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USC/ UCLA to Big 10?

Exactly. Anyone who laughed at adding Rutgers to the Conference isn't a fan of the member universities who will be earning north of $100M annually from its next TV deal.

The B1G now has teams in the Top Four TV markets and eight out of the top ten.
Only problem is the people in NY/NJ aren’t Rutgers fans. Most like ND. So that’s why they are wanting to add them. Rutgers didn’t add value.
 
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This guy seems to have good sources. Reported on USC/ UCLA going to the BIG 10 on April 18


This is what he is Reporting Today




So it seems ESPN will help the BIG 12 add the PAC12 teams in return the BIG 12 will let OU and UT leave early at a reduced price. This guy has been spot on so far so I trust his sources.
Here are other interesting nuggets.







Why/HOW would ESPN help the Big 12 when Fox is the majority broadcast partner for the Big 12 and PAC 12? I call BS.
 
To get the next contract.
The Big 12 is already due in a couple years to start a new contract which typically means a year from now negotiating will begin in earnest. I am not trying to be argumentative, I just fail to see how ESPN has any real influence in the situation.

Don’t get me wrong, I am CERTAIN ESPN want the Big 12 to cut a deal to let OU/UT out early, but they don’t have the power to influence it, otherwise it would have been forced already.
 
Only problem is the people in NY/NJ aren’t Rutgers fans. Most like ND. So that’s why they are wanting to add them. Rutgers didn’t add value.
Rutgers as a program doesn’t add value, but the market Rutgers sit in the midst of does add value for the Big 10 Network.

The B10 can charge premium per household rates to carry it on basic cable in the Rutgers market, whereas without a conference affiliated school in the market, it would be carried in an add on sports package for about $0.15 per household.
 
B10 TV contracts is leading the way and obliterating B12, Pac12, ACC in value. Can't see how anyone can think B10 is making any bad decision in the last 10 years. Same with SEC.

B10 would make the same Rutgers deal in a heartbeat and laugh their way to the bank while people argue that you need a good program to increase revenue.
 
The Big 12 is already due in a couple years to start a new contract which typically means a year from now negotiating will begin in earnest. I am not trying to be argumentative, I just fail to see how ESPN has any real influence in the situation.

Don’t get me wrong, I am CERTAIN ESPN want the Big 12 to cut a deal to let OU/UT out early, but they don’t have the power to influence it, otherwise it would have been forced already.
The moves that have begun and will follow shortly are the momentum that will change college FB. It's coming hard and fast. Current contracts will be renegotiated and when the smoke clears there will not only be fewer conferences but working agreements between networks that divide the spoils. The next few weeks we'll see previous combatants working together to ensure they're relevant. Right now, the B12 (bringing UCF along with them) looks like a survivor and in fact, a winner. But fingers crossed, we'd better buckle up until a final decision is made.
 
Rutgers as a program doesn’t add value, but the market Rutgers sit in the midst of does add value for the Big 10 Network.

The B10 can charge premium per household rates to carry it on basic cable in the Rutgers market, whereas without a conference affiliated school in the market, it would be carried in an add on sports package for about $0.15 per household.
Cord cutting has made that argument nonexistent. People are only getting the channels they want. No one is going out of way to add channels to watch Rutgers. 70% of households no longer have a cable subscription. That’s going to continue to increase every year. National Brands are what networks are targeting. That’s why ND is being courted.
 
Az blows. You take Az State before Az, unless you're just saying you want a patsy for football, and are just taking them for the other sports (specifically basketball). In like ~90 years they have 3 season where they won 10+ games. They haven't won an outright conference title since 1936. Last time they were even co-champs was 1993.

Az is in Tucson (the #71 market). Az State is in Phoenix (the #12 market). Arizona has like ~50k students. ASU has ~75k students.

Utah makes a lot of sense, especially with BYU already on board. Natural rivalry already in place. You have locked down the state of Utah. Not trying to make that sound like more than it is but basically "owning" both products in a state is better than one or none of them. They are unique in the kinds of players they typically roster their teams with.
Arizona is also AAU.
 
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Has USF been invited to the ACC yet?*
miss cleo 90s GIF
 
The Big 12 is already due in a couple years to start a new contract which typically means a year from now negotiating will begin in earnest. I am not trying to be argumentative, I just fail to see how ESPN has any real influence in the situation.

Don’t get me wrong, I am CERTAIN ESPN want the Big 12 to cut a deal to let OU/UT out early, but they don’t have the power to influence it, otherwise it would have been forced already.

https://www.oklahoman.com/story/spo...early-big-12-exit-ou-football-sec/7793252001/
 
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Good stuff. I’d love for Oregon and Washington to be shut out of Big10 and forced into Big12. Then take AZ and UT and call it a day
Why would we take UT we already have that state with BYU and they aren't helping an instate rival. We take Colorado and get another huge market.
 
National Brands are what networks are targeting.
On one hand, you poo-poo the Big Ten's entry into the massive NY market with Rutgers AND, fyi, there are A LOT of alumni of Big Ten schools living in the NY metro area. Then in the very next breath you proclaim the 'national brands' are what the networks are touting. If the Big Ten wasn't already considered a national brand, they sure as heck are now with the acquisition of the LA schools.
 
