I don't like this. So it's not real. I said early on that Trump would take a hit from this because you can't gaslight a virus. Well maybe I was wrong. Maybe if we just pretend the death totals (45,000) aren't real, then it will go away.
Covid deaths pushing toward 5k per day.
- Thread starter fried-chicken
- Start date
Or we can pretend that one city that has 1/2 of the deaths nationwide but 8% of the population is typical.
Are you implying that the spread among the population in California is similar to NYC and they just have lower mortality? I’d contend it isn’t as widespread in California due to factors we know (warmer climate, less dependence on public transportation). California was also the first state to institute stay at home measures so better outcomes there would be expected.
No. I'm saying that NYC is a very unique situation because it is unlike any other place in the country. As an analogy: 1 person infected put into a room with 10 people rubbing up against them is probably going to infect the other 9. That is not a typical situation that people find themselves in, but it can happen. Just not very often so it's an outlier. Infection rates for anything are predicated on various factors. Take HIV for example. Having gay sex increases your likelihood of getting HIV exponentially. It doesn't make the virus more or less deadly on its own, it just means that there are variables that can affect it.
I understand it is more widespread in NYC. I don’t think anybody is arguing that. What do you think is preventing it from being more widespread elsewhere right now?
Not just elsewhere, everywhere else. Even the 2nd and 3rd largest cities in the country don't compare to NYC in infection and death rate. Obviously environmental factors like temperature have an effect, but Chicago would be comparable in that aspect. NYC metro area: 23 million people, 20,000+ deaths. Chicago: 3 million people, 600 deaths. Chicago obviously has a higher population density than 99% of the country but even at that rate, they are 1/5th of what NYC is on average.
Detroit, Philly, Boston, and Chicago are all climbing right now as NYC cases and deaths come down. New York deaths were 30% lower than peak yesterday but the country had more as a whole than any other day previously. It’s clear more in NYC have been infected than elsewhere. That really doesn’t matter long term though. It just means other areas were able to social distance before it got to epidemic levels like it did in New York. It’s actually an argument for the measures that states have taken.
Or, it could just be that people normally have more social distancing than what you find in NYC. Texas hasn't exactly been draconian in their restrictions but their numbers are comparatively low, and they have a huge population as well.
I’m agreeing with you. Other areas are not widespread like NYC. That just means the proportion of people still susceptible to the virus is higher in those areas than NYC (assuming previous infection grants immunity from future infection).
Therefore, we have to dismiss NYC as an outlier, which means total death toll is 50% based on 92% population base to get a more accurate representation of morbidity.
Outlier of what? I said I agreed that it is more widespread in NYC at this early stage. What are you even arguing?
If by "many" you mean 3, yep. 2 are higher and are part of the NYC metro, the other is Connecticut (which is lower) who we already know are fudging numbers.
Isn't it obvious? This virus is not nearly the threat that it was made out to be and our response at all levels of government collectively tanked the global economy. We triggered a global depression and will probably have another world war for a .01% death rate. We're just making it worse by keeping the stay-at-home orders in place. Too late to turn back now.
***Right around*** Considering how many weeks Italy is ahead of Michigan and Louisiana and how their deaths are still accelerating it's easy to project them passing Italy and many states who got this later, being right behind them.
22 states are less than 1/4th of Italy. 44 are less than 1/2.
Italy is not weeks ahead of us. We probably had it before they did.
Give up. You are arguing with someone who thinks when they are done tallying everything up it will have a .01% mortality rate (1/10 that if the flu). This despite it already killing as many people in a month in the US as the flu kills all year in the midst of a global lockdown. Also the moon landing was faked, the earth is flat, 9/11 was an inside job, vaccines cause autism, and Sandy Hook was a false flag.
Ok. Well you're consistent in being wrong about this pandemic, it's just that you're wrong in slow motion because it takes weeks for the results to actually appear. Michigan first confirmed case March 10th, Italy first confirmed case Jan 31st. Michigan deaths per million today 271. Italy deaths per million today 415.
Michigan is 39 days behind Italy.
What was Italy's deaths per million 39 days ago? 17
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/f...e-weeks-before-previously-thought/ar-BB1321Ax
Whoops. Early February at the latest in Cali. Weeks before we knew previously.
Cali? I'm talking about Michigan. You said only NYC was bad and I'm telling you that we have states that rival the worst countries in the world and it's not just NYC.
Crazyhole: only NYC is bad
Me: more than just NYC is bad, look at Michigan.
Crazyhole: but not California, check mate.
Me: more than just NYC is bad, look at Michigan.
Crazyhole: but not California, check mate.
If it was in California 4 weeks prior to us knowing it was probably in michigan 4 weeks prior as well.
yeah the 2 day head start made all the difference, " NOT." Anti body Testing is showing Calif has 50 to 55 times as many case as listed.. Just didn't hit the population as hard, and the death rates are likely well below 1%. Most likely the people of California just live healthier lifestyles than NY.Early implementation of coronavirus guidelines worked?
Naaaaaaw.
The test you are referring to, 50 tested positive and 3250 tested negative. Those that were interested in getting tested by responding to a Facebook ad. This is the study you are using to suggest the virus is widespread correct?
Thankfully the total projected deaths of 60k is only 5 days away and after that we will have no deaths according to models regularly cited by white house.
Me from March 24th, when we had 900 dead in this country, with an accurate monthly projection of deaths to the exact day:
At the same time you were calling 100k death projections extreme. The receipts are out there for who was correct and who's been consistently incorrect on this pandemic.
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We have a grip on it now and if we continue down this path we'll get to a spot where we see a slow decline in deaths for the rest of the year, we'll get a vaccine in 2021 and we'll need to pick up the pieces of a broken America.
If we do dumb shit like they are doing in GA, then deaths will shoot back up and the economy will need to close again for another 3 months and we'll start this process all over again the economy will still be in the tank, we'll lose another 100k Americans and once we get a vaccine we'll need to pick up the pieces of a broken America.
There is no good solution but there is a solution where 100k people don't die for no reason.
If we do dumb shit like they are doing in GA, then deaths will shoot back up and the economy will need to close again for another 3 months and we'll start this process all over again the economy will still be in the tank, we'll lose another 100k Americans and once we get a vaccine we'll need to pick up the pieces of a broken America.
There is no good solution but there is a solution where 100k people don't die for no reason.
Rate of growth has slowed from It's fastest acceleration. Stay at home orders are working for that. We have a stoubourn and dumb population so we're never going to get people to do what they should regarding masks and not going to friends houses etc but we have found a balance that works. If we test out loosening we may be right or we may be wrong but if we are wrong it's devastation and if we are right it still doesn't fix the economy.
Depends what you consider knocking out. I know individuals under 50 hospitalized and one was in ICU on a vent for more than a week. Yeah young people can usually beat it before dying, but it’s not like it’s a walk in the park.
There is an undesirable gray area between dead and no symptoms is all I’m saying. People who measure the impact of the virus on different ages solely in terms of deaths are missing part of the story.
I see Elizabeth Warrens older brother died from it.
Seems to hit minorities pretty hard.
Seems to hit minorities pretty hard.
I know you didn't think of this yourself because this is much funnier than you are.
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