only patients that are classified as Covid19 through positive laboratory confirmation or through clinical diagnosis are counted. Removing the Covid19 deaths in NYC for example, the “other deaths” that you now think are underreported are actually at 150% of their normal levels.
I understand what you are saying and it’s not correct. Far fewer than 50k-60k deaths are confirmed positive for influenza. We do have flu tests. For initial count for Covid19 they are using confirmed Covid19 through laboratory or clinical diagnosis. When all is said and done they will revise the total impact up to account for deaths for which there was never a confirmation, but are above the normal number of deaths.
But we already have some data in. We know historically the number of people who die in March/April in NYC. We know we saw 400% of normal deaths for 2020. We know towns in Lombardy Italy saw 400% of normal deaths. Some areas it’s not widespread yet. To get the global picture we have to wait, but we can get localized impacts now.
It'll probably be further off than 20. NYC is an outlier so probably isn't a good representation of morbidity.
Yes you can compare NYC to itself. No you can’t compare it nationally. NYC due to public transport likely has the highest percentage infected in the country. Which is why it is decent data to use for forecasting what would happen if the virus was widespread in other places.
And after that the Covid19 dead in NYC and California will vote for Biden in the 2020 election. Inevitably giving him the popular vote. Believe me.