On one hand, you poo-poo the Big Ten's entry into the massive NY market with Rutgers AND, fyi, there are A LOT of alumni of Big Ten schools living in the NY metro area. Then in the very next breath you proclaim the 'national brands' are what the networks are touting. If the Big Ten wasn't already considered a national brand, they sure as heck are now with the acquisition of the LA schools.
Every conference has people living everywhere. I’ve already stated Cable packages are not a selling point anymore. Why do you think ESPN has + now? It’s subscription based because people cut the cord. Amazon, YouTube, Hulu and many others are selling subscriptions for channels. Doesn’t matter where you live. TV market means next to nothing. Oklahoma will have more people watch than the Hurricanes because they are good and a National brand. No idea what you are arguing.
 
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This is an interesting twist I haven't considered. Watching the Big 12 football play for 12 hours straight on a Saturday.

 
No one seems to mentioning Netflix, who will inevitably need to thrust themselves into live sports. Live sports is their answer for declining revenue. You can only grow so much based on shitty shows and movies.
 
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Every conference has people living everywhere. I’ve already stated Cable packages are not a selling point anymore. Why do you think ESPN has + now? It’s subscription based because people cut the cord. Amazon, YouTube, Hulu and many others are selling subscriptions for channels. Doesn’t matter where you live. TV market means next to nothing. Oklahoma will have more people watch than the Hurricanes because they are good and a National brand. No idea what you are arguing.
Cable subscriptions are still the lion’s share of ESPN’s revenue. There are still 70+ million pay-TV customers at $7.64 per subscription. Contrast that with 13.8 million subscribers to ESPN+ at an average of $4.55 per subscription. ESPN+ has also been posting losses recently.

 
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According to this article The Big 12 Could become a third super conference in expansion.
Wishful thinking, but no way they will come close to the SEC and Big 10. I still think they need to be proactive and improve the conference as much as possible. The path for a team coming out on top in the Big 12 should be much easier than playing out of the SEC.

 
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Most of the media is focused on teams leaving the ACC for the Big 10 or SEC. I have seen a little chatter about the ACC next move could be merging with the Big 12. Now that would be a shocker. Not only would that be a good scenario for UCF, it would leave teams in the Pac 12 out with few options. I assume the percentage of this happening would be very low, but you know the ACC is weighing all their options not to be left behind.
 
Most of the media is focused on teams leaving the ACC for the Big 10 or SEC. I have seen a little chatter about the ACC next move could be merging with the Big 12. Now that would be a shocker. Not only would that be a good scenario for UCF, it would leave teams in the Pac 12 out with few options. I assume the percentage of this happening would be very low, but you know the ACC is weighing all their options not to be left behind.
ACC would take some teams, but there is no need for a full merger. They already have 14 teams. West Virginia seems like an obvious choice, especially with Pitt rivalry.
 
According to this article The Big 12 Could become a third super conference in expansion.
Wishful thinking, but no way they will come close to the SEC and Big 10. I still think they need to be proactive and improve the conference as much as possible. The path for a team coming out on top in the Big 12 should be much easier than playing out of the SEC.

We can’t invite AZ, AZ ST, CO, and UT until we know that Washington and Oregon are off the table.
 
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Cable subscriptions are still the lion’s share of ESPN’s revenue. There are still 70+ million pay-TV customers at $7.64 per subscription. Contrast that with 13.8 million subscribers to ESPN+ at an average of $4.55 per subscription. ESPN+ has also been posting losses recently.

Good article. The 70 million is an estimate. They said subscriptions to cable are dropping every year. Mostly older people dying. They are the ones that aren’t tech savvy. Also the money breakdown for domestic and international tv includes all of the Disney owned channels. Not just ESPN channels. So the 7.64 gets split between, ABC, ESPN and all of the Disney Channels. ABC probably gets more of that. Roughly $3.00 attributed to ESPN. So they are still making money from cable but not enough to worry about adding more Rutger type teams people don’t watch anyway in place of a team with a low ranked market but a good national following.
 
Mike Huguenin mentioned on Bianchi's show the ACC just renegotiated their TV deal taking them out to 2036. Both Miami and FSU's GOR buyouts would be ~$500M. I would assume this would also apply to Clemson. OU and Texas, both very rich schools struggling in the $80M range so I don't understand how FSU or Clemson could come up w/that kind of money. Not sure if the ACC schools could afford deflecting to the SEC or BIG10.
I would imagine both the Big 10 and SEC are examining the ACC bylaws. What many thought would happen to the Big 12 might happen to the ACC. If enough schools are willing to leave the conference, they might have enough votes to just dissolve the league and negate any exit fees. For the Big 12 it was something like 75% of schools had to vote to dissolve. If it is 70% for the ACC, you would need 10 schools to vote in favor. If the SEC and Big 10 are going to move to 24 team leagues (which some writers discussed last year) the Big 10 could take UVA, UNC, Clemson, GA Tech, and FSU. Notre Dame (according to Heather Dinich), can just leave in football, but could vote to disband the league. Throw in Oregon and Udub, that gives them 24. The SEC could grab some combination of the schools I listed with others like Louisville, Va Tech, NC State, Duke, Miami and Pitt. If the SEC wants to expand to the west coast, maybe Stanford would have interest, maybe not. However, any combination of those 10 ACC schools spells the end of the ACC, and major college football as we know it. If it is 75% to dissolve, you need 11 or 12 teams. Not as likely, but Syracuse is still out there to get 12. My guess is that Boston College and Wake would join the AAC if this scenario were to play out.
 
