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OK the betting line is open for the question: How long does Dawkins last?

That's my point. Largest university shouldn't be woefully under funded that they cannot support the basketball team finacially while smaller schools with smaller TV rights manage to be successful just fine.

However, good thing recovery cove is on track. Maybe basketball team can be lifeguards and can sit outside football games panhandling.
I wonder if people think Gonzaga , Chicago Loyola, Houston, St Marie’s, Murray St, Wyoming, Boise, Davidson , San Francisco , Ohio , NM State and SMU are rolling in money and that’s why their teams are better than ours. Or maybe they are just doing great with what they have. Money is not an excuse to have a bad team. Especially in NIL era.
 
I think Dawkins is a good guy and the players like him but that alone does not make a good coach. There are way too many defensive lapses and intensity drop offs to win consistently. This season he has remarkable talent and yet his team is underperforming. Unless somehow he gets into the NIT it is time for UCF to look elsewhere. Things are about to get very hard in the BIG 12 and if he can't win in the AAC then I am pretty sure he won't win in the BIG 12 consistantly for sure.
We will be the laughing stock of B12 basketball with Dawkins (unless a miracle happens).
 
As of now, we'll be dead last in the AAC next season. So the word rebuilt may not work. Therefore if we fire now, it at least gives us 1 year to start the rebuild before the B12 beatdown.
 
I wonder if people think Gonzaga , Chicago Loyola, Houston, St Marie’s, Murray St, Wyoming, Boise, Davidson , San Francisco , Ohio , NM State and SMU are rolling in money and that’s why their teams are better than ours. Or maybe they are just doing great with what they have. Money is not an excuse to have a bad team. Especially in NIL era.

Cherry-picking a few teams on a single year, aka Boise, is not a good way to do comparisons. Actually, it's the worst way. You can always find outliers.

Do we really want to fire coaches for having 2 down years?

#UCFacts
 
Cherry-picking a few teams on a single year, aka Boise, is not a good way to do comparisons. Actually, it's the worst way. You can always find outliers.

Do we really want to fire coaches for having 2 down years?

#UCFacts
Where do you keep getting these *2* down years from?

17-18 = 6th place
19-20 = T-9th place
20-21 = 6th place
21-22 = currently sitting at 7th
 
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Cherry-picking a few teams on a single year, aka Boise, is not a good way to do comparisons. Actually, it's the worst way. You can always find outliers.

Do we really want to fire coaches for having 2 down years?

#UCFacts
Is there any scenario where he doesn't coach out his current contract? Should he get automatic extension based on 2018-19?
 
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He’s only had 1 good year unless he wins AAC tourney this year. He’s not TMos hire so he’s not invested in waiting for him to be a great coach. TMo is needing his hires to be difference makers. Leash should be short for a University that’s looking to be top tier in every sport. Not just going through motions and throwing money out window.
 
I could see Tmos reaching out to Grant McCasland. Knows B12 basketball and familiar from his one year at Arkansas State.
 
At some point the job becomes undesirable if the program is a cellar dweller in the b12. Like Kansas and Vanderbilt in football. If the aforementioned support and funding is not there and UCF goes into the toughest basketball conference, it's hard to consider this job attractive on top of Florida not being a basketball state in both fans and players.
 
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This is a very solid and nuanced response, I appreciate this.

For the record, I’m in favor of a new leader for our basketball program, but you brought up the very sensible and prudent issue here: money. You are absolutely correct, the program doesn’t have near the capital to buyout a coach, and/or hire a new (and better) coach - let alone enough in the budget to do both of those things.

My post from a couple of weeks ago about player development, and how our young players struggle to get significantly better the longer they stay in the program (Adams, Fuller Jr, Johnson Jr, Reynolds), I think should be the primary focus if Dawkins is kept passed this year. Where can we improve as a program when it comes to player development?

I think it’s time for Dawkins to reasses his coaching staff, make a couple changes on the margins with his assistants. I know he’s a very loyal guy to his people, but a few changes could make a significant difference.

The program’s identity has been one of defense and disruption, but the team has nosedived nationally in defensive metrics since Tacko left the program. Not enough offensive execution in the halfcourt, too many turnovers, too many fouls committed.

