USC/ UCLA to Big 10?

[sk8knight]

I think ESPN and Fox are going to be surprised how many fans of the left over teams stop watching college football altogether. Viewership will drop for the B1G SEC alliance

I’ll be out for sure. My interest has already severely waned with the way CFB treated the undefeated UCF teams and the new normal of the athletes being their own brand and treating the schools as simply a way to grow their individual brand. All respect to people who enjoy that model, but that is not the college sports and student athlete vision that I give my extra hard-earned money to fund. The more college athletics becomes semi-pro under the veneer of educational institutions, the more it loses the heart and soul of what made it great.

 

[Psycho Jim]

The landscape is different and it comes down to eyeballs and ratings.
Our value comes in our alumni base, it is huge and growing faster than almost any other school. Small schools are doomed for obsolescence in this framework.

As far as who we need to grab, we need presence in places we are not. We do not need in state rivals that don’t add eyeballs.

 

[DaShuckster]

I’ll be out for sure. My interest has already severely waned ...

The mega-TV dollars we're soon going to be talking about says you'll be in the minority of sports viewers

The landscape is different and it comes down to eyeballs and ratings.

Exactly. Texas and OU's decision -- along with USC and UCLA's -- weren't about 'joining a new conference' as much as it was positioning themselves to be among the elite, 40-ish teams that will play to the tune of $100M-plus dollars each year.

What's yet to be mentioned in all the USC-UCLA hoopla, is that these same mega-rich SEC-B1G programs will soon be competing in a brand-new conference and national championship playoff system that will make the Big Two's 'regular season' money haul pale by comparison.

The more college athletics becomes semi-pro under the veneer of educational institutions, the more it loses the heart and soul of what made it great.

I don't disagree with you. But let's be brutally honest here, THAT SHIP sailed a long time ago.

 

[U C to the F]

I think ESPN and Fox are going to be surprised how many fans of the left over teams stop watching college football altogether. Viewership will drop for the B1G SEC alliance

I won’t watch just like I don’t watch that joke of a playoff.

 

[Asphalt.Jungle]

many years ago i came across the chilean soccer league standings and saw two teams in the league with the name universidad in it and it caught my attention because i was like "a university in a professional league?"

Club Universidad de Chile - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Club Deportivo Universidad Católica - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

started off as a university team and then separated while keeping the name in the 80s.

 

[Gwoz]

I think ESPN and Fox are going to be surprised how many fans of the left over teams stop watching college football altogether. Viewership will drop for the B1G SEC alliance

The money is in t-shirt fans. Alumni is just a small percentage. They want New York to treat Rutgers like Giants and Jets. Even if they suck fans come out and cheer because they are their team.

I don't buy into the whole, "I'm going to boycott watch how the league suffers". Alumni's of the 30 or so programs really hurt by this isn't enough, the rest of the programs never had a shot to being with and still watch.

There will be alumni of those schools that will attach themselves to other schools like they did prior to more teams making notice in college football.

 

[Poolside Knight]

The money is in t-shirt fans. Alumni is just a small percentage. They want New York to treat Rutgers like Giants and Jets. Even if they suck fans come out and cheer because they are their team.

I don't buy into the whole, "I'm going to boycott watch how the league suffers". Alumni's of the 30 or so programs really hurt by this isn't enough, the rest of the programs never had a shot to being with and still watch.

There will be alumni of those schools that will attach themselves to other schools like they did prior to more teams making notice in college football.

Lmao that is never happening

CFB has declined in national relevance the last few years, it is not even covered as much on tv anymore(build up during the week)

 

[Gwoz]

Lmao that is never happening

CFB has declined in national relevance the last few years, it is not even covered as much on tv anymore(build up during the week)

Odd that TV contracts are in the billions for cfb and has seen exponential growth in the last decade, but not getting covered as much anymore.

I'm not saying this is a good model for everyone, but all money has been pointing to this being a success. ESPN and Fox is not shelling out money and getting no return, they are continuing to rake it in.

Everything about college football is money, half the time this board is getting excited about raising money, getting more TV money, spending money on facilities, ect.

 

[beelit47]

The money is in t-shirt fans. Alumni is just a small percentage. They want New York to treat Rutgers like Giants and Jets. Even if they suck fans come out and cheer because they are their team.

I don't buy into the whole, "I'm going to boycott watch how the league suffers". Alumni's of the 30 or so programs really hurt by this isn't enough, the rest of the programs never had a shot to being with and still watch.

