UCF's inaugural Big 12 men's basketball season can't be viewed as anything but a success.
There were low expectations going in. The Knights were picked last in the preseason and it's not hard to see why.
UCF was coming off a mediocre run in the AAC and were entering the best conference in college basketball. It was a mostly new roster with players that on paper didn't match up with the pedigree of the Big 12's best.
Adding to the angst was the tough offseason on the recruiting front. Two high school signees asked out of their letters of intent. One was due to lack of NIL (
Petras Padegimas), the other due to family issues and a need to be closer to home (
Joey Hart).
Ithiel Horton, who initially said he would return for another season, was a late exit to the transfer portal. He thought he had leverage to command more NIL, so he went to Texas where he got it.
UCF struck out on their early higher-profile transfer targets due to lack of NIL (relative to their new P5 peers). Players pursued included
Khalif Battle (Temple to Arkansas),
Javian McCollum (Siena to Oklahoma),
RJ Melendez (Illinois to Georgia) and
Russel Tchewa (South Florida to Georgia).
They eventually landed
Jaylin Sellers (second-leading scorer at Ball State),
Shemarri Allen (former JUCO player who was a star player at UMKC),
Ibrahima Diallo (former Ohio State recruit who became a productive player at San Jose State),
Omar Payne (former four-star who underperformed at Florida/Illinois and had fallen to JU) and
Marchelus Avery (New Mexico State transfer who at one point committed to UCF in HS).
UCF's top portal commitment though was former Wichita State star
Jaykwon Walton. He was initially enrolled at Alabama, but booted out of school due to a gun charge. Most schools wouldn't touch him. UCF gave him a chance and he enrolled.
But when
Penny Hardaway at Memphis had a roster spot open in August, he wooed Walton with NIL to leave UCF. As a grad transfer, there were essentially no restrictions and he could enroll/leave as many schools as he wished (fortunately that loophole has been closed going forward). That was a blow.
In the late summer, UCF scrambled to fill late roster vacancies with
Nils Machowski (Germany),
Mintautas Mockus (Lithuania) and
DeMarr Langford (Boston College).
Though some wondered how the team would fare in the Big 12, positive buzz began to circulate following the team's Italy trip and preseason workouts. UCF had a returning PG in
Darius Johnson - he struggled with injury issues last season but if he stayed healthy and took a big step forward? Another returner,
CJ Walker, was finally supposed to be healthy after missing most of the previous season.
We started hearing great things about the two transfer guards, Jaylin Sellers and Shemarri Allen. The two primary bigs, plus
Thierno Sylla, could be serviceable.
Besides the loss to Stetson (which looks a lot better now), UCF played well in their non-conference schedule. They did lose an early road game at Miami and a two-point home loss to Ole Miss. Remember, CJ suffered a preseason injury and missed those games.
Even so, expectations were low going into Big 12 play. I was actually encouraged by the non-conference performance and I thought 6-7 wins in the Big 12 was attainable. My thought process - this team knew how to play defense and would rise up to the level of competition once you started playing those teams on a regular basis.
And UCF did just that. They finished the 2023-24 regular season with a 17-15 overall record and 7-11 in the Big 12. The seven wins included three against ranked opponents (Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech).
This year's Kansas ended up being a notch below expectations, but what a night that was - seeing the court storming after beating the Jayhawks in the Big 12 home opener. Every game was an event and just a blast to watch. UCF was competitive in pretty much every game except two or three (at K-State, at Houston, at WVU).
If UCF had just a bit more offensive firepower on their roster, it's easy to see how they could have won a few more games and been a legitimate NCAA Tournament contender.
There is a strong belief that UCF has earned an NIT bid for the second straight season. Likely earning one of the Big 12's two autobids (given to the top two NET teams that don't make the NCAAT).
Kansas State just lost to Iowa State in the Big 12 quarterfinals, so it's expected UCF will remain ahead of the Wildcats in the NET. The Big 12 is believed to be a lock to get nine teams in the NCAAT. Right now, UCF is the Big 12's No. 11 NET team.
At the time I'm posting this, Cincinnati has not yet played Baylor. With a win, they could get closer to the NCAAT bubble. In any case, Cincinnati continuing to win would only help UCF as that would mean a 10th Big 12 team could get in the NCAAT.
If UCF gets a Big 12 autobid, they will almost assuredly host an NIT game next Tuesday. Maybe even against usf. Arena is unavailable Wednesday-Sunday due to a prior booking.
NIT brackets are revealed Sunday night at 9:30 p.m.
Anyway, back to the crux of this post - the status of
Johnny Dawkins.
With one more year left on his contract following this season, this was always going to be a pivotal year in regards to the future. I never really liked the term "hot seat" when it came to JD because that implies some things that I don't think are true.