It’s time to reassess the staff, as well as the identity of the program.
Good post. Player development is typically the job of the assistant coaches, and it seems to be a weakness. Given budgetary constraints, it might be a better tactic to tell Johnny to make staff changes at the end of this season and see if anything changes.

This could be player development or it could just be bad recruiting: In Johnny's six seasons at UCF, only *one* player he recruited out of high school has finished in the top 2 in scoring average for a given season. Darin Green, Jr. finished second on the team in scoring average in 2019-20 at 10.1 ppg. He's also leading the team in scoring this season at 13.5 ppg. All the other top 2 scorers from 2016-17 to the present were either Donnie recruits or transfers.

Over six seasons, these are the only Johnny recruits out of high school to become rotation players:

Ceasar DeJesus
Dre Fuller, Jr. (in and out of rotation)
Darin Green, Jr.
Isaiah Adams
Darius Johnson

Of that group, only Darin Green, Jr. has ever finished a season averaging double figures in scoring.

So naturally the issue with recruiting or player development has reared its head, because this is the last year of Johnny's 3-season run with all his own players:

2019-20
16-14, 7-11

2020-21
11-12, 8-10

2021-22
15-8, 7-6

It's not horrible, but it's mediocre at best, and this may be as good as it gets. This is Year 6 of his tenure, so he's had time to construct a team through recruiting, coaching and culture-building. And Darius Perry, Brandon Mahan, Mbacke Diong and others (maybe Darin Green, Jr.? does he stay another year?) are gone after this season, so Johnny starts over.
 
Where do you keep getting these *2* down years from?

16-17 = 4th Above Memphis
17-18 = 6th. 1 place below Memphis
18-19 = 4th above Memphis
19-20 = T-9th place down year
20-21 = 6th place sure down year but not really going to count Covid year
21-22 = currently sitting at 7th

UCFify

What was your expectation when we were invited to the Big East, the best basketball conference at the time?

Our best finish in CUSA, a mid-major was 2nd 06-07. But in 10 years before Johnny, we finished middle of the pack. That was presumably good enough for bottom-dweller in the Big East or AAC.

My hope was to build a program to be in the top 5 of the AAC. Which Johnny has essentially done.

We finished 8th in the AAC before Johnny. We stormed the court when we beat Memphis before Johnny. And in his first year, we finished above Memphis.

#UCFacts
 
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It would be chronically stupid to get rid of Dawkins. Now if he goes 3 seasons straight under 0.500 in the Big XII, then we can talk. But until then ... not interested.

Although we do need to be worried about Coach Abe getting plucked! Seriously!
 
Good post. Player development is typically the job of the assistant coaches, and it seems to be a weakness. Given budgetary constraints, it might be a better tactic to tell Johnny to make staff changes at the end of this season and see if anything changes.

This could be player development or it could just be bad recruiting: In Johnny's six seasons at UCF, only *one* player he recruited out of high school has finished in the top 2 in scoring average for a given season. Darin Green, Jr. finished second on the team in scoring average in 2019-20 at 10.1 ppg. He's also leading the team in scoring this season at 13.5 ppg. All the other top 2 scorers from 2016-17 to the present were either Donnie recruits or transfers.

Over six seasons, these are the only Johnny recruits out of high school to become rotation players:

Ceasar DeJesus
Dre Fuller, Jr. (in and out of rotation)
Darin Green, Jr.
Isaiah Adams
Darius Johnson

Of that group, only Darin Green, Jr. has ever finished a season averaging double figures in scoring.

So naturally the issue with recruiting or player development has reared its head, because this is the last year of Johnny's 3-season run with all his own players:

2019-20
16-14, 7-11

2020-21
11-12, 8-10

2021-22
15-8, 7-6

It's not horrible, but it's mediocre at best, and this may be as good as it gets. This is Year 6 of his tenure, so he's had time to construct a team through recruiting, coaching and culture-building. And Darius Perry, Brandon Mahan, Mbacke Diong and others (maybe Darin Green, Jr.? does he stay another year?) are gone after this season, so Johnny starts over.
Can’t fire Johnson or Darius goes with him. I don’t think the assistants are the problem. Jermaine Taylor is one so I’m not sure why the team struggles on offense if the 3 isn’t falling.
 