There will be alumni of those schools that will attach themselves to other schools like they did prior to more teams making notice in college football.

This is likely the worst take ive seen on this board.

 

[PhDee]

You missed the point about TV markets. It was something like, ESPN gets $7.65 per month per cable subscriber if you have a school in the market. Doesn't matter if subscriber is a fan of the school or not. This is why Rutgers is vaulable it the B1G.

Gotcha now

 

[UCFGrad05]

What happens to Oregon State and Washington State? I know they aren’t sexy brands but they’ve been getting “P5” money for decades.

I have to imagine their ADs aren’t just going to let that go.

 

[beelit47]

What happens to Oregon State and Washington State? I know they aren’t sexy brands but they’ve been getting “P5” money for decades.

I have to imagine their ADs aren’t just going to let that go.

They might just be hung out to dry. Theyre been collecting paychecks for years and havent made anything of themselves.

 

[UCFGrad05]

They might just be hung out to dry. Theyre been collecting paychecks for years and havent made anything of themselves.

True. Very true.

Hard to believe it. Actual teams from the big boy table may actually get relegated out.

 

[mr. knightman]

My prediction: Power 4 with 20 members each, 80 teams. 10 per division.

There will be a "Group of Blah" made up of the rest.

The divisional schedules would work well with 10 per division mathematically. Of course the "big 2" have been the big 2 already and will continue to be the "bigger 2", but they need the relationships with the best of the rest also. I don't see an "apocalypse" per se but more of a fat-trimming. Let's be honest with ourselves, it sucks, but 131 schools was a LOT for FBS, and more than FCS. We all have said some programs just "need to go away" because of performance, attendance, etc...I think that's happening.

 

[beelit47]

True. Very true.

Hard to believe it. Actual teams from the big boy table may actually get relegated out.

In a perfect world Kansas gets relegated to FcS and North Dakota State gets promoted like the premier league

 

[mr. knightman]

In a perfect world Kansas gets relegated to FcS and North Dakota State gets promoted like the premier league

I always thought that was a good system, reward for sustained performance. Relegate for continued suck.

But that makes too much sense and will never work here.

 

[DaShuckster]

They might just be hung out to dry. Theyre been collecting paychecks for years and havent made anything of themselves.

Yep, I guaranteed you the historic has-beens in the Pac 12, Big XII, and ACC in the old CFB World are in for some seriously hard times ahead.

Universities like UCF and Cincinnati have positioned themselves for much better future TV deals outside of the B1G-SEC alliance than any of those former skirt hangers-on have.

The Washington State's, Oregon State's, Kansas's, and Duke's who collected nice conference paychecks thanks to USC, Texas, Oklahoma, and Clemson are going to have to hope that the 'new kids on the block' (up-and-coming programs like UCF) BRING THEM ALONG into whatever conference configuration the New Kids' choose in hopes of still getting a decent TV deal.

 

[anon_gi3vk9zbfmw0w]

In a perfect world Kansas gets relegated to FcS and North Dakota State gets promoted like the premier league

Yeah, relegate the current national champions in basketball 😐

 

[Square Knight]

News flash guys...The often quoted $7.64 that Disney gets from cable companies has nothing to do with whether teams are in market or out of market.

When Disney negotiates with cable/satellite companies (which cross state lines and school markets by the way) they are negotiating the basic fees for ABC/ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU/etc. Whether certain schools are in a particular market or not has no relevance.

What DOES have relevance is conference networks. It has been a few years since I looked at the figures, but when I did, both ESPN (SEC Network) and Fox Sports (the B10 Network) receive between $1.10 - $1.50 per month per cable subscriber that is in the "footprint" (usually the state) where a school is located, and only about 15 cents per cable subscriber that is outside that footprint.

For example, when Rutgers and Maryland joined the B10, Fox Sports received around $1.20 per month of income for every cable subscriber in the NYC area (in this particular case I don't think the agreement included the entire state of NY) and another $1.20 for every cable subscriber in the state of Maryland. This is the money that ESPN/Fox use to pay the SEC and B10 for the content that is placed on the conference networks.

 

[DaShuckster]

Yeah, relegate the current national champions in basketball 😐

As Kansas discovered when the B1G was rumored to be taking Missouri and Nebraska back in 2009, the Big Dawg Football Conferences don't care about basketball.

In this next round of reallignment moves, basketball powers like Kansas and Duke won't move the "we gotta get those guys!" needle a bit.

