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I posted this thread on the national board earlier today using metrics such as average viewers per game, revenue per year, and and brand values to predict future realignment moves. Statistically speaking, the Big Ten would be justified in adding Oregon, Stanford, and Washington to get Notre Dame on board, while Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and Notre Dame would be the four best choices for the SEC should they want to match the B1G’s expansion.

Now, the Big XII is currently in talks about adding Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah. We’ll assume for a second that happens. What if the Big XII, now at 16 members, wanted to match the other two conference’s expansion and get to 20 as well? This would deliver a knockout blow to the ACC and leave three legitimate conferences remaining in college football.

They would be looking for schools that would exceed the conference’s current median television ratings, revenue figures, and overall brand values; after all, the point of expanding would be to create enough value that the Big XII could go to the open market and use its acquisitions to get a significantly larger rights deal. Those are:

- 0.90M tv viewers
- $42.8M revenue generated
- $146.8M brand value

Assuming the conference was looking exclusively at ACC members, here would be the best candidates going off each metrics (assuming Clemson, FSU, Miami, and UNC are off the board):

- Top four remaining ACC schools in TV ratings: Louisville (0.62M), Virginia (0.61M), Pitt (0.55M), and Wake Forest (0.53M)
- Top four remaining ACC schools in revenue generated: Virginia Tech ($50.3M), Louisville ($48.9M), NC State ($47.6M), Virginia ($43.4M)
- Top four remaining ACC schools in brand values: Virginia Tech ($278.3M), Georgia Tech ($215M), NC State ($179.3M), and Louisville ($175.8M)

One school was top four in three categories (Louisville) and three schools made the list twice (NC State, Virginia, Virginia Tech). Their median values would also exceed or come close to exceeding the new Big XII’s current values. Do UCF fans believe these four would be the best eastern expansion candidates for the Big XII? I could see the argument of dropping Virginia for Georgia Tech. Would love to hear any thoughts, suggestions, or critiques.

Courtesy of @Knight_Light

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Well, with all this conference realignment movement we have successfully made it to July 3 and July 1, 2023 is right around the corner!

Rules: Memes only of your reaction to everything as it's currently unfolding.

I'll start:

If it wasn't for his complete incompetence in scheduling, we'd be having to buy out of a LOT of games.

Is it possible to hide/ignore entire threads that I just don't want to see at all in my list of threads?

Scallop season starts this week for my noeth tampa area friends. Anyone going this weekend? I typically go out of homosassa but I am going to try hernando beach Saturday. Hopefully it's a good season this year, the last couple have been shit.

B1G ≠ B10
B1G = B16

They did something similar with their previous logo.

saw a UCF license plate frame on a VW in the Kapalua Bay Course parking lot this pst Saturday morning. Anyone on here?

In 17 games he has 5 while batting .276 driving in 11 runs which is 2nd on the team, the Brewster Whitecaps.

I’m not sure from which side of the Bosporus but Heupel will not be denied by Europe!

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and I just realized there's already a thread showing this act of patriotism

Since we're talking about mega conferences, I figured maybe we could have a thread talking about how scheduling would work, not actually discussing teams involved.

With a 16-team conference, it seems rather simple. 4 pods of 4 teams each. You play the three teams in your pod, 2 teams from each of the other pods for a 9-game schedule. This lets you play each team in your conference home/away every four years.

With 18 teams, it gets a bit trickier but still manageable. You play one team as your conference rival every year. Then you play 8 other teams on a rotating basis. Just like above, this lets you play a 9-game schedule, and you get every team on a home/away every 4 years.

Beyond that, I'm not sure unless we start expanding the regular season, or doing away with OOC games. And with 24 teams, do you just give up on the idea of playing each team home/away every 4 years? Meaning you could go 4 years or more without ever seeing a particular team in your stadium?

Hank Goldberg, who worked at ESPN as an NFL reporter and handicapping expert for 17 years, died Monday on his 82nd birthday, his family confirmed.

Goldberg had been in treatment for chronic kidney disease in recent years.

Known as Hammering Hank, Goldberg was .500 or better in 15 of 17 NFL seasons while predicting games at ESPN. He made appearances on NFL Countdown and ESPN Radio and contributed to the network's thoroughbred racing coverage.

Goldberg was also a longtime fixture in Miami, serving as a local radio and TV host for more than 25 years and working as a Dolphins radio analyst. He began his career in the 1970s as an assistant to handicapper Jimmy "The Greek" Snyder.

Drop a pebble in the water: just a splash, and it is gone; But there's half-a-hundred ripples circling on and on and on, Spreading, spreading from the center, flowing on out to the sea. And there is no way of telling where the end is going to be. - James W. Foley

I think everyone has heard this poem or a similar one in the past. The recent state of college football and pending demise of the PAC-12 has made me think about it: How did college football get to such a crossroads? I'm sure the first answer that everyone will think of is unrestrained greed. While that most assuredly is a part of it, I present to you the pebble that caused the tsunami:



Her petty, spiteful short-sightedness destroyed a major conference and began the fracture of college football. Everything that has happened since then is her fault. It diluted the ACC even more, led to a bunch of weird defections to the B1G that solidified their power, and allowed the SEC to feast on everyone else while the chaos happened around them. Feel bad for the sport, but never feel bad for them. #BlameJudy

Happy Fourth

Most people thought we hit a semi-pause after the 2021 dominoes that started with the SEC taking Texas and Oklahoma, but conference realignment is never truly over.