Again, I think many in this thread have had unrealistic expectations. You expect UCF to be doing better than teams in our league with multiple final four appearances and multiple National Championships. Hello! We never won a single NCAA game until Johnny Dawkins. That was 3 seasons ago, if you count the Covid season which I don't.

Again, I don't get why people hold coaches to a higher level than the one they elevated a program too. That would be like holding Scott Frost to the expectation of better than a National Championship every year if he stayed.

#UCFacts
 
Again, I think many in this thread have had unrealistic expectations. You expect UCF to be doing better than teams in our league with multiple final four appearances and multiple National Championships. Hello! We never won a single NCAA game until Johnny Dawkins. That was 3 seasons ago, if you count the Covid season which I don't.

Again, I don't get why people hold coaches to a higher level than the one they elevated a program too. That would be like holding Scott Frost to the expectation of better than a National Championship every year if he stayed.

#UCFacts
Excellent points but Johnny excelled with his son and Donnie Jones' guys. I mean I hope he turns it around. Even the announcers noticed that offensive confusion yesterday (nobody knows what to execute).
 
Again, I think many in this thread have had unrealistic expectations. You expect UCF to be doing better than teams in our league with multiple final four appearances and multiple National Championships. Hello! We never won a single NCAA game until Johnny Dawkins. That was 3 seasons ago, if you count the Covid season which I don't.

Again, I don't get why people hold coaches to a higher level than the one they elevated a program too. That would be like holding Scott Frost to the expectation of better than a National Championship every year if he stayed.

#UCFacts
Well we should have seen major "improvements" this year and we saw regressions of many players.
 
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UCFify

What was your expectation when we were invited to the Big East, the best basketball conference at the time?

Our best finish in CUSA, a mid-major was 2nd 06-07. But in 10 years before Johnny, we finished middle of the pack. That was presumably good enough for bottom-dweller in the Big East or AAC.

My hope was to build a program to be in the top 5 of the AAC. Which Johnny has essentially done.

We finished 8th in the AAC before Johnny. We stormed the court when we beat Memphis before Johnny. And in his first year, we finished above Memphis.

#UCFacts
I don't think we beat Memphis before Johnny. It was with Johnny because I was on the court :) Can someone verify? THX :)
 
Well we should have seen major "improvements" this year and we saw regressions of many players.

Right. We have on paper the most talented team in program history by far. And this year has been a big disappointment.

Let's not throw the baby out with the bathwater. Some less talented teams achieve big things. Many very talented teams fail to live up to expectations.

#UCFacts
 
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Is there any scenario where he doesn't coach out his current contract? Should he get automatic extension based on 2018-19?

I don't know why it's encouraged in sports to break contracts. Do we lose our morals when it comes to sports? It also doesn't make financial sense.

Not renewing and not breaking our contract with Donnie Jones was the right move, IMHO.

#UCFacts
 
Again, I think many in this thread have had unrealistic expectations. You expect UCF to be doing better than teams in our league with multiple final four appearances and multiple National Championships. Hello! We never won a single NCAA game until Johnny Dawkins. That was 3 seasons ago, if you count the Covid season which I don't.

Again, I don't get why people hold coaches to a higher level than the one they elevated a program too. That would be like holding Scott Frost to the expectation of better than a National Championship every year if he stayed.

#UCFacts
I expect us to be 3rd in conference and getting At Large Bid to tourney. If Frost stayed to benchmark would be NY6 Bowls. Same as it is now. Losing 3+ games is not our goal.
 
I expect us to be 3rd in conference and getting At Large Bid to tourney.
UCF was expected to finish 5th in the AAC this season (still might) but Tulane is the biggest surprise so far this year as they hit on multiple transfers this season:

2021-22 American Athletic Conference Preseason Poll and Honors
1Houston (8)98
2Memphis (3)92
3SMU77
4Wichita State76
5UCF66
6Cincinnati52
7Tulsa43
8Temple37
T-9South Florida25
T-9Tulane25
11East Carolina14
First-place votes in parenthesis.