 

[sk8knight]

News flash guys...The often quoted $7.64 that Disney gets from cable companies has nothing to do with whether teams are in market or out of market.

When Disney negotiates with cable/satellite companies (which cross state lines and school markets by the way) they are negotiating the basic fees for ABC/ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU/etc. Whether certain schools are in a particular market or not has no relevance.

What DOES have relevance is conference networks. It has been a few years since I looked at the figures, but when I did, both ESPN (SEC Network) and Fox Sports (the B10 Network) receive between $1.10 - $1.50 per month per cable subscriber that is in the "footprint" (usually the state) where a school is located, and only about 15 cents per cable subscriber that is outside that footprint.

For example, when Rutgers and Maryland joined the B10, Fox Sports received around $1.20 per month of income for every cable subscriber in the NYC area (in this particular case I don't think the agreement included the entire state of NY) and another $1.20 for every cable subscriber in the state of Maryland. This is the money that ESPN/Fox use to pay the SEC and B10 for the content that is placed on the conference networks.

It’s all part of the package, right? It’s not like cable providers can refuse the conference networks.

 

[Poolside Knight]

I’ll be out for sure. My interest has already severely waned with the way CFB treated the undefeated UCF teams and the new normal of the athletes being their own brand and treating the schools as simply a way to grow their individual brand. All respect to people who enjoy that model, but that is not the college sports and student athlete vision that I give my extra hard-earned money to fund. The more college athletics becomes semi-pro under the veneer of educational institutions, the more it loses the heart and soul of what made it great.

that is when I started to lose interest overall in CFB ..the vitriol towards UCF was unhealthy and it really illustrated everything wrong w this sport. and add in the powers rejecting a real playoff too just months ago

I still will be active in this board community and will always root for ucf but I am way less engaged in the sport overall

 

[beelit47]

Yeah, relegate the current national champions in basketball 😐

Nobody cares about shooty hoops

 

[UCFloridaTech]

Here is my B1G/SEC expansion projection - see teams 'not' already in said conferences:

A look at college football’s most valuable teams as conference expansion unfolds

A look at college football's most valuable teams as conference expansion unfolds.

sports.yahoo.com

 

[DaShuckster]

Here is my B1G/SEC expansion projection - see teams 'not' already in said conferences:

Notre Dame - A 'Sure Thing' for B1G
Clemson - A 'Sure Thing' for SEC

Florida State - An SEC Maybe
Washington - A B1G Maybe
Oregon - A B1G Maybe

Not listed in the article:
Stanford - Likely once ND commits to B1G

 

[anon_gi3vk9zbfmw0w]

Nobody cares about shooty hoops

I hate to break it to you chief, but the conference UCF is about to join is more of a basketball conference than football. But keep getting those jokes off, hilarious.

 

[DaShuckster]

I hate to break it to you chief, but the conference UCF is about to join is more of a basketball conference than football. But keep getting those jokes off, hilarious.

I hate to break it to you chief, but college football dwarfs basketball. If college basketball mattered, Trust me, Kansas, North Carolina, and Duke would have already been snatched up by the B1G long ago.

 

[anon_gi3vk9zbfmw0w]

I hate to break it to you chief, but college football dwarfs basketball. If college basketball mattered, Trust me, Kansas, North Carolina, and Duke would have already been snatched up by the B1G long ago.

Obviously no one is arguing that football doesn’t bring in more money than any other sports, more than many programs combined.

However, my initial comment was to push back against certain weaker football schools getting relegated or booted, because they provide their conferences with value in other areas (Kansas/Duke in basketball, Vanderbilt/Oregon St. in baseball, etc).

 

[mr. knightman]

Other sports matter in better conferences like the Big 12. That's all.

 

[beelit47]

I hate to break it to you chief, but the conference UCF is about to join is more of a basketball conference than football. But keep getting those jokes off, hilarious.

I meant it in jest and agree we need to improve bball…but i stand by my original comment. Bball sucks. Fball is the money train

 

[mr. knightman]

Basketball programs at schools that are successful at both major money sports can typically account for between 10% and 30% of total athletics revenue, and at some private schools with both being successful, much more.

Don't kid yourself. Basketball, and other sports are important drivers and DO have impact on these decisions. Look at the math. It won't deceive you. Usually.

 

[beelit47]

Basketball programs at schools that are successful at both major money sports can typically account for between 10% and 30% of total athletics revenue, and at some private schools with both being successful, much more.

