Bernie would need unprecedented support from young voters and great turnout. The head to head polls have him way ahead of Trump.
Warren could win easily IMO
As the primary is playing out, Bernie is not getting young people to turn out. Reading twitter, Krystal Ball, Gravel Institute, etc etc are all of course saying it is rigged and its Warren's fault, and other excuses. What none of them are acknowleding, is that is becoming increasingly clear that Sanders isnt expanding the base and young people arent bothering to vote.
- In Alabama, only 7% of the voters were in the 17-29 range compared to 14% in 2016. Sanders won six of every 10 of those voters Tuesday compared to four of 10 in 2016.
- In North Carolina, 13% of Tuesday’s electorate were young voters, compared to 16% four years ago. Of those, 57% went for Sanders in 2020 compared to 69% in 2016.
- In South Carolina, young voters made up 11% of the electorate Tuesday compared to 15% in 2016. Sanders won 43% of those voters Tuesday compared to 54% four years ago.
In California people under 30 overwhelmingly supported Sanders, but they only made up 14% of the vote.