Preseason Player of the Year
Tyson Etienne, Wichita State

Preseason Rookie of the Year
Jalen Duren, Memphis

Preseason All-Conference First Team
Marcus Sasser, Jr., G, Houston
Jalen Duren, Fr., C, Memphis
Landers Nolley II, R-Jr., G, Memphis
Kendric Davis, Sr., G, SMU*
Tyson Etienne, So., G, Wichita State*

Preseason All-Conference Second Team
Brandon Mahan, Gr., G, UCF
Emoni Bates, Fr., F, Memphis
Deandre Williams, Sr., F, Memphis
Jeremiah Davenport, Jr., G, Cincinnati
Jaylen Forbes, So., G, Tulane

* denotes unanimous selection
 
UCF was expected to finish 5th in the AAC this season (still might) but Tulane is the biggest surprise so far this year as they hit on multiple transfers this season:

2021-22 American Athletic Conference Preseason Poll and Honors
1Houston (8)98
2Memphis (3)92
3SMU77
4Wichita State76
5UCF66
6Cincinnati52
7Tulsa43
8Temple37
T-9South Florida25
T-9Tulane25
11East Carolina14
First-place votes in parenthesis.

Preseason Player of the Year
Tyson Etienne, Wichita State

Preseason Rookie of the Year
Jalen Duren, Memphis

Preseason All-Conference First Team
Marcus Sasser, Jr., G, Houston
Jalen Duren, Fr., C, Memphis
Landers Nolley II, R-Jr., G, Memphis
Kendric Davis, Sr., G, SMU*
Tyson Etienne, So., G, Wichita State*

Preseason All-Conference Second Team
Brandon Mahan, Gr., G, UCF
Emoni Bates, Fr., F, Memphis
Deandre Williams, Sr., F, Memphis
Jeremiah Davenport, Jr., G, Cincinnati
Jaylen Forbes, So., G, Tulane

* denotes unanimous selection

I find it amazing that we were projected to finish above a Top 10 in ball NC's program in Cincy.

Thanks for putting realistic outsider expectations here, my UCFriend. It's desperately needed ITT.

#UCFacts
 
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I expect us to be 3rd in conference and getting At Large Bid to tourney. If Frost stayed to benchmark would be NY6 Bowls. Same as it is now. Losing 3+ games is not our goal.

Would you want to fire a coach to lost 3+ games and didn't make NY6 bowl game 3 years in a row if they won a NC 4 years ago?

#UCFacts
 
Again, I think many in this thread have had unrealistic expectations. You expect UCF to be doing better than teams in our league with multiple final four appearances and multiple National Championships. Hello! We never won a single NCAA game until Johnny Dawkins. That was 3 seasons ago, if you count the Covid season which I don't.

Again, I don't get why people hold coaches to a higher level than the one they elevated a program too. That would be like holding Scott Frost to the expectation of better than a National Championship every year if he stayed.

#UCFacts
I'll give you that the American is an underrated b-ball conference. But what you are saying about expectations and history could be said about football as well. Cincinnati's football program has been around since 1885. Memphis has been playing football since 1912. SMU's program began in 1915. Houston in 1946. Tulane used to be in the SEC. But we don't concede conference titles to these teams in football just because of their histories.

I could be wrong but I think Cincinnati is the only school in the American that has won a national title in hoops. They won back-to-back in 1961 and 1962, and they haven't been to a Final Four since 1992. That was 30 years ago. Memphis has been to one Final Four in the last 35 years. Neither one is even close to a national power at this moment. Houston is currently one of the best teams in the country but their presence is not preventing UCF from finishing higher than 7th in the conference. So it's a tough conference, but most of these programs haven't played up to expectations in years.
 
I'll give you that the American is an underrated b-ball conference. But what you are saying about expectations and history could be said about football as well. Cincinnati's football program has been around since 1885. Memphis has been playing football since 1912. SMU's program began in 1915. Houston in 1946. Tulane used to be in the SEC. But we don't concede conference titles to these teams in football just because of their histories.