Don't kid yourself. Basketball, and other sports are important drivers and DO have impact on these decisions. Look at the math. It won't deceive you. Usually.

While true, when tou consistently go 1-11 in fball and lose to fcs teams one has to question if the money is worth it

 

[Knight Strength]

Do not add a school for their basketball program. Trying to establish the Big12 as a basketball conference to the detriment of football will bring less eyeballs and less money. It's not a factor. Especially in the Big12s position where it's already a strong bball conference.

 

[hendu1976fl]

Ah, I just don't like idiots who think they can define an entire community based on their bigoted life. An example that anyone can understand, the bigotry against blacks. I've lived in Georgia for over 15 years, lived the rest of my life in the North, and have met more racists in the north than I have in Georgia. (Only met 1 in Georgia, the other one was an ***hole that told my wife, a girl scout leader, "Don't let my daughter bunk in the same tent as the black girl." Can you imagine the ignorance? PS. Lived near Scranton PA and saw far more bigotry there than in the "South" (for example the "joke about the serial killer in Scranton who kill multiple blacks- "Why is x (he doesn't deserve a name) get the Nobel Prize? He took 6 people off welfare." No doubt racists are everywhere (tho much, much fewer than liberals want), but I came face to face with far more racists in the north, than I did in Georgia.


EDIT: Entirely off topic so no real need to respond.

I have seen the exact same thing, heard the exact same thing from northern coworkers in my part time job in retail. All of them are 60+. Most of them I would characterize as good fellas-to whites, other than they are a bit (in some cases a lot) racist- Michigan, Penn, NY, NJ. I have seen them notice a person of color walking into the store and turn their backs and walk the other way as to avoid helping them. As a cashier and quasi manager I immediately call them back and force them to help the customer. I don't want to judge a region by a few individuals, but it is striking how much animosity northerners, or the ones I work, have against working class people of color.

 

[hendu1976fl]

Yeah, but three gentlemen shook hands and looked each other in the eye and whatnot…… you know, the “alliance.”

Warren played the ACC and P12 for complete fools. Now you have essentially the AFC and NFC.

Still though, who would have thought this time last year that the Big 12 might be the third conference to survive?

ND is not joining the ACC. Too much money and now too many historical rivals for them in the Big 10.

The ACC is on borrowed time. The GOR just lets them kick the can down the road. The only thing that can save them now is raiding the Big 12 for about 6 teams, renegotiate their TV contract, and extend the GOR to about 2060… if they can convince everyone to get onboard with extending it. But, you know UNC, UVA, and GT know the Big 10 covets them. VT, Clemson, FSU and NC State would join the SEC today.

Oregon and Washington are the only thing that could save the P12, but nobody in the B12 will ever believe they are committed to staying in the P12 and will jump at the B10 the first chance they get.

So the Big 12, once thought for dead, is in position to scoop up the remnants of the P12 and ACC and become a potentially 20+ team super conference where legitimately every team has an equal chance to rise to the top. No “most favored nation” status for the likes of Texas or Ohio State.

Conservatively forecasting, the current Big 12 ( I do not include OU/UT, and do include the new 4) could pick up any combination (or all) from a pool of…

P12 - Utah, Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State, Washington State, Oregon State and California.

ACC - Pitt, Louisville, Syracuse, BC, Wake Forest and Duke.

Notes: If the Big 10 doesn’t want Kansas, I can’t see them coveting Duke. And, Cal has issues joining the Big 12 because the state of California has laws in place that prevent public universities from using state funding to travel to states California deems as discriminatory towards gay people. (Oklahoma has specifically been pointed out.)

This projection was put out PRIOR to the UCLA/USC announcement, but AFTER the Texas/Oklahoma announcement.

Power 5 Conference Payout Estimates | Navigate

Our team estimated the rise in average Power 5 conference payouts over the next 8 years. You can see from the chart above that each conference’s average payout is expected […]

nvgt.com

Adding a boatload of power 5 schools should positively affect that number, plus there will be more money available because there will be three leagues instead of five.

Not to mention there are more bidders this go round than 10 years ago. Apple TV just signed a $2.5 Billion deal with Major League Soccer, so broadcasters are in the market for live sports content and are willing to pay for it.