I don't think
Terry Mohajir has been an AD hellbent on making a change for the sake of making a change, unlike other ADs out there. By all appearances, TMo has always been supportive and rooting for JD to succeed. They have committed more resources to MBB than ever before. Unfortunately, charters to every game and new facilities don't grow on trees.
Also, UCF Basketball has unique challenges moving up into the P5. Budget and resources pale in comparison to their Big 12 peers. And now it's NIL budget too. UCF was at the bottom of the Big 12 in MBB NIL, just a hair above Oklahoma State.
It's just the way it is, UCF being a football school coming up from the G5. There's not a proud hoops tradition. Fanbase (before this season) has been lackluster. It's hard to demand more success when the overall commitment just hasn't been there.
He's also somewhat of a bargain - With a salary this season in the $1.7M range, he's the lowest paid in the Big 12 and among the lowest-paid in the P5. JD giving UCF much more than they give him and all that.
Johnny Dawkins is a solid coach. Terrific human being. Players love him.
One would think Dawkins has earned an extension. It's incredibly rare for a P5 coach to enter the final season of a contract with no clarity.
Dawkins can point to some momentum on his side. Darius Johnson and Jaylin Sellers will return (if Dawkins stays). Possibly CJ Walker if he gets a medical redshirt.
7-foot-1 high school center commitment
Moustapha Thiam (four or five-star prospect, depending on your service) is definitely reclassifying to 2024, so he'd be on the team next season. Former four-star
Mikey Williams is also committed. Four-star
KJ Greene Jr. signed in November. Five-star PG
Mikel Brown Jr. (likely reclassifying to 2024) is also a top target.
The Mikey effect is real - there are other elite players interested in UCF to play with Mikey. UCF will be considered an attractive transfer destination. Bigs are obviously a need with Diallo and Payne leaving.
Of course, UCF needs to step up their MBB NIL game. I know they're working on it - Mohajir has personally been fundraising for it of late. They probably need to double (if not triple) their NIL budget going into next season.
Money doesn't always bring success though. Cincinnati's MBB NIL budget is believed to be $3M+ and they will likely be an NIT team just like UCF (whose budget this year was well under $1M).
So what does Mohajir do?
Does he offer Dawkins an extension? Another year or two added to the contract? For a program adjusting to the P5 but not yet at a full P5 payout, this seems like the prudent thing to do.
But if Mohajir does not believe Dawkins is the long-term answer, this could be the year to do so. Buyout will be as low as it's probably going to get (around $1.3M), short of letting Dawkins ride out his contract. The buyout could be lower. I only have a copy of his initial contract (not his extension), but if the base terms remain unchanged, the buyout would be offset by future employment.
Why would UCF consider a change?
While Dawkins has exceeded expectations this year, NIL fundraising is a new responsibility that all head coaches must adapt to. Dawkins is not considered particularly strong in that area, though he's in a tough spot coaching at a school with most donors focused on football.
But what if a coaching change meant an influx of NIL money?
As has been hinted on this board over the past few months, there could potentially be new money contributed to MBB if there is a coaching change. It's not wild speculation when ESPN's
Jeff Borzello links
Richard Pitino (New Mexico coach, son of Rick) to a potential UCF opening.
What sets UCF up best for future Big 12 success?
Johnny Dawkins with a $1M+ NIL budget?
Or Richard Pitino with a $2-3M NIL budget?
I'm just spitballing those numbers - don't take them as gospel. But it's just an illustration to show why a change might be considered.
And it doesn't have to necessarily be Richard Pitino, but any coach that has the blessing of potential new donor(s).
Like I said, NIL doesn't necessarily guarantee success but it's hard to be successful without it.
An extension - if one was agreed to - could be announced at any time. This is a popular week to announce extensions. In the past day or so, three SEC schools have announced extensions (
Chris Beard at Ole Miss,
Todd Golden at UF,
Lamont Paris at South Carolina).
At the end of the day, UCF could do a lot worse than Johnny Dawkins. He's built up tremendous goodwill and does have a promising path going forward with the commits.
UCF is still somewhat limited in available resources, I don't think they'd be able to go out and hire a
Dusty May. The circulating potential replacement possibilities aren't slam dunks. They'd either have a pedigree similar to JD, an up and comer (that could be boom or bust) or a retread.
So how do you see it? Should TMo extend JD? Has he earned it? What if TMo fired JD? How would you view TMo if he did that? Maybe I'm wrong, but I do think the anti-JD crowd is the "vocal minority" as
Marc Daniels called it earlier in the season.
My guess as of right now - TMo extends JD.
In any case, this will be incredibly interesting to monitor in the coming days.