I could be wrong but I think Cincinnati is the only school in the American that has won a national title in hoops. They won back-to-back in 1961 and 1962, and they haven't been to a Final Four since 1992. That was 30 years ago. Memphis has been to one Final Four in the last 35 years. Neither one is even close to a national power at this moment. Houston is currently one of the best teams in the country but their presence is not preventing UCF from finishing higher than 7th in the conference. So it's a tough conference, but most of these programs haven't played up to expectations in years.

Right. Could be said about UCFootball. I'm glad UCF didn't fire George O'Leary after his first season. We stuck together for 11 years and I will never forget our lunches together. George built our program. Loyalty can go a long way.

I was counting UConn as another team with multiple NCs within the AAC since my argument is you have to look at Johnny's whole tenure and where we were before Johnny, not just look at the last 2 years.

A good comparison to UCFootball is look at where George was at in 2008. IF we fired him then we would have never had the national success of the 2010s.

Johnny brought us to new heights. Now he should be held to a higher standard? A way higher standard than George? UCFoolish.

#UCFacts
 
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GOL finished top 4 in conference 3 times in his first 6 years. 2 times top 2. They did keep him 1 year too long as he wanted to leave after Fiesta Bowl. The 2 losing seasons he had ruined his winning percentage. He ended up with same % as Coach K. I don’t want to keep a coach 1 extra year hoping it will be great. Often times it doesn’t end that way. When GOL took over UCF wasn’t a desirable job. That’s why he got it. Our Basketball heading into B12 and having Monte Verde and IMG plus numerous other top talent in state is desirable. We have to stop letting Florida’s best players go to Illinois , Memphis and a few other schools. So far Johnny hasn’t done that. Did he even attempt to recruit Trent Frazier? He is ending up to be one of Illinois best guards of all time. When he was a Senior in High School BJ was a Junior I believe here. That would have been a seamless transition. Minott goes to Memphis. That shouldn’t happen.
 
GOL finished top 4 in conference 3 times in his first 6 years. 2 times top 2. They did keep him 1 year too long as he wanted to leave after Fiesta Bowl. The 2 losing seasons he had ruined his winning percentage. He ended up with same % as Coach K. I don’t want to keep a coach 1 extra year hoping it will be great. Often times it doesn’t end that way. When GOL took over UCF wasn’t a desirable job. That’s why he got it. Our Basketball heading into B12 and having Monte Verde and IMG plus numerous other top talent in state is desirable. We have to stop letting Florida’s best players go to Illinois , Memphis and a few other schools. So far Johnny hasn’t done that. Did he even attempt to recruit Trent Frazier? He is ending up to be one of Illinois best guards of all time. When he was a Senior in High School BJ was a Junior I believe here. That would have been a seamless transition. Minott goes to Memphis. That shouldn’t happen.

You do realize that the Big East in men's Basketball when we were invited was just like the Big 12 is now, don't you? #1 at the time.

#UCFacts
 
You do realize that the Big East in men's Basketball when we were invited was just like the Big 12 is now, don't you? #1 at the time.

#UCFacts
Big East was #1 before UCF actually played in the conference. UCF joined in 2013, after Georgetown, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Notre Dame, Villanova and a slew of others left. AAC lost virtually every big basketball program going into 2013.

2012-13 - Big East #2 conference RPI Rank
2013-14 - AAC #8 Big East #4
2014-15 - AAC #8 Big East #3
2015-16 - AAC #8 Big East #4
 
I don't know why it's encouraged in sports to break contracts. Do we lose our morals when it comes to sports? It also doesn't make financial sense.

Not renewing and not breaking our contract with Donnie Jones was the right move, IMHO.

#UCFacts
I mean technically Johnny really hasn't had "time" to build a program yet.
 
Right. Could be said about UCFootball. I'm glad UCF didn't fire George O'Leary after his first season. We stuck together for 11 years and I will never forget our lunches together. George built our program. Loyalty can go a long way.