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Nobody cares about football in Colorado. I don't see the point in taking UC Boulder.
You missed the point about TV markets. It was something like, ESPN gets $7.65 per month per cable subscriber if you have a school in the market. Doesn't matter if subscriber is a fan of the school or not. This is why Rutgers is vaulable it the B1G.
 
You missed the point about TV markets. It was something like, ESPN gets $7.65 per month per cable subscriber if you have a school in the market. Doesn't matter if subscriber is a fan of the school or not. This is why Rutgers is vaulable it the B1G.
That’s not true. I already made the counterpoint. It’s $7.65 including ABC and Disney owned channels. Not ESPN by itself. $3.00 max and cable subscribers are dwindling like newspaper subscriptions. They took Rutgers when that mattered. They wouldn’t in 2 years from now because cable subscriptions don’t mean much.
 
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Every conference has people living everywhere. I’ve already stated Cable packages are not a selling point anymore. Why do you think ESPN has + now? It’s subscription based because people cut the cord. Amazon, YouTube, Hulu and many others are selling subscriptions for channels. Doesn’t matter where you live. TV market means next to nothing. Oklahoma will have more people watch than the Hurricanes because they are good and a National brand. No idea what you are arguing.
You are still looking at CFB through the old model of 100-plus programs playing in regional conferences leading to a national championship playoff. The new model is going to be about two Big Dawg conferences, period.

The acquisitions the Big Two made this summer make it crystal clear they plan to create their own little college football alliance with 40-ish schools involved in playoffs for conference - and ultimately - a national championship. If a program is deemed by the Big Two to have enough of a Nielsen-registering National Brand (like Notre Dame and Clemson), they might still get an invite, otherwise, they’ll be left behind.

Fans of all the other schools can yell “that’s UNFAIR!” and they‘ll be justified. But the ‘new normal’ in CFB will be about creating and marketing a national brand league full of national brand programs. Whatever the other conferences do at this point is irrelevant because the B1G-SEC alliance will be getting the lion’s share of the TV money and attention. The big winners in the leftover conferences will no doubt declare themselves national champions — like UCF did after going undefeated and beating Auburn — but the Alabama’s of this new alliance won’t care and the Auburn’s and its ilk will no longer be playing bowl games outside of the alliance to give the others the opportunity for bragging rights.
 
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You are still looking at CFB through the old model of 100-plus programs playing in regional conferences leading to a national championship playoff. The new model is going to be about two Big Dawg conferences, period.

The acquisitions the Big Two made this summer make it crystal clear they plan to create their own little college football alliance with 40-ish schools involved in playoffs for conference - and ultimately - a national championship. If a program is deemed by the Big Two to have enough of a Nielsen-registering National Brand (like Notre Dame and Clemson), they might still get an invite, otherwise, they’ll be left behind.

Fans of all the other schools can yell “that’s UNFAIR!” and they‘ll be justified. But the ‘new normal’ in CFB will be about creating and marketing a national brand league full of national brand programs. Whatever the other conferences do at this point is irrelevant because the B1G-SEC alliance will be getting the lion’s share of the TV money and attention. The big winners in the leftover conferences will no doubt declare themselves national champions — like UCF did after going undefeated and beating Auburn — but the Alabama’s of this new alliance won’t care and the Auburn’s and its ilk will no longer be playing bowl games outside of the alliance to give the others the opportunity for bragging rights.
I think ESPN and Fox are going to be surprised how many fans of the left over teams stop watching college football altogether. Viewership will drop for the B1G SEC alliance
 
Good article. The 70 million is an estimate. They said subscriptions to cable are dropping every year. Mostly older people dying. They are the ones that aren’t tech savvy. Also the money breakdown for domestic and international tv includes all of the Disney owned channels. Not just ESPN channels. So the 7.64 gets split between, ABC, ESPN and all of the Disney Channels. ABC probably gets more of that. Roughly $3.00 attributed to ESPN. So they are still making money from cable but not enough to worry about adding more Rutger type teams people don’t watch anyway in place of a team with a low ranked market but a good national following.
I’ve seen estimated that the whole bundle is over $9 and I think that $7+ number applies just to the ESPN family of products. That would align with things that I’ve seen over the years about ESPN being the most expensive bundle and explain why stations lose ESPN in negotiations trying to cut costs.

It would be good for UCF in the future to have a model that measured fan bases rather than markets. Just not sure that model is driving any of these decisions. I think they’re still driven on history and current standing with little regard for growth potential in the schools themselves.
 
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