My first thought when I saw the USC/UCLA tweet from Jon Wilner? Thank goodness UCF is set to join the Big 12.

We don't know the end game yet. Is the B1G done? What does the SEC do? Can the ACC do anything? Can the Big 12 raid the PAC-12?

While we face the uncertainty, I feel a lot more comfortable knowing UCF is "in the club" so to speak as opposed to being on the outside looking in.

While UCF's geographical location in Florida is an asset in everything else, it has been somewhat of a disadvantage when it comes to conference expansion because the geographically-friendly power conferences, the SEC and ACC, have not been realistic options. The ACC has always been the best fit, but they already have two Florida teams (who would not want to add a third) and have also diluted themselves with old Big East schools while being locked into a very long Grant of Rights.

It finally took the Big 12 being raided for UCF's fortunes to change. Geography didn't mean as much anymore. They needed schools and UCF was one of the top free agents.

That being said, if the SEC had delayed their Texas/OU grab to this summer, which was followed by this B1G move, I don't think UCF would be in the Big 12. It would have been too easy to formulate some sort of Big 12/PAC-12 merger, and UCF would be too far-flung geographically to have a chance of being included in that setup.

Again, there's no guarantees on what might happen from here on out, and we are looking at a Power Two in terms of revenue supremacy, but UCF already being elevated to de facto Power Five status is huge.

Reports say USC/UCLA had been negotiating with the Big Ten for "months." I'm really curious when this began. There was a report the new Big Ten TV deal was slated to be wrapped up by the end of May, and then we went through the entire month of June and didn't hear anything (until today I guess). How far along was this? We know USC has been sabre-rattling for quite some time, dissatisfied with the PAC-12's place in college football's revenue pecking order.

So what happens next?

There is media speculation the Big Ten is hoping to lure Notre Dame. Could Oregon/Washington be an eventual target? Would the B1G really leave USC/UCLA on a West Coast island?

As previously stated, the Big Ten is looking to finalize their next TV contract which is set to begin in 2023-24. Notre Dame's situation is complicated, given their entanglement with the ACC, but if other PAC-12 schools are coveted, shouldn't we know that fairly quickly? I don't think they're going to announce a mega TV contract later this summer, only to invite Oregon/Washington a few months later and restructure the deal.

As far as the SEC, if they really wanted other Big 12 schools, they would have invited them already. Why would they be interested in PAC-12 leftovers? While the B1G is going coast to coast, I have a hard time seeing the SEC moving into the Pacific Northwest. And unless they can untangle that pesky ACC GOR, I'm not sure who they can add that makes sense. But if ACC schools are on the table, things could get wild.

So in the meantime, we really need to know if the B1G is planning any other immediate moves, and if the SEC is interested in making a counter-move. It's possible both stand pat, for now.

If so, could the PAC remain intact with 10 schools? Losing the Southern California schools really does gut the conference though.

Can the PAC-12 backfill? Can the Big 12 raid the PAC-12? What about a merger? Is the ACC inclined to do something?

The current PAC-12 TV deal expires at the end of 2023-24. The current Big 12 TV deal expires one year later, in 2024-25.

What configuration makes the most sense?

If Oregon/Washington get a B1G invite, I think it becomes very clear - the Big 12 can pluck off the best remaining pieces of the PAC - Arizona, Arizona State, Utah and Colorado.

If Oregon/Washington are staying put with nowhere to go? That might give the PAC leftovers the confidence needed to try and stick together. Who does the poaching at that point? Could they convince a group from the Big 12 to join? Or go after MWC callups?

We're going to see a 16-team SEC and B1G, and that's assuming no additional moves are made which very well may happen. A 22-team Big 12/PAC merger seems kind of unwieldy though.

Like I said, I don't know how this is going to play out, but I feel a lot better about UCF's chances today than I would have a year ago at this time.

P.S. If the Big Ten really wants to rock the foundation, their next move should be planting a stake in Florida, right smack dab in the middle of the most talent-rich state in the Southeast and home to flocks of B1G alumni. Checkmate, SEC.

From reading Warchant off and on, and a lot more in the last few days, "Regal Nole" has fancied himself as some sort of FSU expansion insider. I don't know if that's true, but that's what he claims.

Regal Nole just posted this:

Hearing that ESPN executives plan to meet with Jim Phillips this week to discuss the way forward for the ACC. The SEC is planning for expansion and ESPN will help facilitate moving the top brands accordingly.

ESPN will present a viable pathway for the leftover ACC schools to not be harmed financially in a way that makes sense for all involved. There is still a decent amount of market value left to restructure media contracts for what will be left of the ACC, Big 12 and PAC after the heavyweights migrate to the B1G and SEC.

Wake Forest, BC, etc. being in a middleweight league is a lot better than crossing ESPN and FOX and getting demoted further down to Sun Belt level payouts. ESPN has enormous contractual and financial leverage to make this happen.

This is still going to take some time to work out and things are still fluid but we are way ahead of the 18 month timetable I posted about a couple months ago.

Will post more when I can...