I was counting UConn as another team with multiple NCs within the AAC since my argument is you have to look at Johnny's whole tenure and where we were before Johnny, not just look at the last 2 years.

A good comparison to UCFootball is look at where George was at in 2008. IF we fired him then we would have never had the national success of the 2010s.

Johnny brought us to new heights. Now he should be held to a higher standard? A way higher standard than George? UCFoolish.

#UCFacts
Some of those years with GOL were tough. He came in and could not win a game in 17 tries!! He went out getting fired during a winless season. Be he did build a program (some of it was rough, some was great!) :cool:
 
GOL finished top 4 in conference 3 times in his first 6 years. 2 times top 2. They did keep him 1 year too long as he wanted to leave after Fiesta Bowl. The 2 losing seasons he had ruined his winning percentage. He ended up with same % as Coach K. I don’t want to keep a coach 1 extra year hoping it will be great. Often times it doesn’t end that way. When GOL took over UCF wasn’t a desirable job. That’s why he got it. Our Basketball heading into B12 and having Monte Verde and IMG plus numerous other top talent in state is desirable. We have to stop letting Florida’s best players go to Illinois , Memphis and a few other schools. So far Johnny hasn’t done that. Did he even attempt to recruit Trent Frazier? He is ending up to be one of Illinois best guards of all time. When he was a Senior in High School BJ was a Junior I believe here. That would have been a seamless transition. Minott goes to Memphis. That shouldn’t happen.
Nice write up BNGAD
 
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Some of those years with GOL were tough. He came in and could not win a game in 17 tries!! He went out getting fired during a winless season. Be he did build a program (some of it was rough, some was great!) :cool:
Yeah, but he kicked 20 kids off the team**. Strong did similiarly at USF in 2018, and the are still not remotely as good going into 2022 as George had UCF by 2005, let alone 2007.

And if you would have told me that UCF would win 25 games in a row a dozen years later, after that 17 game losing streak ... I wouldn't have believed you.

**Was the 17 game losing streak all of George's games though?! Thought is was 14 or 15, with Kruz^H^H^H^HGooch owning 2-3 of them.
 
Yeah, but he kicked 20 kids off the team**. Strong did similiarly at USF in 2018, and the are still not remotely as good going into 2022 as George had UCF by 2005, let alone 2007.

And if you would have told me that UCF would win 25 games in a row a dozen years later, after that 17 game losing streak ... I wouldn't have believed you.

**Was the 17 game losing streak all of George's games though?! Thought is was 14 or 15, with Kruz^H^H^H^HGooch owning 2-3 of them.
Good question. I thought it was the whole first year (free beer) then 3 games (still free beer) into the next year. But you're right, we should verify :cool:
 
Good question. I thought it was the whole first year (free beer) then 3 games (still free beer) into the next year. But you're right, we should verify :cool:
Confirmed: O'Leary was responsible for 13 of the 17.

Kruz was responsible for 3 of the last 4 losses (3-7 record upon firing), with Gooch taking the reins in the final blowout loss of 2003 against #15 Miami (OH).


O'Learly then lost all 11 games of 2004, and 2 to start 2005, before UCF's first C-USA game as a member was a win against Marshall.


I remember loss #16 was against Ye'ole Ball Coach in his first game with South Carolina, and he was quoted as saying he "Wasn't (Didn't) play[ing] a team on a 15 (16?) game losing streak" (paraphrased)


DISCLAIMER: Neither 'research' was done nor 'experts' were harmed in the making of this post, since UCFBS is capable of doing and being neither.
 
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Confirmed: O'Leary was responsible for 13 of the 17.

Kruz was responsible for 3 of the last 4 losses (3-7 record upon firing), with Gooch taking the reins in the final blowout loss of 2003 against #15 Miami (OH).


O'Learly then lost all 11 games of 2004, and 2 to start 2005, before UCF's first C-USA game as a member was a win against Marshall.


I remember loss #16 was against Ye'ole Ball Coach in his first game with South Carolina, and he was quoted as saying he "Wasn't (Didn't) play[ing] a team on a 15 (16?) game losing streak" (paraphrased)
Thanks for the research UCFBS! :cool:
 
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