DOW back over 25,000
- Thread starter Crazyhole
- Start date
If Trump wins this November and we go back to a $1 trillion dollar deficit next year, will he get credit for cutting the deficit by 3/4ths?
So weve added 5 years of typical money supply growth in 3 months. Thats why the market is rebounding.
M2 went from 12T in 2015 to 15T in 2020 to 18T now.
M1 went from 3T in 2015 to 4T in 2020 to 5T now.
M2 went from 12T in 2015 to 15T in 2020 to 18T now.
M1 went from 3T in 2015 to 4T in 2020 to 5T now.
You once famously assured us we'd be at DOW 15K by early Fall. Still sticking by that?
Don't disagree with the sentiment but you cant use M2 here for an accurate picture. Stocks, treasuries, and AAA bonds are factored in so at some level its a zero sum game. I really don't think what we are seeing right now is a simple currency inflation issue. JMO, this is a rush to the top with intent to bail in the DOW, particularly with Boeing, Raytheon, Chase, and Exxon. Nasdaq is a total suckers index with the typical late spring IPO rush that draws in day traders.
Pretty sure that the Sauds are intentionally trying to de-peg from the dollar under the guise of budget deficits. They and Hong Kong are the only significant economies left that don't float their currency against the dollar, and we see whats going on in Hong Kong. This could, and probably will get really ugly next year. Our energy sector is totally fvcked if the Sauds devalue the riyal. Short of total and complete nationalism and defaulting on foreign holdings I don't see how we survive this.
85 doesn't understand interest rates and monetary supply. Forgive him.
15K was an easy possibility. We were down to 18K. I am surprised the Fed's monetary giveaway has resulted in this quick recovery. The real question now is when can they begin to raise rates, and what will the effects be from raising rates?
That's the question that can't be answered. 3 trillion from the fed that we know of, but somehow its close to 40 trillion in total valuation.
My theory is that the FED is using this as an opportunity to drive up the stock market and then use their leverage to bail and force it to collapse so they don't have to raise interest rates to contract the money supply. Its the only thing I can think of that makes sense. Its the Soros model from the 90s and early 2000s.
My thoughts are that we havent seen the recovery yet. This is inflation. People got a shit ton of money from PPP and the $1200 bucks. They are flooding the market with cash. It hasnt hit prices because low demand is keeping prices low but as demand recovers prices will increase.
You're going to have to walk through that thought process because it seems pretty contradictory. The market was flooded with cash which created artificially high demand.
Drizly, DoorDash, & Instacart been getting all muh government money the last few months
You were talking about the 1200 dollar checks. I'm not sure i would say that money went into the stock market, but even if it did I dont see a direct path for it coming back into consumers pockets to the point of creating inflation. If it did, and then gets cashed out and creates consumer demand wouldn't that increase corporate profits and, consequently, stock prices at a proportionate level?
I wouldn't dismiss him out of hand on this one. It wouldn't surprise me if we saw the biggest LPR/employment revision in history in a couple of weeks.
He is literally saying that the Labor Department is inventing numbers with absolutely no proof. The same department that’s been reporting the biggest job losses in history.
He is an insane left wing pundit which is why liberals and the media love him
Little bit of both. Business owners got 10 times the money that the $1200 cost. They've spent over $15000 per American. That money has to go somewhere and people wanted to invest it.
Banks, not business owners.
You get so close to understanding this sometimes but still tout the Obama economy.
Yeah sure. Sounds good
Same guy who said we would crash down to 15,000. Never take advice on something from Shook Chicken.
Do you see where he was/is coming from? We probably would have hit 15k if the fed hadn't stepped in and taken unprecedented measures like stock buys and deleveraging foreign countries.
This is a false premise. When Shook was making these now hilariously bad predictions, there was absolutely 0% chance that the Fed wasn't going to do what they've done. They were always going to take unprecedented monetary action given we were engineering our own recession.
If he couldn't figure that out then it's just more credence to the idea that he in fact has no idea what he's talking about.
The stock market has way too many variables to predict anything beyond an immediate crash from a war, 9-11, Pandemic, etc
So you acknowledge the monetary policy effect. Thats the difference between 14,15k and 18, 19k. So technically he was right. I just wish people would recognize it for 2009 and 2016 as well, and FC ignores it.
I just dont understand how many times we have to see bubbles and the following collapse before people recognize it while its happening.
No, business owners did. If you didnt see the frenzy around the ppp free money from members of the business ownership community you weren't paying attention. Many friends of mine put like straight 200k into their pockets because they got cash when their businesses werent even impacted. I dont have W2 employees in my business model so I couldnt loot with the rest of them but trust me on this. They made bank.
Sounds like you hang with friends that lack any morals
Yeah, declining free 6 figure handouts is exactly what got them to where they are.
Shook Chicken: ugh I can’t believe how terrible conservatives are
Also Shook Chicken: my best buds steal from tax payers, it’s awesome!
Also Shook Chicken: my best buds steal from tax payers, it’s awesome!
I did. A certain poster here attacked me passively aggressively twice for saying that I wasn’t making any major changes to my portfolio when the market was swinging 4-6% every day. I made some adjustments but mostly stayed in my positions, now I’m actually up from pre China Flu numbers.