Potential suitors include:

CBS/Paramount+
NBC/Peacock
ABC/ESPN/2/U/+
Fox/FS1/FS2/FX
Apple TV
Amazon Prime

The future of the Big 12 looks a lot brighter potentially, right now, than it did a year ago. Bringing in UCF, Houston, Cincinnati and BYU last year stabilized the league to the point where it is in a position of strength to poach others when the time comes.

awesome post! I agree with a lot of what you are talking about. However, when a conference says they aren't doing something in expansion, believe the opposite. I don't know if it was your post or another, but someone said the Big 10 isn't looking east, so Im guessing that is their next move. Notre Dame or other ACC schools are in play. If Notre Dame flips, maybe Stanford, Oregon and Washington go to the Pac 12. But if the Big 10 wants to get to the athletes and be competitive on the field with the elites, they need to get into the SE, which is why I think they are going to run a big train through the rest of the ACC all the way down to Florida.

 

[hendu1976fl]

No one seems to mentioning Netflix, who will inevitably need to thrust themselves into live sports. Live sports is their answer for declining revenue. You can only grow so much based on shitty shows and movies.

Stranger things is not shitty

 

[hendu1976fl]

Obviously no one is arguing that football doesn’t bring in more money than any other sports, more than many programs combined.

However, my initial comment was to push back against certain weaker football schools getting relegated or booted, because they provide their conferences with value in other areas (Kansas/Duke in basketball, Vanderbilt/Oregon St. in baseball, etc).

UNC, Duke, and Kansas play two games a week. How many eyeballs do they generate in mens hoops? Honestly, I don't know, someone who wants to prove me wrong will look it up and post it. Probably more than their football teams. Dashuckster is not wrong, football is driving this ship, but does a school offer something other than football is also a driving force. Football season essentially lasts three months Sept-Nov. After that its conf championship games and Bowl Mania presented by ESPN. 9 more months to broadcast. Basketball still brings in a lot of money, especially among the elite BB schools. I would think UNC hoops is worth more than most schools ( call it top 30) football programs. I mean they (ESPN) advertise the hell out of UNC, especially when they are good or playing against Duke. Substitute Duke with Kentucky or Kansas, that is must see TV.

All I'm really saying is don't poo poo (Dashuckster, it is hard not envision talking to the Rock) some, not all, basketball schools. If the SEC were to add FSU and Clemson for football- 18 schools. Add UNC and Kansas for hoops- 20 schools, you are looking at controlling media coverage in football (sept-Nov) but likely into Jan with playoffs, mens hoops from Jan -March (Kansas, UK, and UNC in mens hoops- one of them is getting to the final four every other year plus our other current members) and then baseball and Softball going into mid June. In July and August media outlets are talking about the upcoming SEC football season. Plus UNC and Kansas are AAU. North Carolina is somewhat fertile recruiting ground for football, maybe basketball- wink wink.

 

[OvilleNative]

You are still looking at CFB through the old model of 100-plus programs playing in regional conferences leading to a national championship playoff. The new model is going to be about two Big Dawg conferences, period.

The acquisitions the Big Two made this summer make it crystal clear they plan to create their own little college football alliance with 40-ish schools involved in playoffs for conference - and ultimately - a national championship. If a program is deemed by the Big Two to have enough of a Nielsen-registering National Brand (like Notre Dame and Clemson), they might still get an invite, otherwise, they’ll be left behind.

Fans of all the other schools can yell “that’s UNFAIR!” and they‘ll be justified. But the ‘new normal’ in CFB will be about creating and marketing a national brand league full of national brand programs. Whatever the other conferences do at this point is irrelevant because the B1G-SEC alliance will be getting the lion’s share of the TV money and attention. The big winners in the leftover conferences will no doubt declare themselves national champions — like UCF did after going undefeated and beating Auburn — but the Alabama’s of this new alliance won’t care and the Auburn’s and its ilk will no longer be playing bowl games outside of the alliance to give the others the opportunity for bragging rights.

You’re 100% right, the power five is turning into the power 2, basically the NFC and AFC.

 

[lawknight]

🤣 🤣 🤣

 

[knight_tracker]

My prediction: Power 4 with 20 members each, 80 teams. 10 per division.

There will be a "Group of Blah" made up of the rest.

The divisional schedules would work well with 10 per division mathematically. Of course the "big 2" have been the big 2 already and will continue to be the "bigger 2", but they need the relationships with the best of the rest also. I don't see an "apocalypse" per se but more of a fat-trimming. Let's be honest with ourselves, it sucks, but 131 schools was a LOT for FBS, and more than FCS. We all have said some programs just "need to go away" because of performance, attendance, etc...I think that's happening.

If at 20 teams it makes you wonder if at some point the mega conferences only schedule games within their conference